THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS
At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.
This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
Welcome to Harmless Sky, and happy blogging.
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10,000 Responses to “Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs.”
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Hi Max et al
There are a mass of references on Becks site
http://www.egbeck@biokurs/de
which I shall start to work through in order to try to find the origin and accuracy of historic readings.
Max, if you have the time there are a couple of German refernces listed which do not appear to have an English translation. Are you able to have a quick skim through these in order to judge their reliability and what co2 figures and dates (if any) should be inserted on my chart as reference points? Thanks.
I have also emailed his site asking for his comments on a number of questions. I will let you know if I hear anything
TonyB
Max,
I don’t know; I don’t believe that “scientists” know either. What I do know is that climate does change, always has and always will…… and it has nothing to do with coal fired power plants or my car.
The modern day fortune tellers, (Hansen, Romm, Gore), who I equate with Rasputin, are continuously proven wrong.
I watched a very interesting program last night chronicling the history of the Dark Ages. The underlying theme was that negative temperature changes, coupled with various other factors, (plague, war, a systematic breakdown of society), conspired to impede economic and social development in Europe after the fall of the Western Roman Empire. Society thrived during warm periods…..population growth, trade, exchange of ideas/information and exploration were stifled during cooler periods. The human condition suffered immensely during this time, (which makes me wonder if that’s what the Alarmists have in mind or if they even consider this fact).
Alarmists do not seem to have a hearty grasp of history……climate history or otherwise. I believe that the +/-75 year of a person’s lifetime is equitable to the blink of an eye compared to the historical record. All too many politicians and idealists are quick to mark their “legacy” (and fortune), by propagating the latest sexy trend.
The evidence chronicled through the proxy data coincide with the historical texts. I believe it was Bob Clive, sometime ago, that provided text from the Anglo Saxon Chronicles and other source information correlating events with the proxy data. Alarmists dismiss chronicled information as “myth” and “legend” (as Peter is currently engaged in concerning Victorian CO2 measurements) because it doesn’t conform to their faith.
What do we know about the Dark Ages Cold Period as it was experienced in Europe?
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/2005-06-09/what.htm
The “Delphic Oracles” Gore and Hansen are proven wrong again. These mystics really don’t know when to quit.
The Sun Proves an Embarrassment to Climate Orthodoxers and Carbon Hysterics
{http}://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2008/11/sun-proves-embarassment-to-climate.html
Hi Brute
Way back I linked to a whole series of analysis- historic and scientific- regarding past climate events and their role in undermining great civilisations.
The start of the demise of the Western roman empire can be traced back to the freeezing of the Rhine in the AD300’s which allowed their enemy to walk across and attack them-their succesors in the Eastern roman empire flourished in another warm spell in the 600AD’s onwards. We have access to their climate references records rescued by the Hungarians when Byzantium was sacked by the Ottomans in the 1450’s.
There is a great deal of learned work about the rise and fall of empires and there is no doubt we flourish in warm times and are diminished in cold ones.
Not 15 miles from my house lies a medieval farm whose occupants eventually had to abandon it in the 1300’s as the climate cooled and they had to farm ever lower down the contour line. Barely 2 miles from this site is a bronze age one where again the inhabitants abandoned the site as it eventually grew too cold to grow crops,
Until five years ago I lived close by the battle site where King Alfred fought the Danes and halted their advance-often in terrible weather conditions. Conversely in warmer times the Vikings were able to sail far up the river and sack the local town as retribution for holding one of their chieftains hostage-the rivers and sea levels were higher then- as has been linked to before. William the Conqueror landed at a site that is now marooned a mile inland. Some of our great sea castles built after the arrival of the Normans have their sea gates high and dry as the sea levels dropped, rendering them useless.
Its all there for those who want too look and don’t believe that climate commenced in 1978 when satellites started to record information.
I despair at the abysmal level of historic knowledge of some of those setting the climate agenda -scientists, politicians-who quote modern climate events as ‘unprecedented’-they rarely are.
TonyB
Max,
Whatever happened to the Pie Thrower? The last that I heard he was extolling the virtues of nuclear power.
He must have graduated from college, got rid of the water pipe, hung up the Birkenstocks and peace signs and joined the ranks of the taxpaying citizens…..maybe realized what being a responsible adult is all about…..
Brute: you say (2571) that “next they’ll come for me and my family for expressing views that undermine the position of “the State””. Well, according to this (As Orwell Warned, Children Now Spy On Adults) it’s kids that may make it happen:
And a book to be published next year
The great thing about kids, says an article in the Guardian, is that they make
Sounds a bit like Peter. Scary stuff.
I threw the origanal version in there for Max. My boss is Austian/German and a close associate is German born. They always like to see their own language….I think it reminds them of their homeland and is “practice” for them (even when the message is as somber as this).
I was speaking with my nieces today; one 10 years of age, the other 8 years old. We were discussing politics, (as much as is possible with an 8 year old). The conversation turned to the recent Presidential election; They were told by their grammar school teacher that people who did not vote for Obama were racists. Yes, I fear for our future.
Original
Als die Nazis die Kommunisten holten,
habe ich geschwiegen;
ich war ja kein Kommunist.
Als sie die Sozialdemokraten einsperrten,
habe ich geschwiegen;
ich war ja kein Sozialdemokrat.
Als sie die Gewerkschafter holten,
habe ich nicht protestiert;
ich war ja kein Gewerkschafter.
Als sie die Juden holten,
habe ich geschwiegen;
ich war ja kein Jude.
Als sie mich holten,
gab es keinen mehr, der protestieren konnte.
Translation
When the Nazis came for the communists,
I remained silent;
I was not a communist.
When they locked up the social democrats,
I remained silent;
I was not a social democrat.
When they came for the trade unionists,
I did not speak out;
I was not a trade unionist.
When they came for the Jews,
I remained silent;
I was not a Jew.
When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.
Brute: sadly it seems (2582) that what your nieces’ teacher had to say may be a precursor of what I found so scary about the article I quoted at 2581.
Maybe spurred on by the sun being at the minimum point of its 11 year cycle, there seems to be quite a few predictions that the Arctic ice will make some sort of spectacular recovery in 2009.
Would anyone care to make it interesting? How about a small bet, Say US50. I’ll predict that there won’t be any major recovery as measured at the end of August 2009 and that the level of sea ice will be very close to its long term trend line. No higher than 6.5 million sq kilometers on this graph.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080904_Figure5.png
I concede here and now that there is a chance I could lose. We could well be due for upward spike in the graph, as happened in 1996 and 2001. It didn’t mean that global warming had ended then and it wouldn’t mean the end of global warming in 2009 , were it to occur.
But it gives you all a sporting chance. Any takers?
My apologies to anyone and everyone that had to suffer through my post #2582……spelling is atrocious……I typed it out in the little box at the bottom of the page as I was running out the door. Normally I type it out on a word document, (spelling/grammar check), before posting to avoid such embarrassment.
Yeah, Brute, The Martin Niemöller quote you posted tells it all. The Nazi period in Germany was horrifying. Der Spiegel has a feature article on Heinrich Himmler in its latest issue (sort of in memory of the 70th anniversary of the “Kristallnacht”, when the holocaust against the Jews really started to get rolling).
Of all the top-level creeps in the brief Nazi hierarchy, Himmler was probably the most insanely blood-thirsty.
German TV interviewed a Kristallnacht survivor (at the time a 17-year old Jewish girl living in Berlin). Her entire family was arrested and eventually killed, but she managed to escape (with help from a non-Jewish family). She said that, despite all the Nazi propaganda and the discrimination against Jews prior to November 1938, most Jews did not think that they were really in danger until the “Kristallnacht” (and then it was too late for most of them to escape).
A sad time in human history.
Max
Here’s Al Gore’s message to Obama – urging him to make action on “climate change” his top priority. I liked the second paragraph:
Spot the grossly misleading rhetoric.
Hey Peter,
Don’t keep coming back with the August NSIDC comparison. It’s out of date by two months, and the October 2008 Arctic sea ice recovery is even more astounding (one could even say “unprecedented”).
See my 2567 for an October up-date.
Now as for the 2009 prognosis, if it makes the same degree of recovery as 2008, we will have a sea ice extent 7% above the level that existed when the whole record started in 1979:
6.77 million sq. km. October 2007
8.40 million sq. km. October 2008
1.63 million sq. km. recovery from 2007 to 2008
If same recovery next year:
8.40 + 1.63 =
10.03 million sq. km. By October 2009
equals 7% more than
9.39 million sq. km. October 1979
Who knows what will happen? You don’t. I don’t. The NSIDC don’t.
But cheer up, Peter. The whole Arctic sea ice catastrophe may just quietly disappear all by itself in two short years. Won’t that make us all very happy?
We will know in a year.
Regards,
Max
Max,
Very interesting time historically, (in the evil, tragic sense).
Hi Robin,
Wow!
We knew that Al Gore was a bald-faced liar, but he has outdone himself in the quote you cite (2587).
“four unanimous reports”: strike the word “unanimous”
“the evidence is ‘unequivocal’”: strike “the evidence”; replace with “warming of somewhat less than 1 degree C over the past century”
“the melting of the north polar ice cap”: strike the entire phrase as unfounded
“other apocalyptic warnings from the planet itself”: strike the words “planet itself” and replace by “a handful of alarmist scientists”
“existential threat to the future of the human species”: strike entire phrase; replace with “computer generated prognosis of continued slightly warming temperatures”
“Our children and grandchildren…”: strike entire sentence as “hot air”
Replace with Mencken “hobgoblin” quote (check TonyB).
Why does Al, our pal, resort to this level of hyperbole and flat untruth?
(Don’t forget, he’s got a “feel good” Oscar and a “feel noble” Nobel Peace Prize on his mantle for being the “savior of our planet” – plus he has a piece of the carbon trading action that can make him even wealthier than he already is.)
Max
Max,
Re: your 2588. Is that a yes or a no to the bet?
August is a good month to choose because it corresponds to the minimum of the sea ice. The area is not the whole story of course. The thickness being the other important dimension. It is only perennial ice which can build up an increasing thickness over the years and what is left at the end of August can be classified as perennial ice.
Brute,
I’ve heard your “When the Nazis came for the communists…. ” quote many times before but it is surprising to hear it from someone of your political inclination. After the Communists, Social Democrats, Trade Unionists, and Jews had been removed there was no-one left to speak up.
Who they ‘didn’t come for’, would have included Conservatives (both social and economic), Liberals (large L), laissez faire capitalists, religious fundamentalists, and nationalists, who were closer than the groups you have mentioned to your own political affiliation.
What about them? They were still left. Why couldn’t they speak up up too?
Hi Brute,
You’re right; the 20th century will certainly go down in history as one of the bloodiest.
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/war-1900.htm
The 60+ years of Soviet communism plus the 12 years of Nazi Germany were probably the two most evil and murderous regimes (with the Soviets killing off more people in total, because of their longer length in power). Japanese genocides, the civil war in China plus murders of the Chinese communist regime were also the cause of many millions of deaths.
Sure, the 14th century was no picnic, either, with the 100-year war in Europe, Mongol massacre of Chinese, Tamerlane’s destruction of southern and western Asian populations, etc.
On top of that there was the Black Death, killer famines caused by a cooling climate at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and devastating earthquakes throughout Europe and Asia.
Historians tell us that there were 450 million inhabitants on our planet in 1300, but less than 400 million in 1400.
With the two World Wars, all its horrible massacres and genocides, bloody revolutions, politically forced mass famines, plus the killer flu epidemic at the end of WWI, etc. the 20th century saw many more human deaths (in absolute numbers) than the 14th.
Yet, despite all this devastation, world population grew from around 1.6 billion to just over 6 billion from 1900 to 2000 and world prosperity increased dramatically with the rapid technological advances, growth of industrialization and improvements in hygiene and medicine.
So which century was really the worse?
Regards,
Max
Hi Peter,
Ice is ice (perennial or not).
It’s just frozen water.
Most of it melts in the summer and freezes in the winter (both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, BTW). It’s a natural cycle.
And the (possibly less convenient for you) figures for October (rather than August) show a much more “dramatic”, yes even “unprecedented” (to put it into AGW verbiage), recovery over just 12 short months.
If this same level of recovery occurs over the next 12 months, we’re back to the level of 1979 when Arctic sea ice “history” started (according to NSIDC, anyway).
Get the point?
Believe Brute has brought this up as well.
Regards,
Max
PS You mention “thickness”. Any hard data here, Peter?
Hi Peter,
Had Martin Niemöller lived in Stalin’s Soviet Union (rather than Hitler’s Germany), the cast of characters would have been slightly different, but the message would have been the same.
You wrote to Brute: “Who they ‘didn’t come for’, would have included Conservatives (both social and economic), Liberals (large L), laissez faire capitalists, religious fundamentalists…”
This is a silly statement, Peter. These democratic (small D) parties were also disempowered during the Nazi regime (as they were in the Soviet Union).
Niemöller’s quotation was not a “left/right” debate, it was a condemnation of totalitarian regimes, no matter what their color or ideology.
Regards,
Max
Max,
“Most of it {ice] melts in the summer and freezes in the winter (both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, BTW). It’s a natural cycle.”
If the Antarctic ice were not perennial it would raise sea levels by around 100 metres. The same is goes for Greenland ice too except that the sea level rise would be less (around 10 metres ?) if that were to melt.
What you are saying about Arctic sea ice is just about true. Now, less than 50% is perennial, but it wasn’t always like that. Fortunately because it floats on the sea it does not raise sea levels when it melts. But if we ignore the lessons and let the Greenland or Antarctic ice masses melt in the future, even temporarily, it will of course be a different story.
………………
My comment on Niemoller were addressed to Brute. There was some belated oppostion to Hitler form the groups I mentioned but that was left until almost the end of the war when it really was too late.
I’d just like to congratulate Brute, which I should have done before, on having something good to say about Trade Unionists and Social Democrats!
Max ,
Sorry I forgot you asked for some info on ice thickness.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/082508.html (bottom of page)
I take it that you are declining the bet? If so, I suppose you should be congratulated on not believing your own BS!
Pete,
By then it was too late….which is the crux of the statement.
Who they “didn’t come for” were the National SOCIALISTS…….which isn’t really the point. The point is that they “came for” anyone and everyone that didn’t follow their ideology; which is the case regarding this topic……..manipulation of data, outright falsehoods regarding the subject and intimidation of those that disagree with the “official” global warming party line……members of government sponsored scientific institutions advocating political ideology.
No one spoke up until their ox was gored……by then it was too late.
Someone else wrote: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” I believe Voltaire……
Here we have a situation (global warming) where the evidence to support the theory is flimsy (at best) and find a concerted effort on behalf of organized government entities to suppress information contrary to this doctrine. We have outright government endorsement of a theory and indoctrination of children….government sponsored censorship and government sponsored spying (or at least surveillance) of family members and their activities.
Yes Pete, I vehemently disagree with your assertions regarding this topic. But the very last thing that I would do would be to suppress your views or prevent you in any way from expressing those views.
Maybe Hansen and Gore should read up on Voltaire.
Pete,
What is it with you and betting? Some kind of sickness?
Sheez, catch a flight to Vegas……get a hold of yourself already.
I’m not sure that there is unlimited freedom of speech even in America.
For instance if the Emergency Services were in the process of evacuating a building which was considered to be in danger of collapsing, would you be allowed to get in the way, by arguing that there wasn’t any danger at all, even though you were totally unqualified to express an opinion?
That’s a fair parallel for what you guys are doing right now. Trying to make out that there isn’t any danger when scientific opinion is overwhelmingly against you.