THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS
At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.
This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
Welcome to Harmless Sky, and happy blogging.
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10,000 Responses to “Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs.”
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Hi Peter,
This is the kind of list you need to post (with 600 names including qualifications) of scientists or meteorologists that have specifically stated that they support the premise that AGW is a serious problem.
If you are unable to do so, your statement that “many many more” scientists support this premise is unfounded and can be discarded as a hollow claim.
The list below includes those who have specifically stated that they do NOT support this premise.
This is a list of individuals on the Inhofe list that meet the definition of “qualified” (extracted from Eli Rabbett list)
Total scientists = 151
Total meteorologists = 52
Total 203 qualified individuals
(Note: Number is the number on Rabbett’s list. If there is no number, the individual was not included on Rabbett’s list.)
— Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research for the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia
3. Alexandre Aguiar Meteorologist of Brazil’s MetSul Weather Center
— Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia Geologist at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.
5. Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center
6. David Aldrich Meteorologist TV Philadelphia
9. Dr. Claude Allegre, French Geophysicist
10. Chris Allen Meteorologist of Kentucky Fox affiliate WBKO
14. Dr. August H. Auer (deceased), past professor of atmospheric science, University of Wyoming, previously chief meteorologist, Meteorological Service (MetService) of New Zealand .
18. Donald G. Baker of the University of Minnesota
21. Dr. Sallie Baliunas, astrophysicist and climate researcher, Boston, Mass.
22. Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg, Canada
25. Vladimir Bashkirtsev, of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
27. Dr. Franco Battaglia, a professor of Environmental Chemistry at the University of Modena in Italy
30. Paul G. Becker, a former chief meteorologist with the Air Force and former Colorado Springs chapter president of the American Meteorological Society.
33. Justin Berk, BS in meteorology from Cornell
34. Andre and Sally Bernier Meteorologists of WJW-TV, in Cleveland, Ohio. Andre has a BS in Meteorology from Lyndon State College,
35. Dr. Edward F Blick, Professor of Meteorology and Engineering at University of Oklahoma
42. Daniel Botkin, President of the Center for the Study of the Environment and Professor Emeritus in the department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology at the University of California
44. Dr. Simon Brassell, of the Department of Geological Sciences at the Indiana University
48. Bob Breck Chief Meteorologist of WVUE-TV in New Orleans
— Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society’s Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.
53. Dr. Reid Bryson (deceased), the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences)
(NL) Dr. Robert M. Carter, Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist
— Dr. Phil Chapman, Geophysicist, astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, served as staff physicist at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
57. Dr. Robert.M. Carter, professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
59. Dr. Christopher L. Castro, a Professor of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona **
61. Tom Chisholm Chief Meteorologist of WMTW ABC Portland, Maine
62. Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and NASA
63. Dr. Petr Chylek, adjunct professor, Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax
65. Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
69. John Coleman, Meteorologist Founder of The Weather Channel
71. Joseph Conklin Meteorologist
72. Dr. Paul Copper, FRSC, professor emeritus, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ont.
76. Dr. William R. Cotton of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University
78. Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC 4
81. Grant Dade Texas TV’s KLTV, a member of both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association,
82. Joseph D’Aleo served as the first Director of Meteorology at The Weather Channel and was the Chief Meteorologist at Weather Services International Corporation and served as chairman of the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.
83. Dr. Robert E. Davis, a Professor at University of Virginia, a former UN IPCC contributor and past president of the Association of American Geographers
84. Luc Debontridder, Climatologist at the Belgium Weather Institute’s Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI)
85. David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma, U.S.
— Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, Environmental Scientist and founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group
— Dr. Art V. Douglas, former Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska
89. Dr. David Douglass of the University of Rochester
91. Robert Durrenberger, past president of the American Association of State Climatologists
94. Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, U.S. 2
100. Dr. Hugh W. Ellsaesser, physicist/meteorologist, previously with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Calif.; atmospheric consultant.
102. Gary England, Meteorologist who pioneered the use of Doppler radar weather-forecasting
103. Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands
106. Bill Evans New York’s WABC-TV Senior Meteorologist
107. Dr. Cal Evans, Geochemist a prominent researcher who has advised the Alberta Research Council, the Natural Sciences, and Engineering Research Council of Canada
111. Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator and UN IPCC lead author and reviewer
116. Dr. Neil Frank, former director of the National Hurricane Center
— Dr. Patrick Frank, Chemist
117. Stewart Franks, PhD, Associate Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia
118. Dr. Oliver W. Frauenfeld, research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Division of Cryospheric and Polar Processes at the University of Colorado
119. Dr. Chris de Freitas, climate scientist, associate professor, The University of Auckland, N.Z.
120. Dr. Eigil Friis-Christensen is the director of the Danish National Space Centre
122. Ivan Frolov, the head of Russia’s Science and Research Institute of Arctic and Antarctic Regions
124. Dr. Serge Galam, director of research at the National Center of Scientific Research (CNRS) and member of a laboratory of Ecole Polytechnique
127. R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai’i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa
— Dr. David Gee, Geologist and chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, currently at Uppsala University in Sweden
129. Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey
131. Dr. Robert Giegengack the chair of Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania
136. Dick Goddard Ohio meteorologists TV
— Stanley B. Goldenberg Atmospheric Scientist at the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA
139. Dr. Mel Goldstein, a PhD Meteorologist on Connecticut’s TV News Channel 8
140. Sergei Golubchikov, Vice President of Russia’s National Geocryological Foundation
143. Brian van de Graaff Meteorologist TV
144. Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of ‘Climate Change 2001,’ Wellington, New Zealand
145. Dr. William Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU)
149. Eugenio Hackbart of the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center in Sao Leopoldo – Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
150. Dr. Keith D. Hage, climate consultant and professor emeritus of Meteorology, University of Alberta
152. Jeff Halblaub Senior Meteorologist of WSI Corporation
— Dr. Will Happer, Professor at the Department of Physics at Princeton University and Former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy
156. Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut
— Wilco Hazeleger, a senior scientist in the global climate research group at Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institure
161. Dr. Ben Herman, past director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona,
162. Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry
168. Art Horn, Meteorologist currently operating The ‘Art’ Of the Weather business
169. Douglas V. Hoyt, senior scientist at Raytheon (retired) and co-author of the book The Role of the Sun in Climate Change; previously with NCAR, NOAA, and the World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland 2
170. Warwick Hughes, a New Zealand earth scientist living in Perth
173. Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
175. Dr. Olafur Ingolfsson, a professor from the University of Iceland
— Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist and UN IPCC Scientist
176. Yury Izrael, the director of Global Climate and Ecology Institute, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and UN IPCC Vice President,
179. Craig James, Chief Meteorologist of a Michigan NBC TV affiliate
181. Meteorologist Mark Johnson
186. Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia
193. Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former Research Scientist Environment Canada; Editor “Climate Research” (03-05); Editorial Board Member “Natural Hazards, IPCC Expert Reviewer 2007
195. William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological organization’s Commission for Climatology
197. Paul Knight Penn State Climatologist **
198. Dr. James P. Koermer, a Professor of Meteorology and the director of the Meteorological Institute at Plymouth State University
202. Dr. Gerhard Kramm of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks
204. Dr. George Kukla, a research scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University 2
— Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.
206. Dr. A.T.J. de Laat, who specialized in atmospheric composition and climate research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
208. Dr. Christopher W. Landsea NOAA’s National Hurricane Center who served as a UN IPCC
209. Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand
212. Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary, Canada 2
213. David R. Legates, PhD, Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, U.S.
217. Marcel Leroux, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS 4
220. Richard S. Lindzen, PhD, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S
— Dr. Philip Lloyd, Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer and UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author
223. A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors
226. Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia, U.S. 2
228. Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
229. Rob Marciano CNN Meteorologist
230. Dr. Richard Mackey Statistician authored a 2007 peer-reviewed study which found that the solar system regulates the earth’s climate. The paper was published August 17, 2007 in the Journal of Coastal Research
233. Augusto Mangini of the University of Heidelberg in Germany 2
234. Galina Mashnich of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
236. John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist, former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand 2
237. Alister McFarquhar, PhD, international economist, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K. 2
238. Peter McGurk, Senior Meteorologist with WSI Corporation, a provider of weather-driven business solutions to such clients as CNN, FOX, NBC, American Airlines, Delta, and FedEX
243. Bill Meck, Chief Meteorologist for an NBC affiliate
247. Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Canada
248. Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, research professor of environmental sciences, University of Virginia 2
249. Dr. Daniel W. Miles, a former professor of physics who earned his PhD from the University of Utah
254. H. Michael Mogil, a 30-year veteran of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), who is certified by the American Metrological Society and currently owns the “How the Weatherworks” consulting firm
261. Dr./Cdr. M. R. Morgan, FRMS, climate consultant, former meteorology advisor to the World Meteorological Organization. Previously research scientist in climatology at University of Exeter, U.K.
262. Dr. Dick Morgan, former director of Canada’s Met/Oceano Policy and Plans, a marine meteorologist and a climate researcher at both Exeter University and the Bedford Institute of Oceanography
17. Dr. Nils-Axel Morner, emeritus professor of paleogeophysics & geodynamics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
263. Lubos Motl, PhD, physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
266. Dr. Tad Murty, former senior research scientist, Dept. of Fisheries and Oceans, former director of Australia’s National Tidal Facility and professor of earth sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide; currently adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
269. Mark Nolan Meteorologist TV
270. Gary Novak Microbiologist
271. Mr. David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa, Canada 2
272. James J. O’Brien, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University, U.S.
274. Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia
277. Jim Ott, Meteorologist formerly of WTMJ-TV in Wisconsin
279. Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem 2
280. Morgan Meteorologist Palmer of Texas TV’s KLTV
281. Garth W. Paltridge, PhD, atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia 2
282. R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Canada 4
— James A. Peden, Atmospheric physicist formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh.
284. Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota, U.S. 3
285. Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., presently senior scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder
286. Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia 4
287. Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan, Canada
290. Dr. Andreas Prokoph, adjunct professor of earth sciences, University of Ottawa; consultant in statistics and geology
293. VK Raina, India’s leading Glaciologist
294. Dr. Denis G. Rancourt, Professor of Physics and an Environmental Science researcher at the University of Ottawa,
296. Bernie Rayno, Senior Meteorologist with AccuWeather
298. William E. Reifsnyder Meteorologist Forestry
299. Dr. Paul Reiter, professor, Institut Pasteur, Unit of Insects and Infectious Diseases, Paris, France. Expert reviewer, IPCC Working group II, chapter 8 (human health)
306. Erich Roeckner of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
308. R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S
312. Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C., Canada 2.
313. Arthur T. “Terry” Safford III, Meteorologist a retired Lt Col. of the U.S. Air Force
319. Mark Scirto Chief Meteorologist of Texas TV’s KLTV,
322. Bruce Schwoegler, former U.S. Navy meteorologist and Boston broadcast meteorologist
325. Tom V. Segalstad, PhD, (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology, University of Oslo, Norway
326. Dr. Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences
327. Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA, U.S. 3
328. Dr. Nir Shaviv, one of Israel’s top, young, award-winning scientists
329. Glen Shaw, a Professor of Physics at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks
— Dr. Joanne Simpson, Atmospheric Scientist and PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”
336. S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and former director, U.S. Weather Satellite Service 4
— Hajo Smit, Meteorologist and former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.
— Dr. G LeBlanc Smith, a retired Principal Research Scientist with Australia’s CSIRO
341. Dr. Joe Sobel of Accuweather, winner of the American Meteorological Society 2005 Award for Broadcaster of the Year
342. Dr. Willie Soon Harvard-Smithsonian Center Astrophysicist.
343. Dr. Oleg Sorochtin of the Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences 2
344. James Spann Meteorologist of Alabama ABC TV
345. Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S. 3
346. Chief Meteorologist Karl Spring of Duluth, Minnesota, who is certified by both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association
350. Bill Steffen Meteorologist of Grand Rapids, Michigan
351. Herb Stevens, Meteorologist one of the original meteorologists at The Weather Channel
352. Dr. Hans von Storch, the Director of Institute for Coastal Research of the GKSS Research Centre, a professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg **
354. Henrik Svensmark Danish National Space Centre 2
356. Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Professor of Meteorology at Iowa State University and a former project scientist with the National Aeronautics and Space Administratio**
357. Mr. George Taylor, Dept. of Meteorology, Oregon State University; Oregon State climatologist; past president, American Association of State Climatologists 3
360. Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
363. Tim Thornton, who holds degrees in Meteorology and Computer Science, publishes the website “The Global Warming Heretic.
— Dr. Eduardo Tonni, Paleontologist of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata
369. Anton Uriarte, a professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Basque Country in Spain
371. Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, professor and Canada Research Chair in environmental studies and climate change, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria
372. Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD, geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand
373. Dr. Jan Veizer, professor emeritus of University of Ottawa
—Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico
374. Dr. Chris Walcek is a professor at the University at Albany in NY and a Senior Research Associate at the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
378. Dr. Fred Ward, who earned his PhD in Meteorology from MIT and is a former meteorologist for Boston TV
380. Anthony Watts, former meteorologist for KHSL-TV, a CBS-TV affiliate
381. Dr. Charles Wax of Mississippi State University and past president of the American Association of State Climatologists
382. Dan Webster, Ohio meteorologists
383. Dr. Edward J. Wegman, Bernard J. Dunn Professor, Department of Statistics and Department Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S. 2
— Dr. Bruce West, A U.S Army Chief Scientist
385. Chuck Wiese Meteorologist
389. Kevin Williams Meteorologist of the New York based WEATHER-TRACK and Chief Meteorologist at WHEC-TV in Rochester
390. Dr. Richard C. Willson of Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research
391. Dr. Ian Wilson of the University of Southern Queensland, Australia, specializes in statistical analysis and astrophysics research, and was a former operations astronomer at the Hubble Space Telescope Institute in Baltimore, MD
393. Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland
396. David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng., UN IPCC Expert Reviewer, energy consultant, Virginia, U.S. 4
— Dr. Miklós Zágoni, Physicist and environmental researcher
404. Dr. Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists and a retired Professor of Advanced Physics at the University of Bologna in Italy
405. Dr. Jeff Zweerink of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)
Whew! Lots of individuals there, Peter.
Now let’s see your list of “many many more” who have stated that they support the premise of a serious problem from AGW.
It’s your turn to get specific, Peter. Let’s see if you are up to the task.
Regards,
Max
Peter 5149
The list you quoted was from WG 2 which is dealing with mitigation and includes very worthy people no doubt, but a rather different category to those working on the cause in WG1.
You will be quoting WG3 next, where we have insurance assessors, engineers, Greenpeace and Oxfam activists who get included in the overall total.
TonyB
Max,
Your list is just a joke.
What publications have 95% of these guys ever produced? None at all.
You suggest I should include qualifications. What are Chuck Wiese’s? (Meteorologist) Has he ever made a contribution to the science?
If you want names just look at the hundreds who are referenced by the IPCC. They aren’t referenced so much as for what they think as for what they have shown. Or for the evidence they present. Maybe that’s a bit too subtle a difference for you to comprehend. So let me give you one of my analogies.
In a criminal court, at least this is the way it works in Australia, witnesses are called. Questions are put by prosecution and defence counsel as to the evidence they can present to the case.
The judge doesn’t just ask them “Well do you think he did it?” You do? Ok let put down one vote for guilty. Next witness please!
The IPCC don’t go in for lists of names of those who are of the opinion that AGW is a serous problem. They choose to reference the science they have contributed.
Re: #5152, Max and Peter
I only glanced at the list, but it’s interesting how often the term ‘meteorologist’ turns up. But of course that isn’t quite the same as climatology and I’m sure that, academically, they’re far less well qualified to speak on that subject than Pachauri (Engineer), de Boer (Sociologist) or Steiner (PPE).
This link from RealCLimate caught my eye last night:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13740-clearing-smog-reveals-true-extent-of-global-warming.html
It would seem that for some researchers and science journalists it is quite acceptable to close their minds to the GMT data if it is inconvenient. (See para 2)
Would such a thing be possible without attracting ridicule in any discipline other than climate science? But I’m sure that both the researchers and the journalist who wrote the article are immensely well qualified, on paper at least.
Mar 23, 2009
Canadian Prairie Winter Temperature Anomalies Drop By 6.6- 7.1 Degrees C in Just Three Years
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Average_Winter_Temperature_Anomalies_Drop_By_6.pdf
TonyN,
Rajendra Pachauri was elected in April 2002 to the chair of the IPCC. His was a controversial choice. It was widely felt by the scientific community that, as you suggest, the occupant of the chair should come from a background of climate science. However the Bush Administration had different ideas. No doubt they were hoping that an engineer and economist would bring about a significant change in the reporting of the IPCC.
Recently the criticism of his credentials has come from almost entirely from climate sceptics. Which strikes us a bit rich after they put him there in the first place. Is this because, and to his credit, he hasn’t proved to be the stooge and placeman that many climate scientists feared?
Max,
I hope I didn’t give the impression that I was anti-American with my jibe about religious seminaries being mickey mouse.
Of course there are some good universities in the USA. Let’s see what turns up in first place when we Google for climate change on their sites:
UCLA
http://www.international.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=86846
MIT . I was expecting something about Lindzen, but instead..
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2005/climate-speth.html
NY Uni
http://www.nyu.edu/public.affairs/releases/detail/1548
Maybe the more Ivy league unis wouldn’t be part of the great conspiracy?
Yale:
http://yalepress.yale.edu/yupbooks/book.asp?isbn=9780300119800
Harvard?:
http://www.harvardscience.harvard.edu/environments/articles/study-shows-escalating-climate-change-impacts
Lets have a look in Canada. They are known for being practical people.
Toronto:
http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/lecture-and-seminar-series/colloquium/events/copy8_of_peter-galison/view
All very straightforward stuff. Nothing about broken hockey sticks. Nothing about AGW having stopped. Nothing about Sen Inhofe’s magnificant 600 or whatever. What on earth is going on? You might be able to sympathise with Chairman Mao a little more. He was very unhappy with Chinese academics in the early sixties. It was one reason he started his cultural revolution which emptied the universities. Professors of Physics were required to forget about all that nonsense and learn how to pick rice instead.
Hi All
Given the direction the discussion is currently going on this thread there is a very timely post over on icecap.
http://joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/skeptics_handbook_2-0.pdf
I imagine most of you have seen it before, but its a helpful reminder that in science the “my gang is bigger than your gang” arguement is futile.
Peter
That was not a criticism of Pachauri at all, just a suggestion that the same criteria should either apply to both sides of the debate or neither.
So far as the circumstances of his appointment are concerned I’ve heard that allegation before, but have never seen any evidence that it is more than an internet myth. Any chance of a reference?
That isn’t a snark, if it really is true I’d like to know.
Robin,
You might want to write to your MP about this sort of thing:
(You might want to take a stiff drink before taking a look.)
the Hadley website.
This is for years 5 and 6. (10 -11 year olds)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/primary/climate_change_KS2.html
Al Gore is even handing out prizes to some UK schools:
http://www.4ecotips.com/eco/article_show.php?aid=1302&id=231
Globalcool!
http://www.globalcool.org/about/projects/15/152/Educating-children-in-UK-schools-about-climate-change
“It makes me want to save the world and make it a better place to live in.”
Adrianne, age 7
A whole lost generation!
Peter,
I’ve just read through those links you posted. Mostly they are about the impacts of climate change (quite sensible really) nothing to do with cause.
I wonder though if you read the Canadian one all the way through. It’s a seminar to discuss the IPCC report, and states something along the lines of human CO2 was the main driver of the 20th century and will be in the 21st, except the absolutely HUGE caveat they put it. Gave me a chuckle.
I should add that i mean the links from 5156
TonyN,
I think we’ve discussed how Robert Watson was deposed and replaced with R. Pachauri before.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Watson_(scientist)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1940117.stm
Exxonmobil Memo
http://www.nrdc.org/media/docs/020403.pdf
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0420-03.htm
” …..and nothing to do with the cause?”
What about this from the MIT link?
“There is now clear consensus among scientists that Earth’s climate is being affected by the greenhouse gases generated by human activities. ‘We’ve seen these credible forecasts and credible warnings coming from the scientific community for the better part of three decades,’ Speth said. ‘But the influence of all the good science on policy and action has been puny compared with the need.'”
But yes, by and large, the scientific community has moved on from this sort of argument to the next level of discussion.
Peter reur 5163
Consensus is not a respected concept in science, this has been discussed previously.
I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts re the caveat in the canadian link.
Peter, I did say mostly
Peter: you said (#5145) that Max and I had questioned “the validity of the scientific consensus on AGW”. That’s correct – insofar as it went. But I had two questions: 1. Is there a consensus? 2. Is consensus important? I’ll expand on each.
1. Is there a consensus?
First, it is necessary to define [a] what “consensus” means; [b] what the consensus must be about; and [c] whom it must comprise to be relevant:
A In the present case, consensus means “the overwhelming majority” of all relevant scientists (see C) throughout the world accepts the entire proposition defined at B.
B The proposition is that (i) the world’s temperature has increased over the past 50 -100 years; (ii) the increase is wholly or largely the result of human activity; (iii) the increase is likely to continue; (iv) if it does, will be a serious threat to the planet’s ecology; and (v) urgent action is essential now to avoid such harm.
C The consensus must comprise properly qualified scientists who are engaged in any aspect of the scientific study of the climate; the “climate” means the world’s long-term weather systems. (I refer to these as “relevant scientists”.)
Max and Brute (#5088) have identified by name many relevant scientists who do not accept the entire proposition defined at 1(b) – and Max has referred to many more who do not, all similarly identifiable. It seems probable that there are others (possibly many others) who have not been identified – especially in Russia, China and India. You have provided some interesting links. Let’s examine those in your #5156. As Barelysane says, they’re quite sensible. But here’s a quick analysis: one (MIT) refers to a relevant scientist who appears to accept the 1(b) proposition, two (UCLA and Harvard) to medical doctors, one (NY University) to an economist, one (Yale) to a book edited by a biologist and one (Toronto) to a talk by a relevant scientist who says in the outline to his talk, “Emissions reductions made over the next few decades will not substantially affect the rate of warming of the planet over the short to medium term”. Hmm – maybe two climate scientists who accept the proposition out of six references, possibly only one. Not quite an “overwhelming majority”. BTW just because Professor Speth says there’s a consensus doesn’t prove that he’s right.
Peter – I have no doubt at all that there are very many respected scientists (maybe even a majority) who accept the entire 1(b) proposition. Nevertheless, you’re nowhere near establishing that the consensus of the overwhelming majority is in favour it.
2. Is consensus important?
So, it seems unlikely that your consensus exists. But, even if it does – as Barelysane says – consensus is not a respected concept in science. It would be a sad day if scientific truth were to be determined by majority orthodoxy or established authority.
Had that been the case in the nineteenth century, Darwin would not have prevailed. In my #5135, I quoted Thomas Huxley (“…there may be wisdom in a multitude of counsellors, but it is only in one or two of them”). Here’s another:
Hi Peter,
Reur 5153.
Where’s your LIST, Peter?
Do not criticize the list I posted until you have posted your list of at least 600 scientists or meteorologists along with their qualifications, who have specifically stated that AGW is a serious threat.
It is truly time to either validate your claim that “many many more” support the notion of AGW being a serious threat than those that do not, or to admit that this claim was unfounded and can be ignored.
Once we have both posted lists with qualifications, etc. then we can start discussing the details of each list. NOT BEFORE.
Awaiting your list, Peter.
Regards,
Max
Hi Peter,
BTW I fully agree with Robin and Barelysane that “consensus” is not a meaningful concept when discussing science.
It is, however, a valid concept when discussing politics (and the AGW issue has both a scientific and political aspect, which are often difficult to separate).
But our discussion at this point relates specifically to your statement that “many many more” scientists have openly stated that AGW is a serious problem than those that have publicly stated that it is not.
I took the meaning “many many more” to mean at least three-fourths of the total.
So if I present you a list with 200 individuals who are qualified to have an opinion on this topic and who have stated that AGW is not a serious threat, then I expect you to quickly reply with a list of at least 600 equally qualified individuals who have stated publicly that AGW is a serious threat (listing their qualifications, as I have done).
Get the point here, Peter?
You made a claim.
I challenged its veracity.
You can now either present the evidence to support your claim or concede that it was unfounded and withdraw it.
A very simple procedure, actually.
Regards,
Max
Hi Barelysane,
The Joanne Nova “Skeptics’ Handbook” is excellent.
Very straightforward and highly convincing.
Thanks for posting the link.
Max
Hi Peter,
Looks like you “shot yourself in the foot” again with a silly claim that turns out to be untrue. In attempting to discredit the list of AGW skeptics, which I posted, you claimed (5153):
“What publications have 95% of these guys ever produced? None at all.”
So I did just a very cursory check of the following 17 individuals on the list:
Baliunas, Bryson, Carter, Cotton, Deming, Gray, Hoyt, Idso, Jaworowski, Lupo, Michaels, Singer, Solanki, Soon, Spencer, Taylor, Willson.
(I stopped checking after reaching 17, since this exceeds your 5% figure, but I am sure that many others on the list have also “produced publications”.)
I saw that these individuals had “produced” an average of around 150 “publications” each.
So, Peter, your claim is unfounded (as are most of your statements).
My advice to you: Do not make silly claims when you have no notion whether or not they are true; someone might just check the veracity of your statement, and you just might face the embarrassment (as now) that your claim has been exposed as a LIE.
Regards,
Max
“I fully agree with Robin and Barelysane that “consensus” is not a meaningful concept when discussing science.”
This the way scientific consensus works:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus
It doesn’t really matter what you guys think it means or whether you agree with it or not. It doesn’t work on the length of lists of those who agree and disagree for a start. If you have a problem with the concept, I’m afraid you’ll just have to get over it.
Am I being accused of exaggeration with my 95% claim? My father used to say that if he’d told me once he’d told me a million times that I shouldn’t do that. So what are you saying? That its only 85%? I mean peer reviewed papers too. I can’t see us ever agreeing on which papers should be included and which shouldn’t.
Did someone mention meteorologists? Did you all notice who they’d given a prize to this year?
http://www.desmogblog.com/american-meteorological-society-gives-top-honors-dr-james-e-hansen
Let’s hope they were a bit more democratic in their decision making process that those crusty old scientists. Maybe we should send our congratulations on the award too?
Something that I have noticed, (and I could be wrong as I haven’t done a formal study), is that “belief” in Anthromorphic Global Warming and the panic stricken prophecies that surround this delusion are generally embraced by Western scientists. I haven’t really noticed a large majority of Russian, Chinese, Middle Eastern, Far Eastern scientists embracing the theory.
Max/Robin,
Am I wrong? It seems to be, generally, a notion held by scientists of “Western”, as opposed to, “Eastern” societies…….Seems the “consensus” is among Western scientists exclusively?
At the recent International Conference on Climate Change meeting, Dr. Willie Soon gave a presentation showing that the sun plays a greater role in our climate than atmospheric CO2.
http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork09/PowerPoint/Willie_Soon.ppt
The most powerful part of the presentation was the graph comparing the physically observed CO2 correlation with Arctic temperature to that for solar activity and Arctic temperature. This comparison gets to the very root of the problem with the AGW hypothesis.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3428/3383407711_9620d165dc_b.jpg
The curve shows two interesting things about Arctic temperature (up there where Peter is so concerned about the melting sea ice).
First, it is apparent that the warming of the 1930s and 1940s in the Arctic was at least equal to or slightly greater than the most recent warming, despite the fact that there was very little increase in atmospheric CO2 at that time.
The second point that is evident is that the correlation between CO2 and Arctic temperature is far less robust than the correlation between solar activity and Arctic temperature.
It appears that the sun, not atmospheric CO2, is causing Arctic temperatures to rise thereby melting the Arctic sea ice.
As Peter likes to say, “a picture is worth a thousand words.” This one is powerful.
Max
Hey Peter,
In your 5171 you wrote, “Am I being accused of exaggeration with my 95% claim? My father used to say that if he’d told me once he’d told me a million times that I shouldn’t do that. So what are you saying? That its only 85%?”
Looks to me as though you are “moving the goalposts”.
I had defined your “many many more” to mean a majority of 75% versus 25%, which meant that you needed to come up with a list of 600 scientists plus meteorologists that have gone on record that “AGW is a serious problem”, along with their qualifications.
To substantiate your new claim, Peter, you’ll have to come up with a list of:
1,130 scientists plus meteorologists to support a 85% claim or
3,800 scientists plus meteorologists to support a 95% claim.
Peter, when you’re in a hole, stop digging. Don’t make your life more difficult for yourself than it already is.
Just bring me the list of 600 scientists or meteorologists that have gone on record that AGW is a serious problem.
I’m still waiting, Peter, but it appears that you are having some difficulty in delivering.
C’mon Peter. Get with it or your claim will sound pretty hollow and we can all discard it as untrue.
Regards,
Max
Hi Peter,
To give you a bit of an incentive to move vigorously in providing your “list of 600”, I believe we should set a definite timeline.
If you are unable to provide this list, along with credentials and evidence that each individual has expressed the opinion that AGW is a serious problem by March 27 at the latest (3 days after I posted the list of 200 “skeptics”), I will assume that you have no real evidence to back your “many many more” claim and that this claim is, therefore, a lot of unsubstantiated “hot air” that can be ignored.
In this case, the “85%” or even “95%” claim is even more absurd.
The ball is back in your court, Peter.
Regards,
Max