THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS
At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.
This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
Welcome to Harmless Sky, and happy blogging.
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One reason I characterised Rudd’s speech as “unwise” is that it has prompted some excellent responses that can only further the cause he so vehemently opposes. One was the splendid Joanne Nova tirade (see 8140) and I link to two more at 8141. Here’s yet another (by Marc Morano) – arguably the best of all.
Here’s another comment on Rudd’s speech – by Roger Pielke Jr. A quotation:
.
I’m sure Kevin Rudd will be grateful for your political advice but he seems to be doing OK without it. He’s had a few problems with public opinion over asylum seekers recently but nevertheless the Australian newspaper has just reported:
“In better news for the Government, Kevin Rudd was still way ahead of Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s preferred prime minister, 63 per cent to 19 per cent.”
The UK’s Gordon Brown might want to ask him how its done. So it just goes to show that straight talking on climate change doesn’t have to be electorally unpopular.
Peter M:
Are you surt that quote is from The Australian? Google didn’t seem to be able to find it for me, but it did find this, datelined 2nd Nov 2009:
Perhaps Rudd and Brown will have an opportunity to to cry on each others shoulders when they meet up at Copenhagen next month.
PeterM: I didn’t ask you if Kevin Rudd was “doing OK“, I asked if you agreed (following the logic of your 8146) that his recent outburst against “deniers” “effectively excludes [him] from the scientific process” or even means he must be “dismissed as a … right wing nutter“. Perhaps you’d be good enough to answer that. Thanks.
Re my new “green” friends (see 8143), here’s the text of an email I sent to some of them (following up on our discussion on Tuesday):
Hi Peter
You wrote (8145) of the recent Lindzen and Choi study,
Wrong, Peter. The empirical data derived from the ERBE physical observations showed that total net outgoing (SW + LW) radiation over the tropics increases with surface temperature, rather than decreases (as assumed by all the IPCC model simulations).
A major part of this was caused by an observed increase in the outgoing SW radiation with warming.
This results in a strongly negative total net feedback with warming, and a calculated 2xCO2 climate sensitivity of 0.5°C.
Adjusting this for the entire planet (not only the vast tropical regions, where most of the incoming SW radiation occurs) results in a global 2xCO2 impact of 0.7°C.
As a result, there is no real threat from anthropogenic greenhouse warming as projected by the model simulations.
That is “what it means”, Peter, like it or not!
I would have though that you would be happy to hear such good news, but somehow you are still pessimistically awaiting a virtual man-made doomsday that will never happen.
Max
Hi Peter,
You seemed offended by the word “scam” when you wrote to Robin:
Yes, the “AGW scare” is a “scam”. By that I am referring to the misuse of the computer outputs by politicians to “scare” the populace into supporting a carbon tax bill. This fear mongering to support a political agenda is a “scam” in the true sense of the word (check your PM Rudd for a practical example).
The “scientific processes” (as you call the exaggerated computer simulations and alarming IPCC reports) are being used to support this “scam”, but are not necessarily an inherent part of the “scam”, itself, in my opinion, insofar as he “scientists” (and computer nerds involved) may actually believe in the validity of their computer simulations.
[Brute may have a different opinion on this.]
Check Peter Taylor for his reference to a collusion of interests. It is a very succinct and accurate analysis of what is going on. Are the scientists innocently playing into the hands of power-seeking politicians and profit-seeking corporate executives, all in the name of “saving the planet”? Let’s assume that this is the case in most instances.
But I will stay with calling the misuse of the computer outputs by politicians to frighten the populace into supporting a carbon tax bill a “scam” (because that is exactly what it is).
Max
Hi Peter,
You wrote:
Ho, ho! I am afraid you are a bit naive and not 100% correct on that statement. There are several examples where IPCC ignored, rejected or failed to accept as correct scientific reports, which did not support the premise of AGW.
These cover almost all of the IPCC claims.
The IPCC theme song seems to have been that old tune, “Accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative…”
Max
Hi Peter,
You apparently missed (8145) this part of the Lindzen and Choi conclusion on 2xCO2 climate sensitivity based on the empirical ERBE data:
Got it now?
Max
No doubt there will be comments about the Plimer lecture tomorrow. I’ve put up a new thread for these here:
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=233
or
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=234
So no discussion of the Plimer lecture on this thread please.
Robin (8156)
Excellent summary.
If your “green friends” are logical thinkers, they may take note and check out some of the AGW claims more closely.
If they are religious “believers” in AGW, they will adhere to their religious belief and consider you a “right wing nutter” (as Peter puts it) for daring to question this belief.
Max
Max,
We need a psychiatrist to chime in here. I believe there are different personality types that believe in the AGW mumbo-jumbo for different reasons.
I believe that there are people that absolutely know, deep in their psyche that the “scientific” evidence is a load of Bull; however, publicly support the premise either for financial gain or because the proposed remedies fit their political ideology perfectly.
There’s another group that support the premise because simply because their political opposite do not (which fits into the above group).
There are those that are simply lazy and believe anything that they’re told to believe………Many people are simply “followers”. They are obsessively self conscience and seek approval from the larger group in an effort to “fit in” and latch onto the AGW “cause” because everybody else does.
May people shun organized religion because they deem themselves to be “chic” or “avant garde” and turn to “environmentalism” to fill the void in their lives.
There are others that are mad at the world and seek to blame their personal failures on someone/something. AGW gives them the excuse to blame [insert corporate evildoer here].
If I had the time (and a degree in psychology) I’d try to sort them all out.
One observation that I have made is that (generally) politically left leaning individuals also swallow the AWG nonsense hook line and sinker. They’re in love with the “remedies” as long as they aren’t applied to themselves. These are generally weak willed people that are seeking a shoulder to cry on and avoid taking responsibility for themselves……the “entitlement” crowd.
Me? I’m making buckets of money relieving guilt ridden Leftists of their money (which is one reason that I post anonymously).
I don’t publicly state my views……(mixing business and politics is bad business) and in fairness to myself, my products and solutions save my clients money with an ROI of (normally) one year.
I’ll have to ask my psychiatrist friend about these gullible personality types and the character defects that drive people to believe in global warming.
Hi Brute
Thanks for your analysis.
I’m no psychiatrist either, so I can only guess what drives the AGW-believers to their faith.
It is clear to me that it is not based upon reason. For when a new scientific study based on actual empirical data shows that there is no real threat from AGW due to a natural regulation of our climate that prevents runaway warming (Lindzen and Choi, 2009), a reasonable person would be relieved and happy.
But the AGW-faithful either simply stick their heads in the sand and pretend that the good news never happened or try to interpret the good news so that it is really bad news.
I believe there is a doomsday cult mentality here. This is nothing new, of course. There have been doomsday cults for thousands of years. Most of these predict the “end of the world” with “human guilt” as the underlying reason for our demise. This one is no different.
Of course these doomsday predictions have invariably been wrong, because doomsday has never arrived. But the followers of each new doomsday cult are absolutely certain that “this time it’s real”.
In today’s AGW case there is not only a doomsday cult in action, but hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money at work, with the prospect of even higher sums for politicians to shuffle around if a global carbon tax (direct or indirect) is implemented. Not only do the politicians smell the power that this will bring them, but corporate executives also smell the prospect of government subsidies and profits to be made from the craze. And the scientists do their “climate change studies” with taxpayer funding provided by the politicians, occasionally releasing a bit of alarming news to an eager press.
These are those that hope to profit from the AGW craze. No psychological study is required for these individuals, since they are driven by the desire for power and/or financial gain. They are not necessarily doomsdayers themselves, but they know the value of scaremongering to frighten a gullible public into supporting their agenda.
Max
Max,
Yes, a variety of Neurosis involved.
Seriously, I’m going to talk to my friend and do some research in an attempt to catagorize the AGW believer personality types.
For instance….I don’t believe your average, run of the mill, Harmless Sky AGW believer is motivated by money……more the socialist, ideological, political, dreamer, revolutionary type…….the “anti-establishment” malcontent…..
Robin,
Kevin Rudd routinely engages in the sort of robust political language which probably wouldn’t go down too well in, say, the chambers of the Royal Society. However, its not his or any politician’s job to get directly involved in the scientific process. Unless, perhaps, they happen to possess specific knowledge themselves but I can’t think of any examples right now. Certainly not Kevin Rudd.
Their role is to listen to the best scientific advice possible on environmental issues, which in Australia comes from the CSIRO not industry pressure groups like the so called IPA. He’s certainly listening to them more attentively than the previous Australian government but whether it is going to be translated into real action remains to be seen.
Max,
Lindzen seems to refer to a previous paper by himself to justify his ‘factor of two’. If he write another couple of papers he can then, of course, have three references to support his ‘factor of two’. It really just a bit of incestuous handwaving with little to support it.
Empirical measurements (you guys are always asking for that) show that temperature anomalies well in excess of the 0.7 deg figure mentioned by Lindzen in many regions. It the thermal inertia of the oceans that is slowing down the warming elsewhere.
http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/myths/images/temperature-records/Fig1-2008gmt.gif
Re 8156, I got an answer from my main addressee (the Green Party candidate). Here’s a (big) extract:
As you can see, he’s obviously a decent person. He does not I suggest, Brute, really fit any of your categories: he’s a genuine AGW believer, he’s not lazy or aggressively self-conscious, I don’t think he’s filling a void in his life or is a personal failure and I’m sure he’s not “in love with the “remedies” as long as they aren’t applied to [himself]”.
Here’s my reply:
PeterM: so you think that, although it’s OK for Kevin Rudd to indulge in a stream of absurdly insulting invective (see my 8148 for some choice examples), it’s seriously wrong for Max (not “directly involved in the scientific process” either) to have made the relatively mild prediction that “the AGW scare will have been exposed as a scam” – so wrong indeed that he should be “just dismissed as [one of] a bunch of right wing nutters”.
Why?
Robin,
You have to distinguish the political from the scientific aspect on AGW. Or, Climate change as President Bush and his advisors decided to rename it.
Scientists are much more polite to each other than politicians, and different social mores apply in the two arenas. I’m not sure just exactly what Kevin Rudd said that you considered too vitriolic, or “absurdly insulting invective”, as you put it, but you need to get over it – maybe grow a thicker skin!
On the other hand, you aren’t going to be able to be taken seriously by calling out scientists for being part of a scam and a conspiracy. You may think it unfair but ‘them’s the rules’!
Peter: first, let’s get one thing clear. I do not (and never have) call “out scientists for being part of a scam and a conspiracy”. I know you wish I had – but I haven’t. Get used to it.
As for Rudd, how about “bald-faced denial of global scientific, economic and environmental reality” and “utterly contemptuous towards our children’s interest in the future”? He too was talking about scientists. So, tell me, if you think that’s OK, why Max’s mild prediction that “the AGW scare will have been exposed as a scam” is so unacceptable that he should be “just dismissed as [one of] a bunch of right wing nutters”? Thanks.
Pete,
A hypothetical situation……
You’ve purchased a new automobile.
The manufacturer’s estimate is that the car will travel 400 miles on a tank of gas.
Do you rely on the estimate or gasoline gauge when driving?
Robin,
To people like Brute, there isn’t much difference between those on the left of the political spectrum and the Greens but that’s quite an uninformed view.
Its not too far a step for Green politics to become Malthusian. The attitude of the left to Malthus has probably been defined by Marx who described Malthusianism as an ‘lampoon on the human race’.
The most famous present day Malthusian is probably Prof Albert Bartlett. He does a pretty good job in these series of videos. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
It is an argument which deserves serious study.
Robin,
You say “He {Kevin Rudd] too was talking about scientists.” Was he?
I took him to mean more the sort of people who contribute to various climate change denialist blogs with “their own personal intuitions, their own personal prejudices and their deeply ingrained political prejudices and using logic that belongs in a casino, not a science lab”.
Sounds like he’s got it about right!
Brute,
I’m not sure what you are getting at, but I might just say that I’ve never purchased a new vehicle.
I’d like to say that it’s concern for the environment but you can get a perfectly good car, maybe a couple of years old, for half the price of a new one. I tend to keep them until they become unreliable, but that hasn’t happened yet with my present one even though its 15 years old and has clocked up nearly 200,000 km, and yes the petrol gauge still works and I look at it regularly
Of course we seem to have it instilled in us that somehow we are, or should be, defined as people, by the sort of cars we drive. If that’s so I’m still a healthy 15 year old! But generally speaking I’d say that most people are brainwashed into an unthinking consumerism which isn’t healthy for either their bank balances or the environment.