THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS
At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.
This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
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On the Medieval Climate Anomaly…………(Medieval Warm Period)
Laguna Aculeo, Central Chile
http://co2science.org/data/mwp/studies/l1_lagunaaculeo.php
Max & TonyB
75,000 years ago the human race was nearly wiped out by the eruption from Toba in Indonesia that ejected 2,800 Km3 of solid material into the atmosphere. This was followed up by Taupo in New Zealand 26,500 years ago with another 1,200 Km3 Previous to these eruptions some 330,000 years ago Whakamaru near Taupo had chucked out 2000 Km3 Yellowstone the favorite of the movie makes was way back 640,000 years ago and chucked out a mere 1000 Km3 . By way of comparison Mt St Helens, El Chichon and Pinatubo only put out 10 Km3 of solid material plus 20 million tons of SO2 and unknown huge quantities of CO2.
The last big eruption in Taupo was 1800 years ago and the eruption culminated with a large and very energetic pyroclastic flow that devastated an area of about 20,000 Km3 and filled all the major river valleys of the central North Island with pumice and ash. These pumice deposits can still be seen today and many of the major rivers in the North Island carry large amounts of this pumice when in flood. Rounded pumice found on the beaches of the North Island have come from this eruption. I can personally vouch for this from numerous school trips.
The last 26,000 years have seen about 28 major eruptions from Taupo, separated in time by between 50 and 5000 years. There is no simple pattern to these eruptions that would suggest when or where the next event might occur.
I post this information not to scare anyone but as a Kiwi it would be nice if the next big one is somewhere else. No seriously because I find the dismissal of volcanic activity and its influence on past and present climate as bizarre. These things are huge and are going off all the time in the seas. Just imagine the devastation if we get another on land anytime soon. All bets would be completely off for carbon trading if that were to occur.
Peter Geany,
Considering………The devastation wrought upon the Earth due to natural processes and extraterrestrial bodies (meteors/asteroids)………yet, the planet has survived.
I find it quite conceited that Warmists would actually believe that mankind could have any substantial impact on such an imposing system.
The Yellowstone caldera is immense.
Comparatively, the caldera of Santorini is quite small……beautiful island.
From the center of the caldera approaching the main island, bands of material can be seen placed there over hundreds of thousands of years of continuous eruptions. The Minoan eruption occurred in 3,500 BC.
The energy (and CO2) released during such an event is astounding.
Minoan eruption
The physical eruption
The devastating volcanic eruption of Thera has become the most famous single event in the Aegean before the fall of Troy. This may have been one of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth in the last few thousand years with an estimated 7 on the VEI (volcanic explosivity index).
The violent eruption was centered on a small island just north of the existing island of Nea Kameni in the centre of the caldera; the caldera itself was formed several hundred thousand years ago by the collapse of the centre of a circular island, caused by the emptying of the magma chamber during an eruption. It has been filled several times by ignimbrite since then, and the process repeated itself, most recently 21,000 years ago. The northern part of the caldera was refilled by the volcano, then collapsing once more during the Minoan eruption. Before the Minoan eruption, the caldera formed a nearly continuous ring with the only entrance between the tiny island of Aspronisi and Thera; the eruption destroyed the sections of the ring between Aspronisi and Therasia, and between Therasia and Thera, creating two new channels.
On Santorini, a deposit of white tephra thrown from the eruption is to be found, lying up to 60 metres thick overlying the soil marking the ground level before the eruption, and forming a layer divided into three fairly distinct bands indicating different phases of the eruption. New archaeological discoveries by a team of international scientists, in 2006, have revealed that the Santorini event was much more massive than previously thought; it expelled 61 km³ of magma and rock into Earth’s atmosphere, compared to previous estimates of only 39 cubic kilometres in 1991,[8][9] producing an estimated 100 cubic kilometres of tephra.
Only the Mount Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815, the 181 AD eruption of Lake Taupo, and possibly Baekdu Mountain’s 969 AD eruption released more material into the atmosphere during the past 5,000 years.
My recollection of Plimer’s talk last week was that, having pointed out that 85% of volcanos were beneath the ocean (many of them “super” volcanos), he said that their main atmospheric effect was to release aerosols which in turn induced cooling. It was part of his general point that geological history showed that solar, cosmic, volcanic, oceanic etc. effects and events such as continental drift were the real drivers of climate change – there was, he said, no historical evidence that it was driven by CO2.
My latest article on using historic instrumental records (rather than tree rings or chewing gum wrappers or models) is up at WUWT
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/14/little-ice-age-thermometers-%e2%80%93-history-and-reliability/
tonyb
Amusing story here in today’s Observer (= Sunday’s Guardian ):
Antarctica: Penguin cruise tourists trapped in sea ice. Hmm – but no mention of climate change.
Robin 8230
Robin that is quite correct. I should have added this point in my first post. I think what Plimer is alluding to and it comes over in the book is the point about where the current increase in CO2 is coming from, and attributing it to man is way off the mark in his opinion because of these volcanoes. So he has two points in one with his comments of Volcanoes
Brute 8229
The 181 AD eruption of Lake Taupo was big by modern standards and affected the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere. It dwarfed Krakatoa yet by the standards of what has gone in the past was relatively small. People need to understand these things before they think that we can devastate our planet with the relatively slow burning of fossil fuel.
Peter Geany,
Yep, an Independence Day firecracker in comparison.
I didn’t pick up that you were in New Zealand…… Another exotic place I’d like to visit someday.
Generally, I think the enormity of the planet, the magnitude of the volcanic eruptions, the massive amounts of energy in weather systems, the vast depth and expanse of the oceans…..all of this is (generally) underestimated, underappreciated or misunderstood by the public.
Mankind is but a pimple on a flea……yet, the Warmists politicians would have us believe that we are having a significant impact on these enormous, unstoppable systems. As Robin has written; King Canute indeed!
No reference to organize religion here, but the eco-chondriacs seem to be afflicted with a God complex ……that they possess the knowledge and ability to somehow steer the stars or control the planetary weather systems……………The epitome of conceit and self importance.
Exposure to a typhoon or an earthquake may add some much needed humility and deference to their inflated egos.
In their defense, it is difficult to conceive of these things from the warmth of an apartment in Greenwich Village while curled up on the sofa reading the latest edition of the Daily Worker. Modern conveniences/technology has softened the impact of the power and scope of the natural world.
Quite possibly, a Trans Atlantic sea voyage in a 40 foot sailboat would provide an appreciation for the colossal energies involved.
I believe the members of the “expedition” to the Arctic last winter/spring had a good dose of reality. If not for the equipment brought to bear to save them (all of which produced large amounts of CO2 in production or operation), these intrepid planetary saviors, (publicity hounds) would be tits-up popsicles.
The hand wringing “penguin watchers” that Robin referenced are another example of mankind’s inability to cope when we are forced to deal with the natural world.
I wonder how much C02 was expelled attributed with the tourist joy ride and the possible rescue operations.
Oh no – the Sunday Times has a story today telling us that “Global warming threatens to rob Italy of pasta“. The story is based on Met Office research (to be unveiled a conference this week) that has combined “the power of various super-computers … to predict climate by different research groups across Europe [thus enabling] researchers to generate climate projections for particular countries and regions”.
These pre-Copenhagen scare stories are getting pasta joke.
Sorry.
Good thing Mrs. Brute stocked up on pasta at the supermarket yesterday. 10 for $10 (with a coupon).
This from the ultra Leftist, boot licking, sycophantic Obama supporting New York Times……make of it what you will.
BREAKING: World Leaders Agree to Delay Global Warming Deal as Public Skepticism Grows
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/world/asia/15prexy.html
I’ll have to add one of these SUV’s to my Christmas list……
Shock And Outrage Over Lavish SUV With Whale Penis Leather Seats
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/11/dartz/
Chapter 15 of the Working Group 2 report of IPCC AR4 deals with the polar regions. It draws heavily on ACIA (the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment) Report 2005 – describing it as “a benchmark for regional impact assessments”. Although the Report supports AGW, its Section 2.7 contains some interesting information about the conditions in the Arctic during the past 10,000+ years. For example:
1. Temperatures have been much higher than today’s.
2. Marine mammals have been present well north of their present range.
3. Russian forests advanced to or near the Arctic coastline 9 to 7 thousand years ago & retreated to their present position between 4 and 3 thousand years ago – at their maximum extension, temperatures may have been 2.7 to 7 deg C warmer than today.
4. The period 1550 to 1900 (the LIA), when glaciers advanced on all continents, may well have been the coldest of all.
5. Glacier retreat started around 1850 – and has continued since then, with various interruptions – the most rapid retreat was between the 1920s and 1940s.
Chapter 2 of the ACIA Report can be found here.
BTW, in my last post (8239) I should have tipped my hat to George Lloyd (another Aussie) for using data from a recent email of his to Benny Peiser.
Brute 8234
I am a New Zealander but currently work in London and live in the Cotswolds of Western England. I go to work each day propelled by 5000hp at 125mph so I guess my carbon footprint is outrageous. I have been fishing on Lake Taupo many times as a youngster, but it wasn’t until I was about 20 that it sunk in just what had made the lake. It is 50 miles long and 30 miles across and truly enormous when you are standing there and thinking what sort of power could force 2000 km3 of pulverised solid material into the air. And that is not counting the hundreds of year’s worth of human CO2 and SO2 that it also chucks out at the same time.
I was driving along the road South of Taupo one day with my Mother when Mt Ruapehu erupted. My Mother who was of a nervous disposition wanted to turn around and scarper. I wanted her to stop so that I could watch it. I was 14 at the time and my heart was pounding with fear and anticipation but I thought I may never get another chance to see such an event. It was eerie as we stood as there was no sound yet it was obvious that huge forces were at work. Eventually my mother’s nerves won the day and after about 10 minutes we were off on our way. This wasn’t the only eruption I witnessed. 3 years later I was flying from Rotorua to Christchurch and just after takeoff the Pilot reported that Ngauruhoe (Mt Doom from Lord of the rings) that a joins Mt Ruapehu had erupted and we had to divert around it. This gave everyone on the aircraft a wonderful view as we flew by.
I guess these events have made an impression on me and mean I have taken more notice of what Geologists have been saying about past climates.
Peter Geany,
Not many active volcanoes that I know of in the Cotswolds of Western England…..must be rather boring in comparison.
Yes, I suppose my point would be that Earth is a naturally dynamic, chaotic place. Geographic features, (such as the mid-Atlantic ridge) take millions of years to form and release unfathomable amounts of energy (as well as CO2).
I’d wonder if there are many geologists that are AGW adherents…I would think the number would be extremely small. Understanding the glacial pace of cyclical changes to the planet……really understanding the expanse of time……mankind’s appearance on Earth is a quite recent event in the annals of geologic time.
The planet has endured much more violent extremes than a .06 degree “average temperature change.
I write, sardonically, that this present “heat wave” will, undoubtedly, be the demise of the planet.
Brute
This confirms what the NYT expected (your #8237)
APEC leaders dilute carbon targets
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/15/2743079.htm
An earlier version of the leaders’ communiqué, as confirmed by Dow Jones Newswires read in part, “global emissions will need to be reduced to 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050”.
This was removed from the leaders’ statement.
Apparently this was a decision made by all the leaders (maybe with the exception of Rudd, who was also present).
Max
Max,
Good news, yes?
You wrote…..(a year ago?) that either the economic downturn or the cyclical cooling temperatures will kill this.
Which do you think it was?
Both?
Leo,
I’m always suspicious of those come out with statements such as your “this doesn’t need serious study it needs common sense”. What is common sense anyway? If that’s enough, why bother studying anything at all? Why bother reading books?
If you really are a “political scientist who knows what he is talking about” you might like to explain your “As for Marx’s opinion, well, that doesn’t account for the left really because if the left had listened to Marx the Bolsheviks would never have seized power and tried to force a revolution. Left idea, not a Marx one.” I don’t agree but I think I know what you are getting at, but I’m sure that Brute must be scratching his head after reading that!
Green politics can be of the political right too. For example, the British aristocracy have a long history of protecting their own environment by forcibly shipping off their surplus subjects to their overseas colonies. Read about the clearances of the Scottish highlands. Even now their response to environmental problems is often to call for drastic population controls which by implication blames the poor for the problems caused by over-consumption by the wealthy.
Hi Brute
8244
I think it is both the current decade’s cooling and the recession that have killed the craze to “do something” to stop global warming.
The APEC nations (who produce 60% of global CO2) have decided that this is not a priority.
The USA (who produce around 20+%) are also very cool on doing anything (despite the current administration, which appears to be out of touch with its voters and still wants to “do something” to save the planet, i.e. install “cap ‘n tax”).
It looks like only western Europe (and the many impoverished underdeveloped nations, who hope to collect a “guilt tax” from the developed world) are still pushing the idea of mandating a cutback in CO2 emissions.
As Christopher Monckton pointed out on US television, there is nothing that can be done to stop global warming by cutting CO2 emissions. If we believe the “climate sensitivity” as claimed by IPCC, then shutting down the entire economy of the world would only result in a reduction of 1 degree C by 2100.
I really believe that this is a “dying duck”.
What do you think from your vantage point?
Max
Peter M (and Leo)
Pardon me for cutting into your exchange.
You state that even the political right can be for green movements.
This is true.
It is also true that the political left can be totally oblivious to environmental concerns. All one has to do to confirm this is look at the horrible environmental record of the old “east Bloc” nations. (Fortunately, much of this is being “cleaned up” now that these countries have converted to a more capitalistic free market economy.)
Environmental awareness has nothing to do with “left-right” politics.
It just happens that many “greens” of today are really “reds” in disguise, using the mantle of environmental concern to hide their underlying dislike of the capitalistic system by turning environmentalism away from its true meaning to an anti-industrial witch-hunt on CO2 emissions (and hence industrial productivity).
[Don’t know how Leo, a political scientist, thinks about this,but those are my thoughts.]
Max
PeterM Leo and Max
When talking of Higland clearances don’t forget the dramatic impact made by cimate change when Farming/forestry conditions in the Scottish Highlands notably deteriorated on several well defined occasions.
http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3721/J080716?journalCode=noat
http://www.mywire.com/a/Oxford-Companion-Scottish-History/climate/9567668/
The evidence of these flights from the heights can be seen all over Scotland by the ruins of buildings which are often mistaken as the results of the much later Highland clearances.
Tonyb
TonyB
Yes. The impact of past climate changes can also be seen in Switzerland.
Around 900-1000AD there were many new settlements in the high alpine valleys of the Grisons area of Switzerland (plus parts of neighboring Austria and Italy), by a germanic people, called the Valser, who migrated across the alps from the Valais. These people were later driven from these high alpine regions by the advancing ice and snow at the end of the MWP and beginning of the LIA. The settlements are still abandoned.
Of course, the most striking evidence of this change in climate at the end of the MWP are the farm settlements buried in permafrost on Greenland. But that’s another story.
Max
I hadn’t seen this before. As you see, it’s a BBC webpage (now 2 years old) that presents 10 statements sceptical of AGW (from Fred Singer) each of which is then refuted (rubbished) by Gavin Schmidt. Hardly “balanced’ – as the BBC claims re its treatment of AGW.
I’d be interested to hear contributors comments on Schmidt’s arguments.