THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS
At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.
This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
Welcome to Harmless Sky, and happy blogging.
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10,000 Responses to “Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs.”
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Max,
Yes I agree. If you can’t produce any proper references then we should give it a rest for a while. That NOAA graph looked very much like another hockey stick to me. But if you say I’m mistaken…….
So I can now get back to having a bit of a gloat, can I? I had always thought it was a bit odd that the US Republicans had chosen the colour red. But, maybe, after all these bank nationalisations there might be something in it after all! Do you think that the delegates to the next Republican convention will have to learn the words of, and sing, the “Red Flag” anthem. I can’t wait!
JZ,
Yes you are obviously hopping mad with these Democrats. Goodness knows what you’d be saying if Al Gore had been president for these last eight years or if they’d had a majority in the Congress before 2006. I bet they are glad they didn’t now.
It’s bad enough that they have passed laws requiring that ethnic minorities should have equal treatment, but even worse, is that they’ve given the banks the impression that anyone and everyone who wanted a mortgage should have one. Was it just incompetence or malice that their Community Reinvestment Act legislation did not include a clause to explain that cats , dogs, dead people and foreign nationals, living overseas, weren’t covered by the legislation?
Clearly the banks must have thought that it did, and they were forced kicking and screaming to hand out mortgages to all and sundry against their better judgement!
Pete,
“Ethnic minorities” have had a better shot at succeeding in the United States than they have in their countries of origin. Take a look, (for instance) at the average yearly wage/living conditions of a black person living in the United States vs. a black person living in sub-Saharan Africa.
I happen to be an “ethnic minority”. My parents are “ethnic minorities” as were their parents. Nobody gave us anything. We don’t consider ourselves hyphenated Americans…… simply Americans. We didn’t catch any breaks because our names ended with vowels. Jews, Poles, Slavs, Italians, Germans, Swedes, Africans, Arabs, Chinese, Japanese all seem to have “made it” here.
Ever seen an INNA sign? This acronym was posted along with employment advertisements in many American (and British) newspapers……so don’t give me that BS.
You are writing that certain “ethnic minorities” can’t succeed without handouts and set-asides…..that certain ethnic groups aren’t capable of making their own way without “help”…..Frankly, that’s insulting to every person reading your post. What are you, a racist?
US society assures equal opportunity, not necessarily equal results.
Brute,
When you write “……ethnic minorities can’t succeed without handouts and set-asides” you are clearly mistaking the idea of positive discrimination with the concept of equality of opportunity for all.
You might be interested in this link which suggests that the current economic crisis is more comparable to the so-called “Panic of 1873” than the Wall St crash of 1929.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=dji&t=LIST&m=23775975&l=0&pd=1&r=0
It seems that the Jews took the brunt of people’s anger then. They would have been considered to be the ‘illegal aliens’ of the time.
Peter
Your continued blind spot of the two Wegman reports is surprising as they have both been referenced here. Please read the source material rather than rely on reports from third parties.
Your post 2020.
Steve McIntyre could bore for Canada on the subject of Ncdc/Noaa graphs-some 270 studies can be enjoyed from here complete with threads. A new day a new ncdc graph to pore over…
http://www.google.com/custom?domains=www.climateaudit.org&q=ncdc+noaa+graphs&sitesearch=www.climateaudit.org&sa=Google+Search&client=pub-3495138952800993&forid=1&channel=7265431255&ie=ISO-8859-1&oe=ISO-8859-1&safe=active&cof=GALT%3A%23008000%3BGL%3A1%3BDIV%3A%23336699%3BVLC%3A663399%3BAH%3Acenter%3BBGC%3AFFFFFF%3BLBGC%3A336699%3BALC%3A0000FF%3BLC%3A0000FF%3BT%3A000000%3BGFNT%3A0000FF%3BGIMP%3A0000FF%3BFORID%3A1&hl=en
This one is the response to the darrigo version you cited
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2897
This to other current Spaghetti graph reconstructions. Thread ‘Gavins Boast’
http://www.climateaudit.org/
I don’t think you want to understand how and why these hockey sticks keep appearing-its got nothing to do with dramatic upturns in the 20th Century and everything to do with the nature of the data and the way it is processed. You have been referenced before as to how these are constructed but here it is again. (The process was agreed by Wenger who really should have been concentrating on Arsenal team selection)
http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/ohio.pdf
Incidentally Darrigo (and Briffa) were criticised in the book you cited for lack of ‘consistency’ and ‘observed discrepancy’ which produced a ‘lack of confidence’
You have agreed to call a halt with Max regarding the MWP so I won’t send you my links or my comments on the 2000 year reconstruction book which I read at the time of publication two years ago but you obviously haven’t, or you wouldn’t have cited it. At $40 it was a rip off. I gave it away to the local Oxfam shop a couple of months ago. A big mistake as someone is now popping up in our local newspaper quoting out of context extracts from it. I should have sold it to you.
You are on much surer ground with your political comments. Your link to the 1873 panic was fascinating. I suppose it has dropped out of ‘living memory’ so isn’t cited as often. As my research time is spent on climate and trying to avoid Steve McIntyre’s proven (but tedious) ability to break hockey sticks, I don’t get much time to research these financial subjects. This is the view by one person. Have you got any other references or books on the subject? Christmas is coming. Although on second thoughts perhaps something on the great panic of 1873 isn’t ideal Christmas reading
TonyB
I suggest you all take a short break from analysing the world’s financial crisis and try this global warming quiz by Dr Richard Keen (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies, University of Colorado). As you Americans might say – enjoy.
Hi Peter,
You wrote in 2026 (to the reports demonstrating a global MWP, which I cited): “Yes I agree. If you can’t produce any proper references then we should give it a rest for a while.”
Duh!
Check out the 20 “proper references” from all over the world, which I gave you (2017). It’s really not that hard to do, Peter.
Regards,
Max
Hi Robin,
Thanks for entertaining “global warming quiz”.
Guess I’m, pretty well informed (except on US history). I missed the one on Jefferson, but got all the others right.
Note: I only picked one answer per question and on a couple of questions more than one answer was listed as correct.
Wonder how well Peter will do on this one?
Regards,
Manacker #2033
I scored 120% in the quiz but I’m not going to release the material for you to check
TonyB
All in a Good Cause
http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2007-03-04-1.html
Hi Peter,
To the current global bank/credit crisis you wrote: “So I can now get back to having a bit of a gloat, can I?”
If it makes you happy to “gloat” about millions of hard-working people worldwide whose life savings have been slashed, then please enjoy your moment.
Tell me, were you also gloating in December 2004, when the tsunami in the Indian Ocean wiped out over 200,000 people?
Regards,
Max
Hi Peter,
You complained about lack of links to MWP papers.
Here are some links to the studies from all over the world confirming a global MWP. Read them and enjoy.
BTW, the Soon and Baliunas paper gives a very good summary dated 2003. It might be the best paper to start with. Most of the other references were published after Soon and Baliunas.
Remove the {parentheses} from the links.
W. Soon + S. Baliunas, Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years 2003. Climate Research Vo. 23, 89-110
{http}://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~wsoon/1000yrclimatehistory-d/Jan30-ClimateResearchpaper.pdf
Lloyd D. Keigwin The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea Science 29 November 1996: Vol. 274. no. 5292, pp. 1503 – 1508
{http}://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/274/5292/1503
Loehle, C. 2007. A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. Energy & Environment 18(7-8): 1049-1058
Loehle, C., and J.H. McCulloch. 2008. Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. Energy & Environment 19(1)
{http}://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3025
Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R. and Molnar, Z. 2004. Classification and analysis of past climate information based on historical documentary sources for the Carpathian Basin. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1759-1776.
{http}://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/109792797/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
Antony Blundell and Keith Barber 2005. A 2800-year palaeoclimatic record from Tore Hill Moss, Strathspey, Scotland: the need for a multi-proxy approach to peat-based climate reconstructions Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, (10-11), 1261-1277.
{http}://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBC-4DVBFVF-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=a70dac63932ef60a848dfa48d5b5b1bb
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/17403/
Chuine, I., Yiou, P., Viovy, N., Seguin, B., Daux, V., Le Roy Ladurir, E. 2004. Grape ripening as a past climate indicator, Nature Publishing Group, p.289
{http}://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/fe/pdf/2004_Nature_432_289_290.pdf
Jan Esper, F. Schweingruber, M. Winiger. 2002. 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings, The Holocene, Vol. 12, No. 3, 267-277 {http}://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/12/3/267
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Mudelsee, M., Neff, U., Kramers, J., Mangini, A. and Matter, A. 2004. Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from southern Oman. Science 300: 1737-1739. Quaternary Science Reviews
Volume 23, Issues 7-8, April 2004, Pages 935-945
{http}://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBC-4BS0CNR-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=b5f82a84a7957dcbbedd429e71ea5d3d
Karin Holmgren, Julia A. Lee-Thorp, Gordon R. J. Cooper, Katarina Lundblad, Timothy C. Partridge, Louis Scott, Riashna Sithaldeen, A. Siep Talma and Peter D. Tyson. 2003. Persistent millennial-scale climatic variability over the past 25,000 years in Southern Africa. Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 22, Issues 21-22, November-December 2003, Pages 2311-2326
{http}://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBC-497YTHD-1&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=eeedcef05670c0bf6f280b68fcf03c06
F.S. Hu, E. Ito, T.A. Brown, B.B. Curry, D.R. Engstrom. 2001 Pronounced climatic variations in Alaska during the last two millennia, The National Academy of Sciences
{http}://www.pnas.org/content/98/19/10552.abstract
B. Yang, A. Bräuning, K.R. Johnson, S. Yafeng 2002 General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 9,
{http}://environment.lzu.edu.cn/download/GRL-China2kyYangB.pdf
Regards,
Max
This from Lomborg in the left wing Uk Guardian newspaper
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/14/climatechange-scienceofclimatechange
If Peter had followed the numerous factual references he has already been repeatedly given- but studiously ignored- he would already know about the information given here, and perhaps be realising that the facts are so different to the spin that even the left are starting to notice.
Max
I thought we’d called a truce on MWP references? Can I give Peter my ones now or is that breaking the truce? I particularly enjoy the studies that say ‘no tree rings.’
TonyB
Re #2016, it would seem that global warming politics is already becoming a whole lot less ‘risk free’: here.
Not only that, but it would also seem from this report that we are to make massive investments in our competitor’s infrastructure during a recession. Did I suggest that they might be better placed when it comes to recovery?
Peter,
I’m not sure why I am responding to your flip and arrogant, elitist post (2027) above, but for the sake of others here and ‘the record’, I will.
The CRA forced no bank to loan money to anyone, but many ‘community organizing’ groups put heavy pressure on these banks to loan money to people who were financially unfit to take on such an obligation. The threat was publicity that a bank or lending institution was ‘racist’, a label no company wants or can realistically resist. It was essentially a ‘shake-down’ operation by organizations such as ACORN, Rainbow-PUSH, etc.
However, greed took over when Fannie and Freddie and the investment banks found ways to securitize these questionable mortgages and sell them off. The whole system is guilty; I don’t blame the those who received the loans except to say that they should have known better. I’m not “hopping mad” at just Dem’s, but the Dems, the Reps, the whole of Congress and the well-intentioned efforts of white, liberal guilt.
Lastly, the CRA didn’t make things equal, it gave preferential treatment to people with low income and shady credit histories.
Hi TonyB,
Yes, Peter did agree to break off the discussion on Mann vs. MWP, but with a caveat that this was being done because I had not provided him any links to the various studies confirming a global MWP. So, in order to clear up this point, I sent him specific references.
I’d say go ahead and send him your “no tree ring” studies, as well. He needs clarification, since he apparently still “believes” in the long-deceased Mann hockey-stick and its many “spaghetti Doppelgängers”.
Regards,
Max
Hi TonyN,
It appears that the EU political leaders are still hoping to get “mitigation” measures approved and implemented worldwide (your 2039).
This is obviously a “pipe dream” in today’s time = global financial crisis plus the most recent 10 years of global cooling (i.e. AGW has died a natural death).
The most cynical proposal is “that governments should be able to achieve more than half of their target carbon cuts by paying developing countries to invest in clean energy projects on their behalf”.
Think about this a bit. The industrialized EU countries continue to expand their economies and crank out more and more CO2. Then, as an indulgence, they pay the impoverished “developing countries” a pittance with the precondition that they have to restrict their economic development and prosperity by limiting themselves to non-competitive “clean energy projects”.
This is economic neo-colonization as only the wily European nations could propose. For shame!
Regards,
Max
Max
I envy the detached perspective on the EU that you must have from a Swiss peak, but although you are probably right and neo-colonialism is the name of the game, it is a policy that could so easily backfire. And if it does, then we may end up nourishing predictors that see our markets as their rightful prey while loading our overheads so that we become even less competative. Morally, this is a very difficult point, but altruism isn’t a term that cops up all that often in economics.
Sadly, I suspect that your reference to indulgences would be lost on most people who have gone through the education system recently, in this country at least. But it really does put the situation in a very apt historical context and there is much that we could learn from this.
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/555283.html
I guess global warming isn’t exactly “global”. It seems to prefer not to adhere to the alarmist rhetoric in this case or in the case of the Antarctic. CO2 continues to rise and these glaciers gain mass…….the Sun is weak, (which I’m certain has nothing to do with any of this).
Oct 15, 2008
More Skeptics Speaking Out Almost Daily
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/More_Skeptics_Speaking_Out_Almost_Daily.pdf
Arctic sea ice now 28.7% higher than this date last year – still rallying
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/15/arctic-sea-ice-now-287-higher-than-this-date-last-year-still-climbing/
Wow……the Socialist politicians better get moving a little quicker on their legilation…their “cause” is freezing over and disappearing quickly.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20081014/NEWS/810140335/-1/frontpage?Title=Frost__one_more_thing__for_grape_growers
Max,
“If it makes you happy to “gloat” about millions of hard-working people worldwide whose life savings have been slashed, then please enjoy your moment.”
What caused me to have a bit of a gloat was the decisions of both the US and UK governments to nationalise their banks, when, for years, we’ve been told how old fashioned the idea of nationalisation had become.
If its any consolation to you, my pension is just as shot pieces as anyone else’s, and my house is probably worth a fair bit less than it was a year ago.
But, the capital gains were achieved effortlessly, on my part, by the markets going up and when the markets go down I can accept capital losses painlessly too. I’m sleeping just as well as ever! When you see reports of falling markets and of “billions of dollars ” wiped off share values, do you ever wonder where all the dollars have gone? Or where they came from in the first place when the markets rose?
To compare the current crisis with the deaths from the Tsunami is a little OTT, if you don’t mind me saying so. And in saying that, I do appreciate that many people will lose their jobs and retirement pensions etc in the next few years. That’s why some of us were never too keen on the idea of ‘casino capitalism’ in the first place.
JZ ,
My post 2027 was written slightly tongue-in-cheek, which is sometimes a good way to get a point across. I can understand that you may have said you liked it or disliked it, agreed or disagreed, but to say that you thought it was elitist??
What’s that supposed to mean? I don’t think a sense of humour should be the prerogative of the ruling classes of this world.
Hi Peter,
“That’s why some of us were never too keen on the idea of ‘casino capitalism’ in the first place.”
Don’t know exactly what you mean by “casino capitalism”, but if you are referring to the greed, excesses, poor oversight, etc. that led to the current financial crunch, I’m sure you will have everyone on this site agreeing with you.
If you are referring to a more fundamental issue of replacing free-market capitalism with socialism, you might have a significant number of posters who would disagree with you.
As Churchill put it so succinctly, “The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of its blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of its miseries.”
Despite all the current problems (including the imherently socialistic approach of the various government-sponsored bailout packages), Churchill’s fundamental statement still sums up the basic difference between the two systems.
Regards,
Max
TonyN: perhaps your comment at 2039 that “global warming politics is already becoming a whole lot less ‘risk free’” is a shade premature. This reports European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso as saying “we are not going to let up on the battle against climate change.” It’s still the orthodox position (especially here in the UK) and will I fear remain so for some time.