Mar 172008

THIS PAGE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED AS THE NEW STATESMAN BLOG IS NOW CLOSED FOR COMMENTS

At 10am this morning, the New Statesman finally closed the Mark Lynas thread on their website after 1715 comments had been added over a period of five months. I don’t know whether this constitutes any kind of a record, but gratitude is certainly due to the editor of of the New Statesman for hosting the discussion so patiently and also for publishing articles from Dr David Whitehouse and Mark Lynas that have created so much interest.

This page is now live, and anyone who would like to continue the discussion here is welcome to do so. I have copied the most recent contributions at the New Statesman as the first comment for the sake of convenience. If you want to refer back to either of the original threads, then you can find them here:

Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with all 1289 comments.

Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.

Welcome to Harmless Sky, and happy blogging.

(Click the ‘comments’ link below if the input box does not appear)

 

10,000 Responses to “Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs.”

  1. Max,

    I guess that you are trying to provoke me into a defence of Cuba. I have experienced a little of the sort of propaganda that you guys are subject to in the States, so I know it might be a little difficult for you, but lets take a look at the raw data and form our own opinion. Max would be proud of me saying that! What about life expectancy? And before you start to grumble about Wiki let me just say that some of these figures are supplied by the CIA so they must be correct :-)

    {http)://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    For Cuba it 77 years. For Haiti it is 57 years. So that must be a good indication that the conditions are nowhere near as bad in Cuba. But don’t worry. You guys must have it so much better in the USA, you live a whole year longer on average.

    What about infant mortality rate?

    {http}://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate

    Well it looks like you guys have to pull your socks up a bit. There are 6.3 deaths per 1000 live births in the USA but only 5.1 in Cuba.

    Maybe they don’t score too well on the literacy rate?

    {http}://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    You are Cuba are neck and neck, but they edge it by 99.8% to 99%. But, again the figures go to show that there is just no comparison between Cuba and Haiti. The Haitians have only a 55% literacy rate.

    So, yes I would criticise Cuba for its lack of free trade unions and a lack of democracy. However, and as the figures show, it isn’t the basket case that many in the USA would have us all believe. Cubans may be poor but they aren’t starving, they generally don’t die from diseases which are easily curable, and they do receive a better education than in many other countries in the region.

  2. Two corrections.

    Firstly I should have addressed my remarks to Brute not Max.

    Secondly the first link should be:
    {http}://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

    Its is nearly midnight here. I should go to bed, otherwise I will end up like Max; sitting here in making posts in the early hours of the morning!

  3. There is a new post entitled ‘Can global warming survive a global recession?’ here. This is the first installment of what will probably be quite a long series of posts on this subject and any suggestions, preferably on that thread and not this one, will be very welcome. The times they are a-change’n, and I suspect that attitudes will change with them.

  4. TonyN,

    Well of course the effect of the recession will be to reduce the demand for oil, gas, coal etc and therefore reduce CO2 emissions.

    It may also have the effect of reducing the availability of funds for the development of low CO2 technology. On the other hand, it may be something on which governments would like to spend money if they follow Keynes’ advice and engage in countercyclical spending to boost the economy.

    Have I missed something? Can there be a direct link between AGW and the state of the economy rather than a link between AGW and GHG atmospheric concentrations? I don’t think so.

    I won’t be posting to it. I’ll leave it to become just another contrarians corner. Does the internet really need another one?

  5. Two items:

    Item 1) I can’t seem to find a good site for Hadley data in a format I can use. Ideally, that would be all the global anomaly data from 1850 in a format Microsoft Excel can read. On the Met Office site I could only find data for some program I don’t have. I would be greatly indebted to anyone who can either, a) direct me to such a site, or b) download the raw data in the available format, translate to Excel, then email to me.

    Item 2) The discussions of Obama, Cuba, etc. above, as you might expect, got me riled up, and it ties in again with my earlier discussions about Europe and how the USA is perceived over there, etc.

    Based on the shocking video released today wherein Obama discusses his lament that the US Supreme Court failed to properly address redistribution of wealth in the Civil Rights decisions of the 1960’s, I am not convinced that Obama is a die-hard socialist in the classic, collectivist, redistrubutist mold. During the 1960’s, and frankly, since the dawn of the USA, the idea of “equal opportunity” really took off. For most Americans, it is a central part of the greatness and hope of the USA. That by insuring equal opportunity, regardless of race, creed, color, religion, nationality, gender, or even disability, everyone has the same shot at The American Dream. Unfortunately, listening to Obama on the YouTube clip, it dawned on me that the Left believes that Equal Opportunity laws and regulations have failed, because they have not so far produced equal outcomes. There are still “poor” people in this country—though our definition of “poor” is vastly different than in most of the world—so Equal Opportunity is not working. The Left, as I have written before, is driven by a need to make everything and everyone equal, even by force if necessary. They will take from Citizen A and give to Citizen B if that’s what it takes to equalize incomes. Many leftists even believe, as incomprehensible as it may be to most moderates and conservatives, that there are poor people BECAUSE there are rich people.

    Obama said in the YouTube clip that the US Supreme Court essentially missed an oppportunity to correct this situation when he argued that:

    [The Warren Court] didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution — at least as it’s been interpreted, and Warren Court interpreted it in the same way, that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties: [It] says what the states can’t do to you, says what the federal government can’t do to you, but it doesn’t say what the federal government or the state government must do on your behalf.

    I have never been so frightened of a presidential candidate than I am of Obama. His tax and spending plans will drag the US and global economies further into the gutter, and prolong the recession that has likely already started. Even more disturbing, his views on the shortcomings of the US Constitution suggest to me that he seeks fundamental change here to try to reinvent the USA in the European model that Peter seems to favor so much.

    I hope the voting public in the USA understands how significantly radical Obama really is. I fear for the republic.

  6. Some corrections to my post (2280) above:

    1. The link is a “shocking audio”, not “video”.

    2. In paragraph 2 of Item 2, I should have written: “..I am convinced that Obama…” (remove “not”)

    I apologize for the errors.

  7. JZ,

    I think both youself and Brute have argued in favour of the concept of equal opportunity, regardless of race, creed …. etc etc.

    That all sounds very laudable , of course, but with your right wing views, just a little puzzling.

    Are you really saying that there should be a level playing field? That every child should have exactly the same educational entitlements? That it should be illegal for schools and universities to turn away students if their parents are unable to pay? That the only criterion for entry to prestigious colleges such as Harvard and Yale should be an ability to pass an entrance examination?

    And that neopotism should be outlawed? That all job selection should be on ability alone?

    Or, are you saying that there should not be equality of opportunity for all and that the present system should continue?

  8. Pete,

    So, are you writing that the most effective way to remedy the “inequities” listed above is for government to steal earnings from you and give them to me?

    That’s what Obama wants to do.

  9. JZ,

    “I can’t seem to find a good site for Hadley data in a format I can use…..”

    I had a go at this recently. There are a couple of links in this spreadsheet which give you the Hadley data in CSV form which is easy enough to import into Excel.

    http://www.rfshop.com.au/portals/22/supp/tmp.xls

    You should find my email address in there too. I’ll send you what else I’ve got if you’d like that too.

  10. Brute,

    If you are on similar earnings to “Joe the plumber”, and if I lived in the USA, then I’d say it would be the other way around. Obama would be taking from you and giving to me!

    But seriously, I wasn’t saying anything at all either way. I was just asking a few questions.

    It is all very well to advocate high minded principles such as ‘equality of opportunity’ but you do need to think through the implications of what that really means.

  11. Peter,

    I won’t be posting to it. I’ll leave it to become just another contrarians corner. Does the internet really need another one?

    Congratulations of on finding an even more ingenious way of avoiding discussion of ‘difficult’ issues by posting to the wrong thread.

    So far as the need for contrarian blogs are concerned, my BlogStats graph certainly suggests that there is room for plenty more, and I suspect that in a recession it is one chart that is going to show a continuing up-trend.

  12. JZ Smith #2280

    Whilst many politicians over here in the UK may keep their true beliefs hidden in order to appeal to the centre ground, I would say that Obama is well to the left of mainstream top politicians in this country. If the Americans want to vote for a leftist candidate that is up to them, but it is difficult to believe that they dont know the nature of the person they are being asked to vote for. Presumably they are therefore voting for him because they like his policies.

    Incidentally I have never been able to get to the bottom of whether Obama is actually a US citizen-which your consitution demands. Has there been any objective final report on this?
    Either his birth certificate has been seen or it hasn’t.

    TonyB

  13. Pete,

    Obama would be taking from you and giving to me!

    That’s the issue. It isn’t Obama’s job as President or the government’s place to take earnings from anyone to “give” to someone else. I don’t want your money, you earned it, and you should keep it. I’ll earn my own money…..take care of my own family. I don’t need or want you or Obama to “give” me anything…..especially with strings attached.

    Let’s wrap this up; I know that it’s a hot button topic and I probably instigated it, but it’s really off topic unless you’d like to discuss confiscatory taxes to offset “global warming”.

    It’s probably getting TonyN angry.

  14. (This is an attempt to get the thread back on topic.)

    Peter: your recent exchanges with Max (especially posts 2160, 2182 and 2187) make me unclear (again) about what you mean when you dub someone a “denier” or “contrarian”. To help me understand, I have simplified (and – I think – improved) the questionnaire I drafted in August – see below. I’d be grateful if you would provide your answers. Also it would be particularly helpful if you would indicate what you think would be the answers given by the “overwhelming consensus” to which you refer. Should I assume that anyone with a different view is a “denier” or “contrarian?

    Questionnaire re global warming – select one answer per question

    Q1 Do you think the world’s temperature has increased over the past one hundred years?

    a. Yes
    b. No [please exit the survey]
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .
    ?

    Q2 Which of the following is closest to your view of how mankind’s greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have affected any such global warming?

    a. They were the cause of all or most of it?
    b. They made a substantial contribution to it?
    c. They made a small contribution to it?
    d. They had little or nothing to do with it?
    e. I have no view on this
    .

    Q3 Do you think global warming is likely to continue over the next one hundred years?

    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .

    Q4 Which of the following is closest to your view of the likely effect on mankind of continued global warming?

    a. It will be seriously harmful
    b. It will be fairly or slightly harmful
    c. It will not be harmful – and may be slightly beneficial.
    d. It will be beneficial.
    e. I have no view on this
    .

    Q5 Do you agree that taking action to reduce global warming should be at or near the top of the priority lists of world governments?

    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .

    Q6 Do you agree that taking action to reduce global warming should be at or near the top of your personal priority list?

    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .

    Incidentally, my answers are Q1a / Q2c / Q3c / Q4c / Q5b / Q6b

  15. Re: #2289, Robin

    I think I am right in saying that there is an opinion poll plugin for WordPress. What about putting your questionaire up on a separate page so that it would collect real information from visitors? Even if people coming to this blog are not likely to be a random sample, the results could still be interesting.

    Typo in Q4 c fixed.

  16. Thanks, Tony – please go ahead. As you say, it would hardly be a useful sample … but it might be interesting.

  17. This paper by Alex Lockwood of the University of Sunderland is a must read. It sets out to explore “the ways in which new media [i.e. blogs like this] is used to derail action on climate change”. It is exceptionally interesting here however because, as an example of how “the scientific consensus“ is “undermined online” by spreading “skeptical discourse”, he cites the following:

    In December 2007, the New Statesman published an article by David Whitehouse claiming “global warming has, temporarily or permanently, ceased.” Three weeks later, New Statesman columnist and climate author Mark Lynas wrote: “Whitehouse got it wrong – completely wrong.” Web editor Ben Davies let the forum debate run five months, attracting 3,004 comments: this could not happen in a letters page. … The important thing here is that the comments were in support of the sceptic Whitehouse, by a ratio of about six?to?one.

    He concludes by arguing that

    climate disinformation online is a form of cultural and political malware every bit as threatening to our new media freedoms, used not to foster a forum for open politics but to create, in Nancy Fraser’s term, a “multiplicity of fragmented publics” that harms not only our democracy, but our planet (Fraser, 1993).

    So it seems that not only “our new media freedoms” but democracy and the planet itself should be protected by curtailing blogs that question the AGW hypothesis – scary stuff.

  18. It’s snowing outside – in southern England in October! It must be climate change.

  19. Brute,

    There was a news item a few days ago shown on the Australian ABC, about a mobile clinic, set up somewhere in the USA, I forget which State, to offer free dental and other basic health procedures to those without health insurance. The medics offering the treatment were overwhelmed by the demand. There were young people with teeth so neglected that the dentists had no option but to extract the lot.

    Even though I have been accused of elitism, I’m not from a wealthy background but I was fortunate. As a young person my teeth were fixed for free, doctors and hospitals were free, prescription drugs highly subsidised, school was free, university was not only free, the government actually gave me, not lent, enough money to get by. With the addition of what I could earn during the breaks I probably did more than just get by.I just took it all for granted at the time, but looking back it was a sign that I did grow up in a healthy society. It is a pity that this has been eroded away over the years and that there has been a strong political current in favour of moving towards the system that you have in the USA but I am happy to say that I’ve fought it every step of the way!

    The silver lining that I see in the general cloud of looming recession will be a re-recognition that the free market is a good up to a point but no further.

  20. Robin

    The fact that it snowed today in Southern England is very unusual, but as Peter would say its not a trend. The fact that we have recorded 6 frosts so far this October in our sea side town in Southern England is certainly very unusual (as per the linked record below) but perhaps again is just interesting rather than a trend
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/library/factsheets/factsheet14.pdf

    However the fact that we have now had ten years of cooling officially (albeit marginally) is however a defiinite trend (this a repost)

    http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2332/2656244893_e6c9d7fe01_b.jpg

    Of course I would make no claim as to whether it will continue.

    TonyB

  21. Yes, TonyB – I know it means nothing much. My comment was intended to be (very mildly) amusing.

  22. Hi Peter,

    Haiti vs. Cuba

    The biggest difference in the statistics is probably that the figures you cited from Haiti (as sad as they are) are statistically correct (or even exaggerated, in order to garner support for aid), while the statistics from Cuba, where (as in the old Soviet Union) statistics are part of the state propaganda machine, may be a bit suspect (to show that the “socialist system” is working well).

    What do you think, Peter?

    Regards,

    Max

  23. Re: 2292, Robin

    If you think that Alex’s paper is scary, then try his blog here:

    http://www.alexlockwood.net/2008/08/14/bbc-impartiality-and-climate-change/

    Its worth reading through all the comments to the hilarious conclusion. Dave Rado is the climate change ‘non-activist’ who read ‘hundreds of scientific papers and summaries’ in the literature and then coordinated the 176-page scientific complaint to Ofcom about TGGWS with the help of Houghton, Ward, Watson, Connolly and others. He later got very upset about something I wrote here:

    http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=105

    The heavy guns from ClimateAudit, who actually know something about the Hockey Stick controversy, may have appeared on the scene because I mentioned the extraordinary affair of the mutilated complement there. Unfortunately I didn’t keep a copy of Alex’s original post, but it really did say some very nice things about the Bishop’s effort to explain the Hockey Stick saga objectively and in easily accessible terms. The link was only restored when I suggested that it really should be.

    I’m sure that journalism students at Sunderland – where Alex teaches – get a very good grounding in fact checking and covering all angles of a story. Incidentally he never tires of quoting from a long audience that he was granted by St. Mark the Pie Thrower, and seems to worship the water he walks on.

  24. Hi Robin,

    Just took your test and I must admit I must be a “climate denier” (or even worse a “flat earther”).

    Questionnaire re global warming – select one answer per question
    Q1 Do you think the world’s temperature has increased over the past one hundred years?
    a. Yes
    b. No [please exit the survey]
    c. Not sure / don’t know

    a (that’s what the record shoes)

    Q2 Which of the following is closest to your view of how mankind’s greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have affected any such global warming?
    a. They were the cause of all or most of it
    b. They made a substantial contribution to it
    c. They made a small contribution to it
    d. They had little or nothing to do with it
    e. I have no view on this

    c. (at most around half, probably less)

    Q3 Do you think global warming is likely to continue over the next one hundred years?
    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know

    c. (nobody really knows, least of all the IPCC or the other “self anointed experts”)
    .
    Q4 Which of the following is closest to your view of the likely effect on mankind of continued global warming?
    a. It will be seriously harmful
    b. It will be fairly or slightly harmful
    c. It will not be harmful – and may be slightly beneficial.
    d. It will be beneficial.
    e. I have no view on this
    .
    c. (harmful = unlikely: beneficial = possible – our planet has always done better when it was slightly warmer than when it was colder)

    Q5 Do you agree that taking action to reduce global warming should be at or near the top of the priority lists of world governments?
    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .
    b. (absolutely not; there are many more important problems out there that should be addressed))

    Q6 Do you agree that taking action to reduce global warming should be at or near the top of your personal priority list?
    a. Yes
    b. No
    c. Not sure / don’t know
    .
    b. (absolutely not; it’s not even on my priority list, since it has stopped all by itself)

    My answers are Q1a / Q2c / Q3c / Q4c / Q5b / Q6b

    Looks like you and I are “d’accord”, Robin. Let’s see if Peter takes the test, and, if so, how he answers…

    Regards,

    Max

  25. Robin 2296

    So was my comment. Also my central heating has just gone on 2 weeks earlier than normal. Again not a trend but an expensive necessity-hopefully one off.

    TonyB

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