Myles Allen first hit the headlines when a research project that he was involved with issued a press release (26^th Jan 2005) predicting that temperatures could rise by 11° C even if the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere is limited to only double the level before the Industrial Revolution. Given that temperatures only 6°C higher than today are considered to be catastrophic, this warning received extensive and highly sensationalised coverage in the media. But all was not quite as it appeared to be.

There is a transcript of part of a BBC Radio4 programme made by Simon Cox and Richard Vadon some time later called Overselling Climate Change, see here. This gives a brief but fascinating account of the controversy that followed. It is essential reading for anyone who wishes to follow the rest of this post.

On 21st April 2006, soon after this programme was broadcast, even RealClimate.net, the most strident advocates for anthropogenic global warming on the net, put up a post entitled How not to write a press release criticising Myles Allen’s handling of the affair. This carried some authority, as the proprietors of this blog are all leading figures in climate research. Normally in this field, dog does not eat dog, but in this case the way in which climateprediction.net had publicised their research seemed to be so unacceptable that general condemnation was called for. Continue reading »