This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.

The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?

By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.

Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.

Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.

Useful links:

Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.

Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.

The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.

4,543 Responses to “Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs: Number 2”

Pages: « 178 79 80 81 82 [83] 84 85 86 87 8891 » Show All

  1. 4101
    tempterrain Says:

    http://channels.isp.netscape.com/whatsnew/package.jsp?name=fte/globalwarming/globalwarming&floc=wn-nx

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/

  2. 4102
    Brute Says:

    AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH: Chrysler recovered via sales of gas-guzzling trucks, SUVs…

    http://detnews.com/article/20110524/MIVIEW/105240374/Payne–SUVs-saved-Chrysler

    Chrysler and the White House will celebrate the Detroit icon’s $5.9 billion repayment of government loans Tuesday in a ceremony that will be hailed by both sides for the same reason: The government bailout had become a liability for both entities.

    In fact, government-free Chrysler is hardly off the debt hook, but is simply refinancing its debt with private rather than public debt-holders. For its part, the U.S. government will still have a 6.6 percent equity stake in Chrysler – but by removing itself as the company’s loan shark, the White House can boast of the unpopular bailout’s success in returning taxpayer loans 6 years ahead of schedule. That’s an important sound-bite in an election year.

    But there is one inconvenient truth you won’t hear at the Sterling Heights, Mich. ceremony: Chrysler wouldn’t be here had it not defied its green White House masters. Chrysler’s return to profitability is a direct result of the fabulous success of its SUVs.

    The White House hand-picked Fiat to shepherd Chrysler out of bankruptcy in June, 2009 because of Barack Obama’s obsession with remaking Detroit’s automakers in the image of their European peers. Convinced that Americans craved small cars to fight the warming scourge, the president demanded Fiat bring its best-selling 500 Eurobox to the States as part of the acquisition deal. Obama was convinced that Fiat could reform the immoral, gas-swigging, SUV-dependent Chrysler.

    The exact opposite occurred.

    Two years later, the little 500 is about to go on sale in dealer “boutiques” – but it is the resurgence of America’s appetite for trucks that has brought Chrysler back from the dead. Chrysler Group reported sales were up 17 percent to 1.1 million vehicles in 2010 on the strength of its wildly popular, redesigned Jeep Grand Cherokee and Dodge Durango SUVs. For CEO Marchionne, the SUVs success in the U.S. market has been a revelation and he is planning to expand the SUV lineup into Europe with Alfa Romeo and Maserati-badged trucks. Marchionne is no starry-eyed green – he has realized that trucks like the Cherokee typically rake in twice the per-vehicle profit of cars (thus the beleaguered company’s speedy repayment of U.S. loans).

    Chrysler’s truck sales – largely ignored by Obama’s green media parrots – has also been good to UAW workers as Chrysler’s Detroit assembly plant is now at full, three-shift capacity.

    But there is one more inconvenient truth: Chrysler has been here before.

    After it repaid its 1980s loans under the legendary hand of Lee Iacocca, Chrysler was unable to diversify into smaller vehicles.Today, as the truck boom fades before the specter of $4-a-gallon gas, Chrysler is still heavily dependent on truck sales.

    Chrysler is back. But is it just 1980s déjà vu all over again?

  3. 4103
    manacker Says:

    PeterM

    You posted a link to “scary predictions” on global warming that (supposedly) “did come true”.

    Let’s do a reality check on that article (Score: Correct:False:Tie)

    1. The Earth will warm as more carbon dioxide is put into the atmosphere.(Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist and one of the founders of the science of physical chemistry, in 1893)

    Duh! It has been warming (in fits and spurts) since the modern record started in 1850, with or without added CO2. There is no statistically robust correlation between the observed warming and CO2. Score: 0:1:0

    2. We will begin to see noticeable changes in the Earth’s climate by around 2000 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists)

    This is an unsubstantiated claim, which cannot even be measured. Score: 0:2:0

    3. The sea level will start rising

    .

    False. The sea level has been rising since the modern tide gauge records started in the mid 19th centuty, long before significant human CO2 emissions. Score: 0:3:0

    4. The Earth’s ice will start melting rapidly (James Hanson, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

    False. Most of the sea ice melts every summer and refreezes every winter. 2007 was a year of unusually high end-summer retreat, but sea ice extent has recovered partially since then The net end-summer sea ice extent receded just as “rapidly” in the 1920s and 1930s as today; Antarctic sea ice is growing instead of receding. Score: 0:4:0

    5. Hurricanes will increase in intensity.(Alfred Russel Wallace, British naturalist, explorer, geographer, anthropologist and biologist, in 1900)

    False. Studies have shown no increase in either intensity or frequency of hurricanes as compared to earlier periods. Score 0:5:0

    6. Species will begin going extinct as a result of climate change.

    False. Species have been “going extinct” at about the same rate, with or without “climate change”. Score 0:6:0

    7. Australia will start drying out.(Scientists from the Hadley Centre for Climate Change)

    That’s what everyone thought, until the recent floods (which are also being blamed on human-induced climate change, of course). But Australia has had prolonged periods of drought long before human CO2 emissions. Score: 0:7:0

    8. Tropical diseases will increase

    This canard has been shot down by Dr. Paul Reiter. It is an unsubstantiated claim. Malaria increased when DDT was banned but other tropical diseases have not increased. Score: 0:8:0

    9. Food crops will be adversely affected

    False. Crops are increasing. Some food shortages have resulted from foolish corn-to-ethanol projects.

    10. Carbon dioxide will begin to acidify the ocean.

    The ocean remains distinctly alkaline although measurements of ocean pH are sparse and not conclusive. Natural chemical and biological factors act as a buffer; it is likely, however, that there has been a miniscule decrease in ocean pH resulting from CO2 absorption. Let’s call this one a “correct”. Score: 1:8:0

    So Peter, you see that the doomsayer crystal ball was pretty lousy in making “scary predictions”. It turns out it was simply “scaremongering”.

    Max

  4. 4104
    tonyb Says:

    My article has just gone up on Climate etc on ‘The futility of carbon reduction.’

    http://judithcurry.com/2011/05/26/the-futility-of-carbon-reduction/#more-3330

    Comments welcome

    Tonyb

  5. 4105
    manacker Says:

    TonyB

    Excellent article (gave you my comments on Climate etc.).

    BTW, your article started an interesting exchange of views on that site.

    Max

  6. 4106
    peter geany Says:

    tonyb I will have a look at it over the weekend Climate etc is blocked at my work

  7. 4107
    tonyb Says:

    Max

    Thanks fir your exellent input. I look forward to seeing input from PeterM and comments from Peter Geany

    Tonyb

  8. 4108
    Brute Says:

    Nobel Laureate Denounces Freedom of Information on Behalf of Global Warming Hoax

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/25/freedom-information-laws-harass-scientists

  9. 4109
    manacker Says:

    Brute

    Paul Nurse’s bleating about the “poor harassed climate scientists” having to divulge their (taxpayer funded) research work to FoI requests by those who funded the work brings tears to my eyes.

    This guy should stay out of the politics of climate science. It only makes a brilliant medical scientist look like a silly fool.

    Max

  10. 4110
    Brute Says:

    Global Warming Causes Breathtaking Waterfalls In Yosemite

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/record-snow-makes-spectacular-yosemite-waterfalls/

  11. 4111
    tonyb Says:

    This is cross posted from the ‘No leaders thread’ to retain releance.

    —– —– ——

    PeterM

    Churchill??!!

    The question I ask is based on Physics not economics. You have already shown you have no expertise in the latter but claim to have some in the former. Here it is again; by all means post your answer on the other thread to retain relevance.

    Question: Temperatures are expected to rise by 3 degree Centigrade because of actions we have already taken. If the world collectively closed down their carbon economies what temperature reduction could be achieved?

    a) By 2100

    b) By 2200

    —– ——

    Peter, if you are unable to make the calculations yourself you must know the answer in order to be able to so stridently assert that the roof is falling and we must do something immediately.

    Could you therefore provide a link to 4 or 5 studies. Thank you

    tonyb

  12. 4112
    Brute Says:

    World Bank to suggest CO2 levy on jet, shipping fuel

    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE75407H20110605?sp=true

  13. 4113
    Brute Says:

    Activist calls for forcibly tattooing ‘climate change’ deniers…

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html

  14. 4114
    Brute Says:

    Here ya go Pete……a fine example of an outspoken advocate of Socialism (for everyone except himself)……..I wonder how much CO2 is generated by BONO’s concert tours?

    Just think how many polar bears could be saved with the tax money that he has avoided paying………how many poor irishmen could be fed and healed with the money he has “stolen” from the UK social services scam……….err, uhh……….”system”.

    ‘Saint Bono’ the anti-poverty campaigner facing huge Glastonbury protest – for avoiding tax

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394422/Saint-Bono-facing-huge-Glastonbury-protest–avoiding-tax.html

  15. 4115
    Brute Says:

    By the way, “Bono” is an alias………..his real name is Paul Hewson…………

  16. 4116
    geoffchambers Says:

    Brute #4113 That’s quite an article.
    First he suggests tattooing us on our arms, then says maybe that’s “a bit Nazi-creepy”, so he suggests lashing us to a pole and watching us slowly drown, then appears to change his mind again, saying: “OK, maybe the desire to see the painful, thrashing death of one’s opponents is not ideal. But, my God, these people are frustrating.”
    Then he criticises both left and right, and suggests “getting the politics out of the climate-change debate.”
    Richard Glover is an authentic fascist. Not the kind who gasses his opponents, of course. Just the kind who makes jokes about it, paving the way for those who turn his words into deeds. If only someone would say so, in an Australian newspaper. A good libel action could do wonders to clarify things.

  17. 4117
    peter geany Says:

    Brute #4113, geoff #4116

    Mere words sometimes fail me when you read what this nutter has written. Do you know he would be the first to be down protesting about free speech if we removed his rights to say what he thinks. Don’t these people ever see the irony in what they are saying.

    One thing is for sure, they must be getting desperate if the paper sees it necessary to print such rubbish.

    Did you all see that Australia had a large dip in output recently. They are blaming it on the floods and fires, but it will be interesting to see if they bounce back given that everywhere else is slipping further into the mire.

  18. 4118
    Brute Says:

    Millions of (UK) households face record high energy bills

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8562207/Millions-of-households-face-record-high-energy-bills.html

  19. 4119
    Brute Says:

    Australia poised to allow camel cull

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e633ac8-9126-11e0-9668-00144feab49a.html#axzz1OdxOD8JX

  20. 4120
    manacker Says:

    Brute

    The UK power bill hike sounds like the ENRON scam in California back in the 1990s (before ENRON imploded).

    I’m afraid I’ll have to ask TonyB: “where are the guys that used to run a world-wide empire?”

    Somewhere along the line, British politicians have gotten the idea that their job is to do “what is best for the whole planet” (based on the input from a bunch of fuzzy-brained professors and green activists) rather than “what is nest for the British citizen and taxpayer”.

    Is a voter revolt required to jolt these guys back into reality?

    Max

  21. 4121
    tempterrain Says:

    Max

    “Where are the guys that used to run a world-wide empire” ? I suppose the simple answer is that they are dead and long gone.
    Your implication is that Empires are desirable. Part of a Golden age, That it would be better if countries like India, Keyna, South Africa etc weren’t independent. Empires aren’t democratic. They can only be maintained through physical violence and of course it usually takes further viloence to drive out Imperialism.
    Ask Brute about the US War of Independence.

  22. 4122
    tempterrain Says:

    Max,

    A UK voter revolt?
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
    Maybe. But probably not one you’d approve of.

  23. 4123
    tonyb Says:

    Max 4120

    Actually I think that the British are just continuing their long standing mission to do what they think is best for the planet with their idea that our sacrifices will be for the common good. See ‘Tragedy of the commons’ quote by David Mackay which started off my original ‘futility of carbon reduction’ article

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

    The British Empire had a number of purposes (including self interest) but amongst them was the belief that it would spread civilisation, the rule of law and Christian values

    http://209.128.81.248/view/311d1-OWExO/Empire_and_Democracy_flash_ppt_presentation

    I wish we were more like the French and looked after our own intests more and minded our own business-yet another 20% increase in fuel prices announced today.

    Tony

  24. 4124
    Brute Says:

    Peter,

    Will China now be the focus of your ire? Will you travel to Beijing to stand with placards in Tiananmen Square protesting the “evil” “gluttonous” Chinese for killing Polar Bears and Delta Smelts?

    China overtakes USA as top energy consumer…

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-China-overtakes-US-as-apf-1370742434.html?x=0

  25. 4125
    Bob_FJ Says:

    Greetings,

    I see you are still at it, but in an exciting EUREKA moment, I thought I’d let you mostly rationalists know that I’ve semi-solved what seemed to be an insurmountable mystery that you might recall I thought was far more absorbing than debating stuff with Peter Martin. (he aka under a fantastically clever anagram as tempterrain).

    The problem was that if I heated a drink in a cup in my microwave, most of the time afterwards, the cup handle was facing away upon opening the door.

    WELL, I’ve come-up with a brilliant engineering solution, which may help to solve the underlying problem, given some more grace to work more on that. If I insert the cup holding the body with the handle away from me, when I open the door, the handle predominantly points towards me.

    Was denken sie?

  26. 4126
    peter geany Says:

    Lets hope that more heavyweights weight in as the Government will do themselves a lot of harm calling this fellow a denier, and not only that, they can not ignor what he is saying too easily without explaining themselves, which we all know they cannot easily do. Finally it is all coming home to roost and as I have posted on numerous occasions it will be the money in our pockets that will finally focus the minds of the general public.

    I am reminded of a question asked of Ian Plimer at the Spectator debate; when will the Climate change Con finish. His answer was “when the money runs out”

    And with a growing reputation for U Turns the Government is in a real spot of bother. This is good because it will make them dig their heals in, making the situation worse, and discrediting the lot of them forever.

  27. 4127
    TonyN Says:

    Peter G, 4126:

    The Financial Times is carrying a sympathetic take on this story too, and I think that is very encouraging considering how stridently people like their Fiona Harvey have promoted alarmism in the past.

  28. 4128
    tempterrain Says:

    PeterG,

    A heavyweight? Maybe he should walk to work more!

    So, the “Climate change Con” will end “when the money runs out”. I thought it was all a hoax an excuse to raise taxes etc. A money grabbing exercise by the arrogant elites who’ve decided they are better equipped to spend your money than you are yourself? So shouldn’t “when the money runs out” be when it will really start in earnest?

    Even by your own twisted logic it doesn’t make any sense. But, then, you are climate change deniers so I guess it doesn’t have to.

  29. 4129
    Alex Cull Says:

    Just to say UK Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman has been on the radio this morning, blaming climate change for “two severe winters” (approximate quote). Will see if I can come up with a link, a bit later.

  30. 4130
    peter geany Says:

    PeterM As usual you are 3 or 4 steps behind, and making even less sense than usual. The money is running out, and we are witnessing the death throws of the Euro in its current form, this will not be good for the UK. The US is looking as if it may double dip, which is not good for anyone.

    Without all the funny money that was sloshing around there is no room for lavish climate research or for all the expensive policy responses such as the renewable obligation in the UK. We are seeing solar providers looking seeking a judicial review of the payments to “solar farms” after they were cut recently, because suddenly without all the excessive subsidy these useless contraptions are not competitive any more.

    And our money is running out faster than anyone realises because our “official” rate of inflation bears no relationship the the real rate, because as the money dries up its those items that are going up fastest, food, clothing and energy that we have to buy, and all the items that are holding the figures down, we have stopped buying.

    Its not hard to figure any of this out, nor is it hard to figure out that much of the inflation is self inflicted by our obscene energy policies in response to the non problem of DAGW.

    The recent post by Richard Lindzen on WUWT demonstrates yet again the lengths that publications will go to to try and block what amounts to the only research into CO2 feedbacks. And guess what Peter the feedback looks to be negative or at worst nil. Are you going to accept this or are you just going to dismiss it as the work of a denier. I think we are going to have to find good name for you, some thing to do with Ostriches I think.

    And perhaps you missed the experiment in Copenhagen where a particle accelerator was used to create aerosols from high energy particles in an experiment to verify earlier work on cosmic rays. And this before we get the full results from CERN that looks to have verified this work as well. Its all not looking too good for you Peter. Time perhaps to pull your head out of the sand.

  31. 4131
    tempterrain Says:

    “we are witnessing the death throws of the Euro” Really? Want to bet 100 of them that they’ll be around this time next year?

  32. 4132
    peter geany Says:

    PeterM Look carefully at the words I used. You have left off the important qualifiers.

  33. 4133
    tempterrain Says:

    I’ll take that as a “no” then. Should be “throes” BTW

  34. 4134
    peter geany Says:

    PeterM Its been my experience that the most annoying and nauseating people in the world all…………………no I won’t go there. The Euro in its current form is in its death “throes” I don’t have to answer any more questions about it. That statement is clear enough.

    You can chose to believe all the pretend politicos from the EU and elsewhere if you chose, but it’s like filling a glass with a hole in the bottom. You may fill the glass by pouring in lots of water, but it will continue to leak out requiring constant filling. If you say enough then very quickly there is no water. To fix the hole you have to switch off the water first to let it dry out. But once you have even a small trickle will soon fill the glass.

    Change the water to money and try and understand the point. The sooner the politicians understand that they have to fix the hole, the less it will ultimately cost the Greeks.

    At some point the burden of printing money will fall on the head of the masses in Europe in a greater way than it is already. At that point they will revolt. There are rumblings all over Europe. Greece is about to default, albeit strenuous efforts are being made to make it look like something else. The word restructuring is being used a lot, and haircut is another, although I don’t see what help hairdressers can be.

  35. 4135
    Brute Says:

    Global Warming Panic explained

  36. 4136
    tempterrain Says:

    Peter Geany,

    I don’t believe a haircut in this sense has anything to do with hair or hairdressers. It is financial jargon and simply that some holders of bonds won’t get all their money back. It won’t be the first and it won’t be the last time if this happens.

    California probably has a worse financial deficit than Greece. It doesn’t mean that the US dollar is in its ‘death throes’ although its value may well change relative to other countries because of financial problem in California and other States. Its the same story in Europe. The creation of the Euro has effectively made it one large country. I’m not sure that everyone appreciated that at the time. Its not likely that California will leave the US, nor is it likely that Greece, Portugal or Spain will efectively leave the EU, which is what they would be doing if they re-introduced drachmas etc.

    So, lessons will be learned and the problems with Greece etc will be solved in exactly the same way as problems with any technically insolvent State or City will be dealt with in the US. Neither the US$ nor the Euro are in quite as bad a state as you might imagine.

  37. 4137
    peter geany Says:

    PeterM The UK is in the EU and not in the Euro, so Greece or any other country could follow suit.. The Euro has failed some countries as the only way it could be successfully is by full political union, which we don’t have. Every crisis in the EU and with the Euro has been used as an excess to force through extra powers for the commission without democratic legitimacy. This is why the edifice will tumble down.

    By the way Peter, I do know what a hair cut is, my current employer being a financial institution, I was drawing attention to the absurdity of the situation.

  38. 4138
    tempterrain Says:

    PeterG,

    Yes the UK is in the EU – but only sort of. It still has its own currency which makes a big difference. Pulling out of the EU would be relatively straightforward if the UK chose to do so.

    But say Greece wanted to just go back to having drachmas. How would that work? What about all the bank accounts that are held in Euros? All government debt – still in Euros. All mortgages and loans to banks – still in Euros. The problem is still there just as it was before. Add in an almost certain threat of a general strike by the Labor unions -they won’t like to have by pay Euro debts and Euro prices out their drachma incomes – and it’s relatively easy to see that no democratic Greek government is ever going to do it. It would need a swift military take over and coupled with the repression of the population. It is possible but not very likely IMO.

  39. 4139
    tonyb Says:

    PeterM

    A number of countries should never have joined the Euro as they broke many rules such as that of existing indebtedness. They were allowed to join as the EU wanted credibility by having the maximum number of countries participate. The EU ‘rulers’ will pay any price to keep it together as the political/credibility fall out would cause widespread damage in all sorts of EU institutions.

    The EU can only work with political AND Monetary AND Fiscal union. That is to say there has to be a common set of rules on such things as tax and budgets and policy. Contiuing as they are won’t solve the Euro crsis-which is very much bigger than you seem to realise.

    I can see a two tier Euro with one group clustered round Germany and the other clustered round a fluctuating exchange rate that may be based on the euro or may require reversion to national currencies although you are quite right to point out the potential consequences.

    Without a fluctuating exchange rate it is hard to see how countries such as Greece can get out of this. However having a fluctuating exchange rate-with all the other consequences you describe-is arguably as bad.

    Probable short term solution-keep applying the sticking plaster and hope the world economy improves. Medium term-our rulers will throw everything at keeping it all together.
    Longer term? The collapse of the Euro as we know it unless there is closer integration of fiscal policy to form a genuinely more cohesive single state.rather than a collection of disparate countries all at different stages of threir economic development.

    Incidentally, the UK pulling out of the EU is not relatively straightforward as there are numerous treaties ebedded in UK law.

    Tonyb.

  40. 4140
    Brute Says:

    The Keynesian model fails again…………

  41. 4141
    tempterrain Says:

    TonyB, I’m not sure that rules are any good is this case. Yes, I agree Greece very probably broke the rules more than most, but what does the EU do about it? Fine the Greeks? That just makes the problem worse.
    Let the Germans annexe a few of their favourite Greek islands? I can’t see it happening.

    What would happen if ,say, Yorkshire were to overspend and technically be declared bankrupt? Would the local politicians be held accountable? That might be possible in the UK but it is politically impossible for Greek politicians and civil servants to be tried in somewhere like the Hague for economic crimes. I agree it is a bit of a problem with no obvious solution other than to muddle through which I’m pretty sure is just what will happen. The Greeks, and others, will end up being bailed out despite a lot of huffing and puffing from everyone else.

    The Californians will recover from their problems without having a separate currency and so will the Greek, Portugese, and Irish. Lets see what happens in one, five, ten years time. I hope you remember this prediction then.

    Incidentally I remember using English pounds in Ireland in the mid 70′s and that was some 50 years after independence. Its a lot harder to separate currencies once they have been unified than achieve political independence.

  42. 4142
    tempterrain Says:

    Brute,

    WW2 was actually won with the benefit of Keynesian economics which, incidentally, doesn’t necessarily mean higher and higher levels of deficit spending.

    His pamphlet “How to Pay for the War” , published in 1940, argued that the war effort should be largely financed by higher taxation and especially by compulsory saving (essentially workers loaning money to the government), rather than deficit spending, in order to avoid inflation.

    Of course, all countries did run up large debts during the war and according to classical economic thinking the postwar generation should have had a hard time repaying those debts. Isn’t that an argument in the US now? However, I don’t think we’ve done too badly. Do you?

  43. 4143
    tonyb Says:

    PeterM

    The point I was making was that the Greeks-amongst others-broke the rules BEFORE they were admitted to the Euro as regards the level of their debt. If the EU was willing to break those rules from day one it should have given a steer to what was likely to happen when things got tough. Hopefully Yorkshire would be reined in by the auditors before it went bust but the the analogy is poor as Yorkshire is an integral part of the UK whilst the individual countries of the EU are never going to achieve the same status within the EU. History tells us that there are far more countries in the world than there were 50 years ago and the EU is trying to defy that movement in attempting to create one unified block. It can’t do that unless all aspects of the state are subsumed into the whole and the people of Europe seem to be saying they have had enough of this centralised control.

    I’m not so sure the Greeks will be bailed out. On the one hand you have the German govt who are the lynch pin of the EU for all sorts of reasons and the German people who are angry at the profligacy of their neighbours that they are supposed to bail out. Its all very messy and can’t continue in the same way as it has in the past although HOW it will be resolved is difficult to forecast as the political elite won’t want to admit to their mistakes.

    tonyb.

  44. 4144
    peter geany Says:

    PeterM Much of what you say is correct in a way and is what our masters in Brussels would like us to think. However at this point in time Greece is broke, as are Ireland, and Portugal. Spain has hidden debt and a collapse in its property market. It has invested heavily in green energy and is now backing out of paying. Italy has many debt issues that are hidden.

    Now the only way this lot can stay together is if Germany, France and the UK pay for them to do so, being the three economies that are big enough to pay. The coalition are facing opposition from the people here about this as are the Germans. As I have said and tonyb repeated above it just won’t work without full political union.

    And just for your information the cuts are yet to bite in Ireland, a country that has fought a long fight to be free of political control from a foreign power. The irony of their current situation is that Brussels now has total control of their economy and I wonder how long it is before they wake up to this fact.

    You see Peter the medicine currently being handed out on the insistence of Germany is that Greece, Portugal and Ireland all face their medicine alone and experience severe cuts whilst the richer core of Europe carries on as usual. The Euro was sold as all for one and one for all. This is not the reality and these counties face the next 2 generations in the doldrums.

    And no matter what they do, the situation will continue to get worse until it either collapses, or they cut Greece Portugal and Ireland free. And the reason this will happen is the bureaucrats in Brussels are trying to redefine economics by ignoring all the lessons of the past all the way back to the Romans.
    .

  45. 4145
    Brute Says:

    Pete,

    So your favored economic model is to stimulate the economy by building weapons, destroying half of the world in order to rebuild it? (Not to mention killing 70 million people).

    Seems somewhat wasteful don’t you think?

    Maybe you’d have roving gangs of government paid workers roaming the countryside vandalizing and destroying property and then hiring additional government paid workers to come along behind them to repair the damage that the first group caused?

    Makes perfect sense Pete………..

    In Nation, State, and Economy (1919), Mises said, “War prosperity is like the prosperity that an earthquake or a plague brings.” The analogy was apt in World War I, in World War II, and during the Cold War.

    http://www.fff.org/freedom/0395d.asp

  46. 4146
    Brute Says:

    I continuously laugh at these enviro nut jobs……..Now, come to find out, the coal fired cars (electric) emit MORE CO2 than their conventionally powered counterparts………..you can’t make this stuff up folks………

    Electric vehicles found to be not so green

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/electric-vehicles-found-to-be-not-so-green/story-fn59niix-1226073265676

    ELECTRIC cars could produce higher emissions over their lifetimes than petrol equivalents because of the energy used in making their batteries, a study has found.

    An electric-car owner would have to drive at least 130,000km before producing a net saving in CO2.

    Many electric cars will not travel that far in their lifetime because they usually have a range of less than 145km on a single charge and are unsuitable for long trips.

    Even those driven 160,000km would save only about a tonne of CO2 over their lifetimes.

    The study, the first analysis of the lifetime emissions of electric cars covering manufacturing, driving and disposal, undermines the case for tackling climate change by rapid introduction of the cars.

    The Committee on Climate Change, the British government watchdog, has called for the number of electric cars on the roads to increase from a few hundred to 1.7 million by 2020.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
    The British Department of Transport is spending £43 million ($66m) over the next year giving up to 8600 buyers of electric cars a grant of £5000 each towards the purchase price. Ministers are considering extending the scheme.

    The study was commissioned by the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, jointly funded by the British government and the car industry.

    It found a mid-size electric car would produce 23.1 tonnes of CO2 over its lifetime, compared with 24 tonnes for a similar petrol car.

    Emissions from making electric cars are at least 50 per cent higher because batteries are made from materials such as lithium, copper and refined silicon, which require more energy to be processed.

    Many electric cars are expected to need a replacement battery after a few years.

    Once the emissions from producing the second battery are added in, the total CO2 from producing an electric car rises to 12.6 tonnes, compared with 5.6 tonnes for a petrol car.

    Mitsubishi Australia, which has about 100 electric cars on lease in Australia to fleets and local governments, said the findings were “diametrically opposed” to their understanding of the situation.

    “Our information is that manufacturing lithium ion batteries accounts for a small fraction of the lifecycle environmental impact of an EV,” a spokeswoman for the company said.

    In addition, a vehicle was expected to need only one battery during its life.

    The Mitsubishi iMiev, a city runabout that has been available on lease for almost a year, will be available to the public for about $50,000 from August, the company said this week.

    The only other electric car available here is the Tesla sportscar, which costs more than $200,000, although Nissan plans to offer a hatchback called the Leaf next year that is expected to undercut the iMiev.

    Greg Archer, director of Low CVP, said the automotive industry should state the full lifecycle emissions of cars rather than just the tailpipe emissions to avoid misleading consumers.

    Drivers wanting to minimise emissions could be better off buying a small efficient petrol or diesel car.

  47. 4147
    peter geany Says:

    Oh dear Greece has been downgraded again, with the resultant knock on effect to the others. You can’t buck the market if you want to trade in the real world.

    Our PM is coming under intense pressure now, which will make him dig in further, which I think is the only way we will get rid of him. Mind you is that the sound of steel on blade I here coming from the 1922 committee? Just in case they are needed I’m told.

  48. 4148
    tempterrain Says:

    Brute,

    I notice your Dr Higgs suggests that: ” If workers want to work but cannot find an employer willing to hire them, it is because they are not willing to work at a wage rate that makes their employment worthwhile for the employer.”

    He’s advocating the classical economic solution for under employment which is to drive wages lower and lower. Marx actually thought the same, and he therefore argued that an organised working class wouldn’t just sit back to let this happen but instead they would overthrow the system and replace it with a new one under their control.

    Keynes, who was always keen to oppose Marxist ideas, would have realised that Marx was well on the way to being proved right if that kind of economic thinking had been allowed to continue unchallenged. So, I would say there is a strong argument for suggesting that Keynes wasn’t quite the villain you make him out to be even from your own POV. He may well have saved the system you claim to support.

  49. 4149
    manacker Says:

    TonyB

    After reading your 4139 plus the other posts related to the various EU crises, I can only thank the Swiss voters for having decided not to join this club several years ago – and having resisted more recent attempts (primarily trom the left-leaning parties) to reconsider joining..

    The economy here is not booming, but it is growing slowly and there is no real unemployment, the currency is strong (too strong), there is a continuous wave of immigrants from EU countries (both with high qualifications/competences and less qualified), housing values are booming (possibly too much). Polls in neighboring regions (part of EU nations around Switzerland) show that a majority of these people would like to join Switzerland rather than staying in their present nations, etc.

    The European Common Market was a good thing.

    The political union with open borders and free access was an idealized pipe dream of a few influential politicians.

    We see how the EU defense policy has de facto been abdicated to NATO (with France staying out, but Canada and the USA included).

    The Euro as a common currency (with no common financial or fiscal policy) has been a disaster.

    The governing officials and bureaucrats sitting in Brussels are not elected by the people and are not directly accountable to anyone.

    The EU is an organization, which is moving Europe away from a grass-roots democratic society with representative governments, to an oligarchy ruled by a few powerful elitists.

    But, as you have written, Tony, it is growing like a cancer and gradually becoming entrenched into the local legal structure, so that it will be very difficult for individual nations to break out and regain their independence.

    Max.

  50. 4150
    manacker Says:

    Brute

    Your info on electric cars just shows how all these “green” plans to “solve” the “carbon problem” are full of holes when it comes to actual implementation.

    Energy savings, less waste, better insulation, some domestic solar panels, etc. – these “common sense” solutions can reduce our dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels, but will never shift us away completely.

    Nuclear power generation has been dealt a major political blow by Fukushima. Whether or not this is only temporary, no one knows today.

    “Green” alternate energy is a pipe dream, which the politicians still combine with promises of new “green” jobs, but almost every serious study shows will bring nothing.

    The best solution for countries that have ample natural gas supplies (like the USA) is combined cycle gas-fired plants (ideally combined with industrial, commercial or domestic heating supplied by the low pressure steam, in order the improve overall thermal efficiency).

    For mountainous countries like Switzerland it may be new or expanded hydroelectric capacity.

    TonyB has mentioned tide or wave power as a possibility for nations near the sea.

    For locations, which have no mountains, no coastline, no natural gas – but do have access to coal, this will probably remain the most viable source of energy for the foreseeable future, until nuclear fission can get rid of the current political opposition plus the spent fuel disposal problem.

    All the blab and political posturing in the world will not change this for now. In fact, based on the topics being considered for the upcoming Rio+20 conference, the politicians of this world are apparently beginning to realize that a global agreement on carbon reduction will not happen and that smaller, more easily achievable targets should be set (to set global efficiency standards, cut back emissions of NOx, fluorocarbons and methane, rather than CO2, etc.)
    http://judithcurry.com/2011/06/09/rio20-earth-summit-what-can-we-expect/#more-3516

    IMO the politicians and bureaucrats should stay out of “global” energy policy with enforced “top-down” solutions and leave this up to individual markets to handle as it makes best sense locally or regionally; I also believe that Rio+20 will be another flop like the Copenhagen and Cancun already were.

    What the future will bring in the way of new technologies, etc. is anyone’s guess. (but it’s very unlikely to be a solution based on plopping windmills all over the landscape).

    Max

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