This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
PeterM
“Trailing 5-year average” curve to “prove” it has not “stopped warming the past 10 years”?
As Santa Claus would say: “ho-ho-ho!”
Get serious, Peter.
Max
Hi ALL,
We are being Gored here again in Victoria and NSW (Oz).
We already have declared flood “disaster areas” and potentially worse stuff is forecast. Cherries, chick peas, wheat, vegetables, you name it; huge damage from too much water. Farm machinery bogged. Then, where there are not floods, there are the locust swarms, and there is even a new idea being tested of painting white, replacement young tomato plants that were eaten earlier, because the locusts are greenies.
A few days ago, I walked across a local Plenty River footbridge, normally very well clear of the water, and was amazed to see its heavy steel balustrades bent over, and rubbish lodged in trees from flood, way above my head. Numerous small trees bent flat or snapped off at their base or uprooted.
Al Gore, I hate you!
Axel, Reur 2746,
Yes, you are absolutely correct, and that embarrassment from Queensland in Oz still plots PMA moving average, despite being repetatively advised for at least a year that the correct method for time-series data is CMA. I generally ignore his text, and what others here waste their time on in responding to him, but his graphic (in 2750) caught my eye. (AGAIN)
PeterM
After looking at your “Global Temp Anomaly” curve (2750), I saw it was out of whack.
You did not plot the HadCRUT temperature anomaly record but something totally different.
Your record checks pretty closely with HadCRUT up until around 1980, but then yours is totally screwy, showing much higher anomalies and faster rate of increase than the HadCRUT record.
This appears to be the underlying reason for your false conclusion that it has warmed after 2000 (which the HadCRUT record does NOT show). Since Phil Jones (keeper of the record at the time) also stated that it has cooled most recently, it is obvious that your curve is not based on HadCRUT, but on some other screwy numbers.
Since “a picture is worth 1,000 words”, I’ve plotted your stuff versus the HadCRUT record, from 1850 to 2010 and from 1980 to 2010.
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5210/5240275315_0b2ff44785_b.jpg
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5126/5240283133_539dd0150c_b.jpg
Peter, you should really check your data source before you make silly claims based on screwy information. (I am assuming that this is an innocent error on your part and not a deliberate maneuver.)
Now let’s lay this dead horse to rest, once and for all.
Max
How can scientists possibly determine whether or not birds are happy?
More junk science………
Pollution Is Making Birds Gay, According To New Research
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/03/birds-are-becoming-gay-fr_n_791541.html
Brrrrr!!!!!!!!
The “climate scientists” are right on track!
Freezing temperatures at Miami Beach!
The models are correct, the snow, ice and bitter cold are imaginary.
I think the junk science contingent forgot to add a number or figure in the gay birds in their calculations on predictions of increased warming.
Hey Pete,
Will you adjust the weather for us please? Use your special powers that you claim to possess to control the weather and turn up the heat some will ya?
Cold Blast Kicks Off the New Week
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/cold-blast-snow_2010-12-0
Brute and PeterM
Our last cold wave just ended and temperature is back to “normal” for this time of year (is this thanks to the efforts of “mankind” to “change our climate”?).
But we’re expecting another wave of cold air in a few days.
Isn’t there something “mankind” can do to stop this?
How about levying a tax of some kind – would that help?
Max
Brute and PeterM
Eureka!
I’ve got it!
Here’s how “mankind” can help us avoid more AGW-induced “severe weather” (i.e. another cold wave).
The guys sipping taxpayer-funded margaritas in the Cancun sunshine can start a “global carbon ration card program” – that should do the trick!
Max
Brute
Those ibises that are being mercury-poisoned by the (taxpayer-funded) UF “researchers” should organize a “gay birds’ pride” parade. Maybe they should be sent to San Francisco (in Nancy Pelosi’s taxpayer-funded jet after it gets grounded in January) to get some training.
Whaddaya think?
Max
Max, Reur graphs in 2754:
Well spotted!
Perhaps your friend from Queensland was tricking NH data, which has increased more rapidly post 1980. Global average is roughly similar in the two notable warming periods, and of course SH has decelerated relatively since 1980.
What jarred me was the out-of-phase condition of his 5-year smoothing line, so only two major “errors” clearly there. (not too bad really)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/_nhshgl.gif
Bob_FJ
Yeah. I tied to reconcile your “countryman’s” numbers with the NH record, but had troubles even there. Also tried the land record.
His “funny numbers” get up to an annual anomaly of 0.820C in 1998, 0.747C in 2005 and 0.756C in 2010! This averages 0.774C.
The HadCRUT global numbers for these years are 0.517C, 0.474C and 0.499C (Jan-Oct), respectively, for an average of 0.497C.
Up until the mid-1970s his numbers align fairly well with the HadCRUT record, so the discrepancy is only for the more recent years (the IPCC “poster period”, which supposedly provides evidence for alarming AGW).
His numbers for recent years are exaggerated by around 0.28C, equivalent to over 40% of the entire amount of warming observed from year 1850 until today! [No wonder his chart shows significant recent “warming”; a good part of it is obviously “spurious”.]
It’s a major “boo-boo”, however you slice it.
Max
You’re asking me about the source of the data? You reckon they are “funny numbers”? A major “boo-boo”?
They came from a 100% trustworthy source! Someone who not only has a breathtaking grasp of the the science of global warming but is scrupulously conscientious and free from all political bias.
As Brute said in his #2737
“Here are the numbers Pete.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/crutem3gl.txt “
All I’ve done is plot them out.
PeterM
Advice (2762): Never buy a “bill of goods” (just because you happen to like the way it looks) without doing a bit of “due diligence”. As you saw, it can backfire.
IPCC had a similar problem when it eagerly embraced Mann’s “hockeystick” (which so beautifully told the story of “unprecedented 20th century warming” IPCC was trying to sell) without first checking it out in detail. It backfired and IPCC got “egg on its face”. IPCC then tried to save some face by eagerly embracing a bunch of hastily cobbled-together “spaghetti copy hockeysticks”, while ignoring independent studies from all over the world, which showed just the opposite result. But the damage had been done, as can be read in Andrew Montford’s exhaustive chronicle.
But back to this case: Was Brute “setting you up” for a fall? (He’s a pretty wily guy, as you’ve seen on this thread.)
I’ll leave that question for you and Brute to answer.
Max
Come to think of it Max, I have noticed more birds pairing up and attending Barbara Streisand shows lately.
HMMm. so Peter can cite Phil Jones’ figures but disagrees with Phil himself when he says the earth has cooled?
Instead of looking at the nonsense of global temperatures why not look at individual stations?
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/
Seems to be dropping sharply-but of course its far too short a period to be a trend.
Tonyb
Tonyb,
George Moonbat thinks that its God that is sabotaging the Warmist’s dreams of a Marxist Utopian Paradise.
Warmist Laments: God ‘has declared war on climate talks!’ — ‘Is God determined to prevent a UN climate deal?’ God ‘swaths rich, densely habited nations with snow’ everytime UN has summit
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/06/monbiot-hansen-is-good-god-is-evil/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/dec/02/cancun-climate-change-summit-monbiot
Max,
This has to be the stupidest paper I’ve ever read through:
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth’s troposphere
reaches 2 C above preindustrial levels
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/BGDL/articles/Ainley_etal_2010.pdf
It is referred to following an ABC Science Show interview with Joellen Russel, one of the authors.
She has made some astonishing statements concerning surface global average temperature changes and how they relate to Antarctica. Also, keeping it brief, that the stratospheric T has dropped over Antarctica by 7 (seven) C. So I sniffed around and found this substantial somewhat contradictory analysis:
http://www.climate4you.com/Polar%20temperatures.htm#AntarcticLongMetSeries I haven’t read it all yet, but the graphs from Hadley, GISS, UAH and RSS are fascinating.
BTW; There is stuff I’ve not seen illustrated this way before showing the Arctic being similar to or warmer back in the 1930’s and 1940’s, than in recent times
I’m having continued fun commenting over at the related ABC thread:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2010/3065125.htm
However, my most recent post has not yet emerged from moderation after two widely separated attempts…. Too many inconvenient facts I guess. I’ll make enquiries later today if it does not emerge, and then point out the lack of correlation of Antarctic T‘s with global average T’s etc in another comment.
Brute
Let’s do a quick “sanity check” on the Moonbat’s proclamation:
In which part of our planet are most “rich, densely habited nations”?
Right. In the northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Which part of our planet is most likely to be “swathed with snow” in December?
Right, again – you don’t have to be a meteorologist or PhD climatologist (or have a multi-million dollar climate model) to know that the answer is again: in the northern latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
Now let me ask another question: what is this conference all about and who is there?
It’s a bit embarrassing to admit that this is a “climate conference” and (in addition to several jumbo jet-loads of bureaucrats and politicians) there are a bevy of “climate experts” present.
Hold on – just one more question: And these “climate experts” are surprised that “God” is dumping snow on densely populated regions of the northern hemisphere in December?
Ummm…yes. Worse yet, these same “climate experts” (who apparently don’t know that “God” is likely to dump snow in northern latitudes in December) are going to tell us what our global climate will be in 100 years if we don’t radically change our lifestyles (it’s not “God”, but “man” this time)?
Gimme a break. This is insane, indeed…
But wait!
These guys may not be so stupid after all.
At least they (i.e. those that were not snowed in at their departure airports,like Met Office’s Vicky Pope) escaped snowy regions of the world for their boondoggle this year (maybe they consulted a travel agent rather than their computers).
Max
TonyB,
Where does Phil Jones say the “earth has cooled” ?
Bob_FJ
OK, Bob. I’ve got to admit that I had a hard time staying focused on the Ainley et al. “Penguin response to a 2°C increase in tropospheric temperature” report, but I did my best to stay awake.
First, I heaved a sigh of relief when I read that this “2°C tropospheric temperature increase (above the estimated ”pre-industrial” level) has not yet happened in the real world (so the penguins are just fine today, thank you). However, in the virtual world of “GFDL-CM2.1” and other climate models, it is expected to occur by 2025-2052 (a fairly precise 27-year window), which is however, far enough in the future to be a “safe” projection (no one will be around to hold anyone accountable).
Then, the scientists considered “studies of ancient colonies of penguins”, concluding from their postulated past behavior that “~50% of Emperor colonies” and “~75% of Adélie colonies” would “disappear”, due to the projected “decrease in pack ice cover” (and associated “increase in poynyas”) plus the “increase in snowfall”, which is “predicted to increase in certain areas owing to the intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream” (caused by the projected tropospheric temperature increase of 2°C, attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions).
Whoa! This is pretty heavy-duty stuff. Let’s see if I got it right:
If and when model-projected warming from estimated increase of human greenhouse gases causes the “2°C benchmark” (above estimated 1750 temperature) to be reached in the troposphere, the models predict there will be less pack ice (perhaps) with more polynyas (maybe) + more snow (possibly) = fewer penguins (for sure) than today.
Got it!
I think I’ll skip the other reports you cited. I’m getting a headache.
Max
PeterM
Re ur query to TonyB (2769).
Here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm
Max
PeterM
Re 2771, please see 2745
Max
Brute 2766
I thought that was quite an amusing article.
Monbiot is obviously perplexed that in the real world things don’t seem to be following the IPCC script.
He lives in Wales which has had a great deal of snow and very cold winters. See my 2765 which shows the current reality of the climate in the UK as opposed to the line he has been peddaling over the years (its too short to be a trend but is certainly interesting).
It puts into perspective that the recent warm period had striking similarities to the 1730’s.
Tonyb
Max,
I’ve looked at your link and I still can’t see where you mean.
The only time I can see where Phil Jones has used the word “cooling” is in the sentence “we might have expected some cooling over this period.”
TonyB,
Max is perhaps making this worse for you than it really is. I’m sure you wouldn’t have just made it up that Phil Jones has said that the Earth has cooled. It must have been in another interview, mustn’t it?
Although having said that, it is the aniversary of John Lennon’s death today and they do seem to be playing his “Imagine” song rather a lot on the radio today. Possibly your thinking has been subconsciously affected?
Peter #2774
Perhaps your understandable grief over the cricket has caused a loss of your reading faculties?
Following your attempt to use Phil Jones’ figures, but not his words, to support your views, you now seem to be putting John Lennon forward as a sage.
No doubt you will therefore agree with his observation here-I make no comment that he was ever referring to climate science.
“Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That’s what’s insane about it.”
Tonyb