This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
Robin (272)
I don’t know if it’s still true, but I remember hearing not long ago that China was commissioning a new coal-fired power station every week, and that this was equivalent to the entire generating capacity of the UK every year, which makes our feeble attempts with low-energy light bulbs and windmills look a bit like pissing in the, er, wind.
Brute – the comment about trees living forever was from me. It was an attempt at irony.. :-)
PeterM:
You ask (#273) what is my “argument”. As usual you’re not paying attention: I neither made an argument nor expressed a view. No – I stated a truth and asked a question.
The truth: despite years of “expert” pronouncements, the developing economies, already emitting more CO2 than the developed West, have no intention of cutting back. On the contrary, China and India for example (and now, with their support, South Africa) are building even more vast coal-fired power stations. Global CO2 emissions will inevitably continue to rise.
The question: given your belief in the dangerous AGW hypothesis, do you think therefore that mankind faces catastrophe? (And, if not, why not?)
I have about as much faith in this happening as I have that Al Gore will ever fly commercial…..
UN process in danger unless world agrees on climate change
The United Nation process is in danger of collapsing unless countries are able to agree on the best way to stop global warming by the end of this year, the outgoing head of climate change negotiations has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7578966/UN-process-in-danger-unless-world-agrees-on-climate-change.html
Hi!
My name is Jimmy. I am an important climate scientist. In fact, I am in charge of one of the temperature series being used to measure our planet’s temperature, the “globally and annually averaged hand-picked land and sea surface temperature”.
We have a lot of measurement stations all over the world. Some are in cities or towns , some at airports and some in rural locations. Some are near asphalt parking lots or AC exhausts, others are in the middle of a grassy field. In fact there are over 5,000 stations all over the place (but mostly in the USA and Europe).
There used to be a whole lot more. We once had 15,000 stations, but we got rid of a whole bunch around 1990. These were mostly in ghastly rural places such as Siberia (once part of the Soviet Union), and many inside the Arctic Circle.
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html
Now you probably know that the “globally and annually averaged hand-picked land and sea surface temperature is around 15C. But in these awful spots the yearly average is 1 to 4C.
So by eliminating 150 stations with 4C average temp, the average for the total stations would be increased by 0.4C. This is as much as the total warming we have seen since 1976, when the current warming spurt started.
Now you may have heard warnings from me about “irreversible tipping points”, dangerous CO2 levels, drastic warming partly “hidden in the pipeline” and “coal death trains”, so you might think I would try to make the warming problem look worse than it really is. And you might think that by eliminating these stations, the global average was allowed to go up by these 0.4C, so that warming would look worse. But we took special care to make sure this would not occur by making the appropriate adjustments, right?
Yeah…
Hey Jimmie,
The correlation between temperature rise and number of weather stations seems to be the cause and effect needle in the haystack we’ve been looking for all this time.
Instead of raising taxes, building windmills/solar panels and retooling our factories it would seem that all we have to do is build some more weather stations to stop the relentless, acute rise in global temperatures………
Max,
Can you do a graph of Al Gore’s net worth vs. the global average temperature since 2000?
Sorry, but by way of contrast to the earlier cuddlier polar bear image; “Polar bears turn cannibal because of AGW”
For more details, see my teasing of blogger Marco here
I was wondering whether to put this on the general election thread.
Dear Brute
Thanks for tip about adding weather stations to resolve AGW symptom. (See below for list of stations we operate today, plus some of those we scrapped.)
http://www.john-daly.com/stations/stations.htm
Problem is, we’d have to put them back in these absolutely ghastly Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberian locations like Murmansk or Oktiabrskaya to get the desired impact, and it’s much harder to find station managers than it was back in the good ol’ USSR days, when you could simply give them the choice between the weather station or the nearby Gulag.
Now they all want to be at the air-conditioned station on Wilshire Boulevard in downtown LA!
Ah, the good old pre-Glasnost days of Socialist Realpolitik!
Yours truly,
Jimmy
I love this……Solar Farm operators in Spain figured out that because they can charge much, much more for “green” power to nutty environmentalist consumers…..they decided to hook up diesel generators alongside the solar panels and collect even more money from the dopey Eco-Chondriacs.
Only trouble is, someone got wise when they figured out that the solar farms were producing electricity…………at night.
The other reason for using diesel generators to boost the solar farm output is that the solar panel farms are producing far less power than originally stated and they needed to justify the expense so they can build MORE solar farms at taxpayer expense.
So, the kooky liberals buying this (very expensive) electricity think they’re “saving” the planet……while the reality is that the power is generated by diesel generators puffing away……………
The insanity of greenery
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/13/the-insanity-of-greenery/#more-18452
Greenies at work.
There has been a big stink going on here for about 9 (?) days following the grounding of a modest Chinese coal carrier on the Great Barrier Reef. It became a tourist attraction with federal and state politicians taking various flights to have a look. The PM expressed rage and threatened anyone responsible etc.
First there was doom and gloom about oil spill, but in the end it was contained to an estimated 2 tons, whilst the remainder was pumped onto another ship.
Then it was “shocking scarring” of the reef with one expert from the marine park authority that I saw on TV claiming that it was the worst damage he had ever seen.
Here is an extract from one report:
GBRMPA spokesman David Wachenfeld says the ship has left a scar on the reef about three kilometres long and 250 metres wide.
“We found areas of up to 20 to 40 metres across where the top of the shoal has been completely pulverised, so all of the plants and animals have been killed,” he said.
As I understand it from other reading, the area of severe damage was over a length of ~100m, caused as the vessel actually grounded. It has been claimed that the lighter and wider damage subsequently resulted from drift, (presumably sideways), despite two restraining tugs being in attendance. (It has been towed to a safe mooring BTW)
Now they are worried about anti fouling paint scraped off the hull destroying all life.
Then, shock horror, there was oil washed up on a nearby island bird sanctuary. However, rather embarrassingly, a TV crew followed the clean-up party, and they were only able to pick-up some hand-sized bits of what was very obviously OLD oil-tar, all contained in some hand-held plastic bags.
I thought about trying to find, or mark-up a map of the reef, showing the scale of the damage, but unsuccessfully concluded that since it is ~2,000 k long it would be rather difficult to scale it.
Bob_FJ
Shakespeare wrote about a story similar to your Great Barrier Reef apocalypse: “Much Ado about Nothing”.
Had the ship been carrying giant wind turbine parts (or solar panels) from China, would the “disaster” have been so bad?
Max
Robin/TonyN,
Al Gore just held a news conference and stated that Britain is now being buried under pumice and ash just like Pompeii due to global warming……
Are you guys alright over there?
Brute
Al (our pal) is right, of course.
We have seen a flurry of recent anthropogenically caused earthquakes causing massive loss of life, and now this anthropogenically caused volcanic eruption causing a shutdown of air traffic across Europe (even for private jets, such as that of our pal, Al).
Apocalypse is obviously near (as PeterM will surely agree).
We are doomed, Brute.
But there is a glimmer of hope.
If we all submit to a draconian carbon “guilt tax” or cap and trade scheme run by our super-huckster and world savior, Al, we might possibly be saved from (otherwise certain) damnation and destruction.
Amen, brother! Pass the plate for Al, our pal.
Max
Brute
Re 284.
It’s not only in Spain where power companies are cashing in on gullible greenies.
The Swiss power cos also sell (at a premium) “green” power.
Now Switzerland has no viable fossil fuels, but is fortunate to be able to generate a large %-age of its power from hydro-electric plants (how “green” can you get?), with most of the rest coming from nukes (not much deadly CO2 there, either).
But nuclear power does not officially count as “green”.
When the unsuspecting greenie signs up for “green power”, he is buying whatever is in the grid, whether it comes from a Swiss (or French) nuke, a Swiss hydroelectric plant, a Swiss gas-fired standby plant or imported power from coal-fired plants.
But he feels good that he is doing something to “help save the planet”, when in fact he is only getting ripped off by the power company.
Was it the famous P.T. Barnum (or your current President) that proclaimed that a sucker is born every day?
Max
Brute, re your #287, it isn’t quite The Last Days of Pompeii over here just yet, although the sunset this evening was pretty and a harbinger of more like it, probably. It’s also eerily quiet in my neighbourhood, which is very close to Heathrow – no planes in or out until 1 o’clock tomorrow afternoon at least.
If Katla erupts (and it might well) things might become even more interesting. The last time it blew up in earnest was 1918, and although there were no discernable effects on the weather then (or so I’ve read), it’s also probably worth recalling that when another Icelandic volcano Laki erupted in 1783, there was a severe northern hemisphere winter to follow.
So climatically speaking, it’s one to watch, maybe.
Alex,
I’m suspending my rapier wit for this one post as I know that it is a serious situation and I pray for the safety and health of the people of Iceland as well as the UK and Europe.
I’ll resume my sarcastic tone tomorrow. Keep us posted………
God Bless.
Brute, fortunately the ash plume is keeping to high altitudes, so it’s mainly a threat to airliners, although locally in Iceland they are having to contend with a dusting of ash near the ground (and there’s also flooding from the melted glacier.)
Just a very general observation – it’s ironical that while there’s so much that’s questionable and inconclusive in the global warming debate, when nature does do something that impacts on us significantly – like these eruptions, like hurricanes, blizzards, tsunamis and earthquakes – we know about it and right away!
Brute
Here in Switzerland there has been no impact from the Iceland volcano (except that many flights to the north have been cancelled).
A quick Google check on the potential “climate impact” shows “scientists” telling us that it will have no impact on global temperature, since the ash and SO2 has not gone high enough to reach the upper troposphere. So Alex may not need to be concerned that it will trigger very cold winters (we’ve had one of those just prior to the eruption, anyway).
It will be interesting to see how the AGW crowd plays this one: if it warms this year “scientists warn that warming would have been much more severe without the Eyjafjallajökull eruption”; if it cools “scientists caution that Eyjafjallajökull only provides minor ‘speed bump’ in rampant global warming”.
But to come to another point (made by Alex, as well). It appears that we have had an “unusual” number of earthquakes over the past several months, and now this volcano, with the news travelling fast.
Can we be sure that these are not anthropogenically caused and somehow related to AGW? Maybe it is all that “hidden energy in the pipeline” from AGW (as postulated by James E. Hansen) that is now being released? Maybe NASA should launch a multi-million dollar (US taxpayer funded) study to see how big the AGW impact really was here.
What do you think?
Max
Max,
I think that mankind has angered the Earth God Gaia as was foretold through the Sacred Scriptures (IPCC AR4)………Gaia is screaming out in anger over our disrespect and is punishing mankind by lashing out in climactic retribution to punish and destroy the wicked Enviro-realists (that would be you and me).
If we don’t sacrifice some virgins quickly, all will be lost……
Or, it could be that everything is normal and it’s been a slow news cycle………
Brute:
Well, the Earth God (Goddess?) Gaia has certainly punished me for my enviro-realist sins. Yesterday, Mrs G and I left for the airport for a short holiday in the Algarve and then Seville. As we left home, my computer said the flight was “operational’. When, after 20 minutes, we got to the airport it was cancelled. The airport was like a good humoured (no one to blame) but unruly zoo – and, after about 2 hours of queuing, we were just able to get 2 tickets for a flight just after midday tomorrow (Saturday). So we kept our cases packed and rebooked our taxi. I’ve just heard (10:30pm UK time) that tomorrow’s flight is now cancelled. We’ve given up.
Trouble is that it’s so difficult to find virgins these days.
Robin,
Couldn’t you and Mrs. G use that wonderful train system over there that everyone is constantly bragging about? (primarily Europeans)….
Isn’t there a under-channel “Chuttle” or some other budget busting project that is a “marvel of engineering” that you could use to get to the mainland?
I must say, considering the amount of CO2 emitted to fly yourself and Mrs. G such a short distance is not very “green”….did you plant a bunch of trees to offset your “climate expense” before planning this trip?
NCAR’s missing heat – they could not find it any-where
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/16/ncars-missing-heat-they-could-not-find-it-any-where/#more-18554
Stock market is down 125 points today……..General Electric dropped a half a buck……..my “green” energy investment strategy isn’t paying off…..
They’d better start selling more of those stupid windmills or we’ll have to move to Great Britain and cash in on the free government handouts.
Brute,
“Free government handouts ?” I thought that those of us who lived in social democratic European type systems were “serfs” not pampered idlers?
Make your mind up. Which is it?
The way the system should work, and has so far for me personally, is that it starts off giving all children decent health care and a good publicly funded education. Then as earning power is increased that all gets paid back, and more besides, into the system through general taxation. Hopefully it will look after us all when we’re old but sometimes I’m not too sure about that.
I don’t like writing out tax cheques any more than anyone else but, as you right wingers keep pointing out, we know we don’t get something for nothing.
Brits, Europeans, and Aussies are free to come and go as we please. In many ways we must have more liberty than you Americans to do that. Its quite noticeable just how few American backpackers there are in Australia compared to young European travellers.
It was a joke Pete……..Remember? Slow news day……..
While I have you on the wire, something you can help me with…….you Socialists are always advocating increased government involvement and increasing government spending…….but never offer to pay any more than you owe……why is that? (It’s tax season here)……
You’re always willing to shout from the hilltops, Spend!…..but never voluntarily write a check over your tax bill to the government…….you want “free” stuff for everyone as long as you don’t have to pay for it?
Liberal Vice President Biden is a great example…..makes buckets of money and gives $4,000.00 to charity this year……big spender that one……..I guess he’s too busy redistributing other people’s wealth…….