This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
Max,
I would say that my politics were Democratic Socialist in the tradition of the Australian and British Labor Parties and the European Social Democratic parties. Although these parties don’t like to use the term socialist any more I would say it was a fair description of policies designed to achieve social justice. The level of a young persons education shouldn’t depend on the wealth of their parents. The standard of health care shouldn’t depend on a person being in a job etc etc.
Brute would probably consider that to be Marxist but its the sort of Government that most people in Australia want even if they vote Liberal or National. The Liberal and National parties don’t really dare advocating changing to a US style user pays system, although many of their more right wing members do, I would say, have a secret desire to go that way.
I would say its pretty much the same in all European countries too, and the election of Obama shows that the US is moving in that direction.
History has shown that there is no need for violent revolution to achieve all this. So to that extent I would disagree with Marx.
PeterM
Thanks for clarification:
I’d say that mine were democratic in the more conservative mainstream tradition of Switzerland.
But, as outsiders, neither of us are experts on the situation in the USA, whereas Brute comes closer as a US resident and citizen.
Your statement on Tea Party politics, US demographics and a resulting return to 1940s “Jim Crow” laws there is not only absurd; it is presumptuous of a total outsider to make such silly predictions.
Had you predicted that an expected “slide to the right” in Australia would bring back the policies that caused the extermination of many aborigines there, I could accept it as a legitimate opinion of an “insider”, but the other is pure BS.
My opinion on this, of course.
But hey, it’s all way off topic and TonyN will soon bounce us.
Back to the ongoing (and unsettled) scientific debate on the premise of “dangerous AGW”!
Max
Max,
Yes, of course, I could be wrong in my prediction of the way things will turn out in the USA. We’ll see. Brute seems particularly enamoured of Hayek’s views. Its certainly not wrong to point that his support for Democracy is conditional and lukewarm at best. If the people have the temerity to vote in Governments of which he, an others of like mind, disapproved, he supported the rights of the ruling classes to remove them by military force.
If Brute is advocating Hayekism for the USA then we probably aren’t in disagreement of the way things are likely to turn out.
Max,
I suspect these quotations are a few years old and wouldn’t be repeated now we’ve had record annual temperatures according to some groups, near record annual temperatures and record decadal temperatures according to all groups.
I’ve just modified the graph I posted previously:
To show:
1) In the green circle, the blip which may have led to these comments. It could, at the time, just possibly have been an indicator of a real cooling. There were three years of cooling prior to this. 2008 was a very cool year. 1998, which was a very warm year had just dropped out of the 10 year rolling average which also took a dip.
However, since then we have had three years of warming. The red line has started to creep upwards again. The most you can say about the blip is that temperatures are about 0.07 degrees cooler than they would have been otherwise. Is this just natural variability? Yes possibly. Possibly measurent error. Possibly the effect of the solar cycle. What is not possible is to say that it is in any way statistically significant, and that a reappraisal of AGW theory is called for.
2) I’ve also added the reference for the raw data. Check it out for yourself and plot your own graphs if you don’t trust what I’m saying.
PeterM
You say “we’ve had 3 years of warming”.
Sounds reasonable.
I said “we’ve had 10 years of no warming” (actually slight cooling).
Also right.
We do not disagree with Met Office, Trenberth, HadCRUT, UAH or any of the others here Peter.
But let’s end this conversation. It has become extremely repetitive and boooooring.
Max
PeterM
Download the monthly HadCRUT temperature record starting January 1991.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly
Then draw a linear trend line for the first decade (January 1991 thru December 2000) and a second linear trend line for the most recent decade (January 2001 thru December 2010).
You’ll see that the first decade showed strong warming while the most recent one showed slight cooling (which I have agreed to call “lack of warming, statistically”).
End of story, Peter.
Max
The most recent election held on November 4th 2010 was a Republican landslide. A complete and thorough rejection of Obama, Speaker of the House Pelosi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid and their socialist policies.
As Obama commented shortly after the election, the Democrat Party got “shellacked” (translated from American to English means………they got their asses kicked). This is only the Federal election results………
More importantly, 10 states switched from Democrat to Republican control. 32 states are now governed by Republicans. 37 state houses are now controlled by Republicans.
26 states are suing the federal government in Federal court as “Obamacare” (socialized medicine) is unconstitutional.
A federal judge ruled last Monday that “Obamacare” is unconstitutional and………all aspects of the law are null & void.
The Republican controlled House of Representatives voted successfully to repeal Obamacare last week.
America has rejected socialism and Obama.
The presidential election next year will be the end of Obama and his destructive Marxist agenda.
The most popular bumper sticker the days reads:
One
Big
Ass
Mistake
A
One other thing regarding Obama…….he’ll go down in history as the American President responsible for the entire middle east regressing into a muslim caliphate/theocracy in the same model as Iran.
The middle east will be a severe problem for the western world for generations due to Obama’s bumbling “foreign policy” initiatives.
He’s screwed up worse than president Jimmy “the peanut” Carter.
Brute,
I know I probably shouldn’t ask, but I’m just wondering how you work out that Obama is at all responsible for what’s currently going on in Egypt and Tunisia? Hasn’t trouble been brewing there for yeras?
Their old regimes clearly aren’t democratic. Aren’t you Americans supposed to be favour of democracy? Isn’t it a good thing that things are changing? Yes, there is a risk that the outcome may not be to your liking, but that’s democracy, right? The end result isn’t always to everyone’s liking.
I’d agree that getting policy wrong can cause long term problems. Eisenhower and Churchill famously cocked things up for future generations in 1953
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
Pete,
Publicly flogging women is the Islamic form of “democracy”.
Beheading “infidels” at halftime during soccer matches is Islamic “democracy”.
Stoning homosexuals in the public square is Islamic “democracy”.
Hamas, Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao, Mussolini, Ahmadinejad and Hugo Chavez were “democratically” elected resulting in the deaths of tens of millions and the misery of hundreds of millions more.
Intelligence agencies warned Obama some time ago of the political unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, etc…………his “foreign policy” is non-existent. He’s done nothing.
I’m not going to write anymore about this on this thread……suffice it to say that Obama and his administration have been too busy playing golf, throwing parties and traveling on vacation to be concerned with the Muslim Brotherhood establishing an Islamic, sadistic, caliphate stretching from Spain to Indonesia.
Ironically, next to Israel, Iraq is the most stable state in the region.
This is serious………deadly serious………and much more of a threat to humankind than regulating plant food (CO2) in an effort to generate tax revenues and punish legitimate/profitable businesses………however; this is not the place to discuss it.
I’m sorry that I brought it up.
I bought the tickets….$5.00, cut rate, early bird matinee.
While I reject the “off with their heads”, “lock them up in the dungeon”, “all property belongs to the King” notions of a monarchy, I respect the tradition and the history of the institution. I respect the structure and stability………I find the historical aspect of (particularly) the British monarchy fascinating. I enjoy the (now outdated) pageantry.
Nowadays relegated to a useless figurehead, I’m not certain that the system is even viable and whether or not it should be maintained…………If I were British, I certainly would object to my property, (my earnings) being confiscated to support it.
The movie was good though…………I recommend it.
It is more so the story of a friendship developed between the King and “a commoner”………or simply, a story about friendship………
Nonetheless, it was well done.
Brute
[The spam filter apparently did not like the link – so am posting separately]
There is no question that the Arab world is tentatively trying to move toward democratization (even if there are a lot of “bad guys” out there hoping to be able to jump into the vacuum and seize power as happened in Iran). And the jury is still out on how this will all play out, especially if it moves too fast and there is no peaceful, democratic transition based on free elections.
But interestingly, Time Magazine editor-at-large, Fareed Zakaria (normally not a fan of former President George W. Bush) gives him credit for starting this process in Iraq:
[See link]
Are there others in the USA who now see this process as having begun in Iraq?
Max
TonyN: Realize this is OT but the events in Egypt and elsewhere are of world-wide interest (and, hey, maybe Al Gore did warn us a while back that this would all happen unless we immediately purchased carbon credits from his now defunct company).
Ethanol Fuel from Corn Faulted as ‘Unsustainable Subsidized Food Burning’
http://healthandenergy.com/ethanol.htm
[OK. Here goes again. Remove [parentheses]
Link
[http://www.lawweekly.org/?module=displaystory&story_id=3207&edition_id=169&format=html]
Max,
I’m not so sure that your 3437 is so far off topic. Inflation has had a significant impact on the events currently unfolding in the middle east……people are hungry for bread which they cannot afford.
One tank of ethanol blended fuel in an average sized vehicle represents the equivalent of enough food calories to sustain a person for one year.
“Green” policy again plays a hand in causing rises in grain prices (that should be used for food) instead, (with government subsidy) being used to burn in our vehicles.
One gallon of ethanol requires more energy to produce than it represents as fuel.
Another inconvenient truth that the green lobby/global warming industry has failed to bring to light.
By the way, I think it was the Egyptians who invented bread.
Waal, dang me, Brute.
Mah granpappy alweez tol me thet makin corn likker wuz a good biznus.
Now this hyere perfessur up yonder et Cornell sez it ain’t so.
Confoozin (but not amoozin).
Brute,
After Vietnam all Americans should have learned that they just can’t control everything that goes on in the world.
I’m just as opposed to Islamic fundamentalism as you are, but it doesn’t just happen for no reason at all. Over the years, US support for repressive regimes in the Middle East has exacerbated the problem.
Did you read the link on the 1953 Iran coup? I bet that isn’t something that is much discussed, or even known about in the USA. Everyone knows about it in the middle East though, and the lesson to be learned from history is the Americans aren’t interested in democracy, and the Mullahs have been the only ones able to stand up to American Imperialism.
Not quite what you intended, eh?
Hey Brute (still OT, until Tony throws us off)
“Heads will roll” monarchs were a bad bunch, to be sure, but more heads (20,000 to 40,000) were chopped off in the name of “liberté, égalité and fraternité” when a “democratic revolution” got out of control.
Could it have resulted from unusual climate conditions of the period (TonyB)?
Or “the crazy French”(Brute)?
Or simply “Murphy’s Law” (Max)?
Who knows?
Max
“Let Them Eat Ethanol” – Al Gore
This gem
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/022cf59c-3091-11e0-9de3-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F022cf59c-3091-11e0-9de3-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2011%2F02%2F06%2Fmore-stupid-environmentalist-tricks%2F
from Spain — Madrid’s mayor proclaimed massive air pollution reductions except, ah,
– reminds us of the cheapest way to cool the planet:
Reopen the Canadian and Siberian temperature stations closed ca. 1990, prompting ‘the hottest decade on record’.
PeterM
“American Imperialism”?
Sounds like a 1970’s Soviet-inspired sound bite.
Get with it, Peter – you are passé.
Max
Ummmm Pete……..that was almost 60 years ago.
Jethro Tull – Living In The Past
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsCyC1dZiN8
Hey Peter,
Back to “American Imperialism”.
We in Switzerland are fully aware that “American Imperialism” pulled our tiny bacon out of the fire when Nazi Germany threatened to overrun us.
As an Australian, you should also be aware that the same “American Imperialism” pulled your bacon out when Imperial Japan was preparing to invade you.
And there are both the German and the Japanese people, who after their repressive regimes had been defeated, were pulled back to their feet by the “American Imperialism” of the Marshall Plan.
I have close friends in the Czech Republic and Hungary. They are also fully aware that “American Imperialism” eventually wore down and defeated their Soviet masters so they could control their own destiny and install free governments.
Then there are the millions of South Koreans who were also saved from the Communist North by
“American Imperialism” and –as a result – are now a thriving modern democracy while the impoverished North is still stuck in the 1950s.
So forget about “American Imperialism” – it’s a lot of out-dated polemic BS.
Max
PS (Of course, the Brits, Canadians, etc. also helped out, but the key factor was American.)
Max,
maybe you have abetter word for it but “imperialism” is defined as “the creation and maintenance of an unequal economic, cultural and territorial relationship, usually between states and often in the form of an empire, based on domination and subordination.”
The US have hundreds of overseas military bases in 64 foreign countries. Their total military spending is greater than the military spending of China, Russia, Japan, India, and the rest of NATO combined.
Since WW2 the following countries have been bombed by the USA: China 1945-46 , Korea 1950-53, China 1950-53, Guatemala 1954, Indonesia 1958, Cuba 1959-60, Guatemala 1960, Belgian Congo 1964,Guatemala 1964,Dominican Republic 1965-66,Peru 1965, Laos 1964-73, Vietnam 1961-73, Cambodia 1969-70, Guatemala 1967-69 , Lebanon 1982-84, Grenada 1983-84, Libya 1986, El Salvador 1981-92, Nicaragua 1981-90, Libya 1986, Iran 1987-88, Libya 1989, Panama 1989-90, Iraq 1991-2002, Kuwait 1991 Somalia 1992-94, Croatia 1994 (of Serbs at Krajina), Bosnia 1995, Iran 1998 (airliner), Sudan 1998, Afghanistan 1998, Yugoslavia 1999
And presumably you feel the term “imperialism” is too strong a term to describe this?
Brute,
Yes, the Iranian coup was nearly 58 years ago. World War 2 ended nearly 66 years ago. The US civil war ended 155 years ago.
But all these events, and many others too, still affect us all. You had it right when you said that whatever happens now in Egypt could affect the world for generations to come.