This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
Global Warming is causing animals to freeze to death in Mexican zoos……seems that global warming is harming poor helpless animals after all…………
Snow, Ice Cause 90+ Roof Collapses In MA…
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/02/05/skating-club-of-boston-evacuated-other-roofs-inspected/
Cold snap cripples states — in Mexico…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/05/us-mexico-cold-idUSTRE71405N20110205
Zoo animals freeze to death…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iI2UI22dNM5fee80Mcftrxids4MA?docId=cd0ffd47df5d4d6d80c5ffb3ebb54a5a
Have you given any thought to vacating/abandoning your home leaving it to an Aboriginal tribe to use?
After all, by living where you are you’re participating in Australian Imperialism.
As a matter of fact, returning to your ancestral homeland (my guess would be Great Britain) would only suffice in reversing the “imperialism” in which you are currently participating.
Max,
This is an interesting quote:
A republic is a government of law under a Constitution. The Constitution holds the government in check and prevents the majority (acting through their government) from violating the rights of the individual. Under this system of government a lynch mob is illegal. The suspected criminal cannot be denied his right to a fair trial even if a majority of the citizenry demands otherwise.
http://www.albatrus.org/english/goverment/govenrment/democracy%20versus%20repubblic.htm
Global Warming has hit the US with a vengence this season. This church marquee says it all…….
Brute,
Would you say that Ronald Reagan was advocating a return to lynching? When he said:
“Democracy is worth dying for, because it’s the most deeply honourable form of government ever devised by man.”
Or, maybe the reason for your being cool on the idea is a feeling that Karl Marx may have been right when he said:
“Democracy is the road to socialism.”
Brute,
The sign on the Church is amusing but it does raise some interesting questions of just what Christians really believe about God.
For instance, they must think he has the power to create as much snow as he likes, but at the same time be incapable of knowing whether or not it’s actually needed. Maybe some half-wit did actually decide to pray for some more snow, and God said “Ok will two metres do?”
Or when Australia was in drought for ten or more years would that have mean that Christians would believe that God was getting behind in his correspondence? He’d have have dozens of unanswered requests for rain. So, do they think when he finally did get around to it, he just added them all up, and got them all out of the way by ordering a month long deluge?
Do Christians really believe he is that stupid? If so, they’d be better just not saying anything to him at all!
PeterM
Re your question in 3449.
Yes.
Please refer to my 3448.
Max
PS “Kuwait 1991”? Get serious, Peter. You are beginning to sound like a total fruitcake.
PPS Let’s get back on topic and forget this stupid stuff.
Brute
Your quote on a “pure democracy” makes sense (for a relatively small group, such as a lynch mob).
Would this apply for the (non-democratic) Peoples’ Republic of China or the former Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, both of which had a (non-democratic) “government of law under a constitution”, but lacked the democracy part?
I think you need both for the system to truly work, i.e. a democratic republic (as we have in both your country and mine).
Don’t you agree?
Max
PeterM
How silly when you ask:
Of course not. Don’t be silly.
We all (even Al your pal) know that this was directly caused by AGW.
Just like the recent floods.
Or the most recent cyclone.
Or Brute’s record cold.
Hot, cold, wet or dry – it’s all AGW at work.
That’s what Kevin Trenberth means by his new postulation that the scientific “null hypothesis” should be that all extreme weather events are directly attributable to AGW.
Have you somehow missed this? What kind of a scientist are you, Peter? I’m shocked! Get with it, man!
Max
Max
Peter,
It warms my heart to read that you’re acknowledging the existence of God.
Max,
Of course I agree……I used the lynch mob analogy for Peter’s benefit. He seems to have difficulty understanding basic concepts……..as he admitted previously; he’s “puzzled” by rudimentary ideas.
Now if only we can rid his diseased mind of his racist beliefs, we could conclude that there really is hope for him yet!
Brute,
As usual you’ve got it wrong. This time on two counts.
1) I’m only acknowledging that people do believe in God, not his existence. I’m just asking a question of why people pray. It seems a bit odd that anyone would, say, pray for the end of a war that had taken a million or so lives. How does that work then? People must think this supreme being really has the power to stop wars, but he needs a consistent lobbying through the power of prayer to make him to “get his ass into gear” and actually do something about it? Does he finally say something like “I’d better do some something about all those casualities in Iraq, I’ll put it on my to-do list. I don’t suppose I’ll get any peace until it stops. Mind you, I’ve heard it all before. You stop one war in one place and they just go and start a new one somewhere else. Would you believe it – these humans actually go around saying that I’d told them to start the bloody war in the first place. I really don’t know why I bother “.
2) Racist beliefs? I think you may be confusing me with someone else.
Confused?
No Pete………You’ve admitted that you believe that some races of people are “more evolved” than others.
I suppose the next logical step for you will be justified by the “science” of eugenics?
Brute,
If you’d like to check on what I wrote originally:
“No race is more evolved than another, but because local conditions are different so too is the outcome of local evolution.”
See #3021 (page 21). You took it to mean the exactly opposite, and I had to repeat the phrase in #3071
And now, once again, you are claiming the opposite, and, once again, I have to repeat it!
You are obviously not paying attention. Maybe the only way for you to get this into your brain is engrave the sentence on a six inch nail and hammer it in with some force !
Now you’re threatening me with violence/bodily harm……
So………not only do you harbor racist beliefs you also wish to harm others.
What’s next with you?
Will you have me sent to a reeducation camp to force me to adopt your racist, violent, views?
Brute,
You’re such a dim-wit. I was suggesting that you do it yourself. Even if I wanted to – I can’t reach from here!
I’m not sure why you think (if that’s the right word for goes on inside your head) that I have at any time uttered any racist language. I haven’t. You’re delusional about many other things so I guess this is just an extra one.
Brute & Tempterrain:
You’re way off thread and its time to move on.
PeterM
Now that TonyN has gotten us back on topic here, let’s go back to Bob_FJ’s 3422 and my 3423.
Vicky Pope of the Met Office has told us that 1998 was a record warm year largely as a result of an unusually strong and long El Niño event in 1997/98.
NOAA data (cited above) have shown us that roughly one-third of the warming observed from 1976 to 2000 (or from 1991 to 2000) was caused by unusually strong El Niño events (as seen on Bob_FJ’s ENSO Index chart).
Vicky Pope has also told us that the observed “lack of warming” since the end of 2000 (despite record increase in CO2 level) can be attributed to “natural variability”, referring in part to the recent shift to La Niña events (also seen on Bob_FJ’s chart).
My question to you:
Does this mean in your mind that natural climate forcing may be playing a much larger role than assumed by IPCC (who relegate it to less than 8% of the forcing of CO2 alone)?
Should IPCC spend a larger effort in trying to establish what the natural forcing factors are, now that most of the past research has gone to defining and refining estimates of anthropogenic forcing factors (primarily human CO2 with feedbacks)?
Just like to get your thoughts on this. (I would answer “yes” to both questions myself.
Max
TonyN,
I would also add the word boring.
ALL,
Here is an interesting article on the Oz ABC Science show that maybe has bearing on historical timing of climate?
EXTRACT: Radiocarbon is used to date things that were once living. The age of a sample is determined by comparing the amount of radiocarbon isotope carbon-14 which was around when the sample was alive with what remains in the sample today. As the radioactive isotope already in the environment is constantly declining as it decays, the technique works best and with most accuracy at times of high production of the isotope. And this is determined by incoming cosmic rays from the sun. There have been periods, such as between 800BC and 400BC when production of carbon-14 was low and dating accuracy during this period is compromised. At other times precision is high, often at less than 100 years.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3124495.htm
You can either click for a transcript, or alternatively for audio.
I have a comment there and it survived their moderation, unlike about 5 others, although it might be considered harmlessly controversial, like I mention Velikovsky’s (ignored) revised Egyptology, and I might have worded my tease at the end on the ”Ozone Hole” a little better.
Max,
Re your questions – I’d just suggest you looked at the graph of the Hadcrut data in 3421.
Yes, it’s possible, going back to the 1950’s, to attribute, albeit with a fair degree of speculation, various bumps in the graph to various different causes: El Ninos, La Linas, Volcanic eruptions, the Solar Cycles etc. Add in various measurement errors and the pseudo-random nature of the graph is pretty much what can be expected.
However, the effect of these drop out when series averaging is applied and the underlying nature of the warming is clearly apparent.
The graph of solar flux shows two things.
Firstly, that as CO2 concentrations rose in the early years of this century the solar flux fell which is a plausible explanation of why temperatures were flat during this period.
Secondly, the graph shows exactly the same pseudo random characteristics. They are dealt with in exactly the same fashion using series averaging. It’s not too difficult to find clusters of data points for the years when the flux was falling, apply a linear regression line to them and then claim that they showed a rising flux.
But only an idiot would do that, wouldn’t they?
Anyone who followed the UK government’s Bedtime Story advertising campaign may be interested in this article:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=11590&page=1
It considers a number of ‘mind bomb’ campaigns in the the context of ever-growing public disquiet about what they are being told about global warming.
PeterM
Thanks for graph and reply.
Guess it makes sense to say that ENSO has affected the recent temperature trends as I calculated from the NOAA data (and Vicky Pope stated).
Then there are surely other (non-CO2 related factors, as you stated.) The net change in solar activity (highest level in several thousand years until the recent decline) may also have played a role, although the mechanism is as yet unclear.
Spencer has suggested that cloud changes may be driven by the PDO cycle (he shows a good correlation, but has not postulated a mechanism). This could go both ways by affecting both the GH warming from outgoing LW radiation being absorbed as well as the reflected incoming SW radiation resulting from low level cloud albedo.
And then there’s always Svensmark et al., whose cosmic ray/cloud hypothesis is being tested at CERN.
I’m sure we’ll know a lot more about all this in a few years than we do today.
Max
Arctic Ice Volume Has Increased 26% Over The Last Three Years
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/arctic-ice-volume-has-increased-26-over-the-last-three-years/
Government Data Confirms that, Since 1998, the US is Cooling at a Rate of 9.6 deg F/Century
http://thetruthpeddler.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/official-government-data-confirms-that-us-is-cooling-at-a-rate-of-over-17-deg-ccentury-since-1998/
TonyN
Very interesting (3471).
It appears that, as the general public become more and more bored by the fear mongering tactics of the “powers that be”, these are continuing to ratchet up the hysteria, all to a reaction of more boredom (or even ridicule) by the general public.
This would all seem to me to be the “crying wolf” story (possibly combined with “the emperor’s clothes”), with one notable exception: The general (taxpaying) public is funding these silly attempts by the political elite to frighten it. This is where I believe the action by yourself and others to stop this attempted fear mongering at public expense is not only justified, it is necessary in a democratic society.
I would be extremely angry here in Switzerland if I thought my taxes were going toward a government scheme to frighten me.
Max.