This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
Hi Max
Don’t know if you saw this (also listen to the audio) from An Aussie Govt climate spokesman?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/andrew-bolt-scores-the-quote-of-the-millennium/
It says exactly what we both have been trying to tell Peter, that our co2 reduction efforts will have precisely zero effect on global temperatures.
If Peter-or anyone who claims to have a modicum of intelligence- thinks the public will sacrifice their personal and national econmoies on the off chance that in 1000 years there may be some theoretical miniscule effect on temperatures, then he is even more of an irrational green zealot that I take him for.
If not the end, surely the beginning of the emd of the climate insanity that has overtaken us for two decades.
tonyb
PeterM
When Brute cited an old Miami Sun article from 1986 quoting some absurd warming projections made by James E. Hansen (3849), you seemed to doubt the quote and asked for more references (3854).
Here are a few others.
http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/james-hansen-1986-within-15-years-temps-will-be-hotter-than-past-100000-years/
Hansen has been making exaggerated doomsday predictions for well over 20 years – and (fortunately) none of them have come true. I’d say his “hit rate” has been 0% to date, so there is no reason to believe that it will be any different for future predictions.
Max
TonyB
Thanks for posting link to Flannery interview.
It appears clear to me when even the AGW proponents like Flannery have recognized it, we can clearly say:
A bitter pill for Peter to swallow.
BTW Judith Curry has a thread running on precisely this topic entitled: “Inconvenient truths about energy policy”, with an excellent lead article on carbon capture and sequestration by Rutt Bridges, a geophysicist who is active in energy policy in the USA.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/03/23/inconvenient-truths-about-energy-policy/#comment-57437
In the comments, it is easy to see the frustration of the proponents of the dangerous AGW hypothesis when they are confronted with the fact that we are unable to change our planet’s climate.
Max
More fraud perpetrated by Briffa et al……Did these racketeers think they could get away with this global warming hoax?
Peter,
Your enviro-religious beliefs have been uncovered as being based on nothing more than self aggrandizement and greed as opposed to “sound science”.
Hucksters like Mann, Briffa, Osborn and Hansen have foisted this hoax on unsuspecting parishioners (like yourself).
Are you the least bit embarrassed that you’ve been so thoroughly duped?
This isn’t even humourous anymore…….the criminal courts should get very busy…..very soon.
Steve McIntyre uncovers another hockey stick trick
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/steve-mcintyre-uncovers-another-trick/
Max, These stories are once again coming from newspapers. George Orwell once made the remark ” Early in life I had noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper.” Possibly ‘no event’ is putting it too strongly. I’ve always said that they do make a reasonable job of football results and stock market prices etc, but whenever I known the inside story on any particular issue I have to say that Orwell is right.
If the Telegraph , Mail and Express can do it for Man Utd v Arsenal , why can’t they get it right on what the Royal Society say on global warming?
Max,
If there is a forcing factor applied to the Earth’s climate it could take hundreds of years for a new equilibrium to be found. So you’ll see both immediate and longer term changes. And longer term could mean hundreds of years, or more. The oceans’ total heat capacity is enormous and its only the upper surface layer that is being studied presently. Its very difficult to separate out the signal from the noise.
Maybe you’d be better reading something like: http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/10/06/how-much-warming-in-the-pipeline-part-1-co2-e/
Its not all down to that evil James Hansen as you can see.
Peter 3931 said;
“Its not all down to that evil James Hansen as you can see.’
Well actually it is-but drop the evil and insert misguided.
We are into a somewhat circular logic here basing a temperature on a pre industrial anomaly value of 0C from 1900. This came from Hansen in his 1988 paper whereby he believed he knew a global temperature from that date and on which everything then hinges.
See table 5 below (this is from one of the authors cited in your link)
http://stabilisation.metoffice.com/14_Malte_Meinshausen.pdf
Hansen had no concept of natural variability as he illustrated in his paper, ignoring the considerable warmth in the preceding decades in order to measure from the bottom of a temperature trough.
Temperatures have generally been rising since 1607 with some notable peaks around 1700-1740, the late 1700’s the mid 1800’s and other periods. In some areas they are currently around the temperatures (or slightly above) of the early 1700’s following this long obsereved gently warming trend. (Not all areas are warming as we have observed before)
You absolutely refuse to engage on global temperatures because it is at the heart of-and the greatst flaw of- this increasingly bizarre science.
Once again I will ask you if, for instance, you believe Sea surface temperatures back to 1860 to be an accurate reflection of global conditions to tenths of a degree?
Tonyb
Tonyb,
Hansen is a rigid, fanatic, ideologue (as is Peter Martin).
They cannot and will not deviate from their enviro-religious doctrine.
Aw. C’mon, Peter.
I’m asking you to explain in your own words how you think the Hansen “hidden in the pipeline” hypothesis is supported by empirical data, and you cite (3931) a blurb by Barry Brook on the bravenewclimate blogsite that simply parrots the Hansen canard.
If you read further down in the comments a blogger points out:
, is equivalent to How much ‘unrealised’ warming is in the oceans?.
To this the author concedes:
IOW we do not know how much heat is hidden in the pipeline, because we cannot measure it, but we can guess that it is 0.5C. Oops!
Then he tosses in the “aerosol masking” suggestion as “evidence” that “we should have experienced about 50% more atmospheric warming than we’ve actually seen, due to aerosol masking”. This has nothing to do with the “hidden in the pipeline” hypothesis, since the energy that is purportedly “masked” by “aerosols” has been reflected out to space and is gone, bye-bye, adios, so will not sneak back out of hiding to warm our atmosphere and fry us later. Ouch!
This is thin soup, Peter.
In addition, this stuff was written in 2005. Since then we have reports summarizing several years of reliable ARGO measurements, which tell us that the upper ocean is not warming, as postulated, but cooling instead, thereby providing empirical data to falsify Hansen’s “hidden in the pipeline” hypothesis.
http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3152
As I have requested earlier, tell me, Peter in your own words how you think the Hansen “hidden in the pipeline” hypothesis is supported by empirical data,
I’ve shown you specifically how this hypothesis is based on circular logic, questionable assumptions and bad arithmetic (3894).
I have also shown you how it has been falsified by empirical data based on physical observations (3893).
And that’s the best you can do?
Take a cue from Janice Joplin and “try a little bit harder”, Peter.
Max
PeterM
Just to give you an idea of what kind of a flaky doomsayer we are dealing with in Barry Brook, the bravenewclimate blogsite author who parroted the Hansen “hidden in the pipeline”canard, this is what he wrote further down in the comments:
“Humanity won’t be around in a civilized form” (after 750 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere)?
Ooooo! Scary!
Can’t you see what a fruitcake we are dealing with here, Peter?
(Or do you share his goofy ideas?)
Max
TonyB
The Meinshausen treatise “On the Risk of Overshooting 2°C”, which you cited (3932), does not present any new data.
It simply extrapolates the trend in atmospheric temperature using the IPCC model-assumed 2xCO2 climate sensitivity range and three scenarios for increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100 (and even as far as 2300!): 400, 450 and 550 ppmv.
“Overshooting 2°C” refers to a baseline year of 1900, and the record shows us we have already seen 0.7°C warming since then, so the title should have read: “On the Risk of Overshooting 1.3°C”.
I would then add in the climate sensitivity of 0.5°C, as recently observed from ERBE and CERES satellites in two separate studies by Spencer and Lindzen, as the low end of the range.
This would then give the range of estimates for 2100 in °C:
400 ppmv: 0.16 high end; 0.02 low end; 0.09 average, or 0.09°C±0.07°C
450 ppmv: 0.93 high end; 0.10 low end; 0.52 average, or 0.52°C+0.41°C
550 ppmv: 2.23 high end; 0.25 low end; 1.24 average, or 1.24°C±0.89°C
Yawn! This tells me that even if we use IPCC’s upper limit on climate sensitivity, we have nothing to worry about by 2100.
As you point out, Meinshausen ignores natural variability (an amazingly unscientific thing to do).
He also starts from a 110-year old baseline (a silly thing to do, since it gives a meaningless result, skewed to look more alarming).
He further ignores the low end of climate sensitivity as observed and reported by both Spencer and Lindzen (this is called “cherry-picking”).
And, finally, he carries his prediction out to year 2300 (this is downright outrageous, so I will not even attempt to comment on his assumed figures beyond 2100).
Just shows that if you start off with silly or exaggerated assumptions, you will end up with silly or exaggerated answers.
This is not a serious scientific study, even though the author comes from ETHZ, the Swiss national institute of technology in Zurich (I’m embarrassed to say).
Max
PeterM
Brute has stated that, in his opinion, “Hansen is a rigid, fanatic, ideologue”, who “cannot and will not deviate from [his] enviro-religious doctrine”. He put you into the same category – but let’s get back to Hansen.
Others have referred to Hansen as suffering from the “messiah complex”.
Wiki and Yahoo tell us
and
This is recognized as a individual psychological disorder or delusion, but it can even go further:
This description seems to fit for Al Gore, unless he is acting on pure selfish opportunism, which would make him a charlatan. This is what many observers suspect, in light of the financial gain he has been able to amass from his messiah-related activities and ventures. But let’s say he is an “opportunistic messiah”.
Aside from a few freebies he has enjoyed along the line, James E. Hansen appears to be a better example of a true messiah, who honestly believes that his doomsday warnings could save the planet. He may not be above bending his temperature record or the scientific facts in order to sell his message of impending doom, but it appears to me that he actually believes in his message and in his role as a savior of the planet.
So this would classify him not as an opportunistic charlatan, but as a delusional individual who truly suffers from the messiah complex.
What do you think, Peter?
Max
You say “Brute has stated that, in his opinion, ‘Hansen is a rigid, fanatic, ideologue,
Er well so does Glenn Beck. I’m just wondering if Brute would agree with this Beckism too?
“Al Gore’s not going to be rounding up Jews and exterminating them. It is the same tactic, however. The goal is different. The goal is globalization…And you must silence all dissenting voices. That’s what Hitler did. That’s what Al Gore, the U.N., and everybody on the global warming bandwagon [are doing].”
Marvellous stuff eh? And of course its all, as you say, motivated by genuine scientific doubts. Politics just doesn’t come into it. How could anyone possibly think that?
Oh dear Peter!
Carbon taxing greens routed in NSW Australia elections
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/coalition-romps-to-victory-in-nsw-20110326-1cbbt.html
Who is Glenn Beck?
American Prosperity Hour!
Hey Peter!
This year’s American Prosperity Hour here at the Brute Estate was marked with launching fireworks, bonfires and a massive feast!
We decided this year to expand to a full fledged all day romp where we left all 5 of our SUVs idling in the driveway (along with invited guests). I even fired up the diesel farm tractor!
Every modern appliance in the Brute estate was in full use. To increase the festivities I roasted half a pig over a charcoal fire this year!
I switched on the air conditioning in both wings of the main house (even though they’re calling for snow tonight/tomorrow…..this late in the year!……can you believe this global warming?)
Simultaneously we ran the gas fired heat and the wood fired heat stoves to celebrate the ingenuity of man and his ability to overcome the ravages of nature.
Gunfire, from various semi-automatic/automatic weapons punctuated the festivities as we set up a target range behind the barns.
The tree harvesting and log splitting contest was a big hit this year and I get free firewood labor ready to be put up and seasoned for next year out of it! We had three chain saws revving at one point with two 7 ton log splitters working feverishly.
I may have overdone things as the local airport asked us to tone things down……it appears that the massive candlepower emitted from the estate interfered with the jetliners ability to see the runways at the airport (15 miles away).
Wish you could have joined us. I announced that your Marxist/Global Warmist buddies had been slaughtered in the recent Australian elections which brought joyous cheers from the throngs of people in attendance.
It’s gonna be tough to outdo this year’s American Prosperity celebration……But, many of the guests have decided to invite additional friends’ relatives to next year’s shindig…
‘A Massacre’
Labor Ejected From Government in Australia’s NSW After 16 Years
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-26/labor-ejected-from-government-in-australia-s-nsw-after-16-years.html
Peter,
Maybe you can relocate to North Korea now? I hear that Kim Jong II is running a sucessful “green” economy there.
Australia’s Labor loses key state to conservatives
– Sat Mar 26, 6:36 am ET
Brute,
You mean you’ve never heard of Glenn Beck? He’s great. You’d love him. Just switch on to Fox TV. He doesn’t just do global warming:
“God hating, dolphin loving, gay liberal secularists, are building a secret army, funded by your tax dollars, to blow up more offshore oil rigs and blame it all on the oil companies – just like they did in the Gulf of Mexico. They are coming for us. We are all BP now!”
Brute
Wow! Sounds like your American Prosperity celebration was a great success.
We had a smaller scale festivity here in Switzerland on top of a nearby (snow covered) mountain.
There were dozens of snowmobiles carting people and supplies up to the top, with a big Swiss-style barbecue (steaks plus sausage specialties from each of the cantons) plus five raclette ovens and twelve fondue pots going full blast. Wines and spirits from all the regions in Switzerland were offered “à discrétion”. Snow-bunnies were hauled in by helicopters from such faraway places as Zurich and Geneva.
Twenty-six bonfires blazed away to symbolize the number of Swiss cantons.
Beside the alphorn music and yodeling, there was a William Tell contest, where fathers could shoot apples off their sons’ heads with traditional crossbows. The winners (all those that hit the apple) received John Deere 540 HP 4WD tractors as awards, losers were helicoptered to the local Kantonsspital.
Skiing and snowboarding contests were also held, with male winners each receiving a snow-bunny and female winners given the choice between a ski instructor and a bottle of wine.
Five door prizes were handed out: four Swiss brown cows and one bull. Winners were given the choice of receiving their prizes on the hoof or slaughtered and fully butchered.
The ministry of environment calculated the carbon footprint of the event. It had been expected to equal that of the city of Zurich for one month but, to everyone’s delight, it reached almost twice this level.
A good time was had by all.
Max
PeterM
I have heard the name “Glenn Beck”, but have never heard him. Isn’t he a US radio talk show host?
I seem to recall that he once interviewed British climate skeptic, Lord Monckton, but this interview was not broadcast here in Switzerland.
Is he popular in Australia?
Max
PS Hold on! I just Googled “Glenn Beck interview of Lord Monckton” and it popped up! Here is the link:
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/32085/
Enjoy!
BTW, Peter, it looks like you slipped off track (again), with the introduction of Glenn Beck. The question was whether or not you thought that James E. Hansen suffered from the “messiah complex”.
Whaddaya think?
Max
Brute
In the interest of wiping out obesity, “Dear Leader” Kim Jong Il has started a nation-wide calorie reduction plan, whereby all (non-governmental and non-military) citizens would revert to a 500 calorie per day diet, with children under 12 receiving half this amount. This is equivalent to three level bowls of rice per day for adults.
Energy conservation is also a high priority, and the “Dear Leader” is ensuring the nation’s low carbon footprint by issuing all families a maximum of 5 kilograms of coal per day for domestic heating and cooking.
The ministry of energy and environment proudly announced that by implementing these measures the nation would generate only one-seventh the amount of CO2 as its southern neighbor, despite the fact that its population was around half that of the south.
In recognition of his nation’s efforts to reduce global CO2 pollution and warming, the United Nations is planning to recommend Kim for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Peter’s kind of guy!
Max
Pete,
The quote you’ve referenced in #3944…….I’m having difficulty finding a source that anyone said this…….let alone someone named Beck.
Would you please provide a (credible) source for this quote?
Forty Years of Drama Queen Scientists
http://antigreen.blogspot.com/2010/12/forty-years-of-drama-queen-scientists.html