A post by Steve Milloy of Junkscience has turned up some interesting figures about the ‘Population Bomb’. Here they are:
Per capita global food production has […] increased by 26.5 percent between 1968 and 2005, according to the World Resources Institute. The number of people who starve to death daily declined from 41,000 in 1977 to 24,000 today, according to The Hunger Project, an organization combating global hunger
http://junkscience.com/ByTheJunkman/2008082108.html
If you multiply 24,000 by the number of days in a year, this works out at about 8.7 million deaths from starvation per annum; a million more than the whole population of Greater London.
Later in his article, Milloy mentions that:
According to U.N. statistics, the number of people in the developing world who were considered to be undernourished in 1968 was estimated at about 900 million. That estimate is on track to be reduced by more than 50 per cent by 2015, according to the U.N.
The United Nations is an organisation that loves to take credit for any improvement in the human condition, and it has no shame about self-administered pats on the back. But looking more closely at these figures, we find some rather nasty facts that we should all be ashamed about.
If the number of undernourished people in the developing world has almost halved in the last forty years, that still leaves nearly 450 million people today – almost half a billion out of a global population of about 6 billion – who do not get enough to eat. And of course malnutrition increases mortality rates from numerous causes other than starvation.
The downward trend is encouraging, but it should not be used to disguise the fact that in the first decade of the 21st century, more than one in 13 of the world’s population are deprived of the most fundamental necessity of existence; they are not getting enough to eat.
If these figures applied equally to both the first world and the developing world, then what would the reaction of European and North American governments – and the electorates that have voted them into office – be? Just imagine what our priorities would be if 13 out of every 100 people in the UK were undernourished? What would the headlines in the media say?
At the moment there is much hand-ringing among world leaders about the ‘world food crisis’,which has been caused, in part at least, by demand for biofuels. And until quite recently, biofuels were hailed as one of the alternative sources of energy that could stop climate change. The organisation that has done more than any other to spread alarm about possible global warming is, of course, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN agency.
I only saw the starvation and malnutrition figures because I happened to get an email notification about Steve Milloy’s article. So far as I know the press and the rest of the mass media made nothing of the story. Contrast this lack of reaction with the following, which comes from a lead story in the Washington Post in 2005:
Climate Shift Tied To 150,000 Fatalities
Most Victims Are Poor, Study Says
By Juliet Eilperin
Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year, according to the World Health Organization, [another UN agency] a toll that could double by 2030.
The data, being published today in the journal Nature, indicate that climate change is driving up rates of malaria, malnutrition and diarrhea throughout the world.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602197.html
Not surprisingly, this story was the subject of worldwide headlines within hours, and the mantra ‘climate change is killing 150,000 people a year’ has remained popular with global warming advocates ever since.
Whether or not the small rise in global temperatures that we saw during the 20th century was caused by human activity, and can therefor be controlled, has yet to be decided. What is certain is that it is well within our capabilities to make sure that people get enough to eat, provided that the political will exists to give this matter priority.
I have no opinion on the validity of the WHO’s research, which was carried out by the University of Wisconsin; it is the public attitude that interests me. The figure for supposed climate change induced deaths is one-three-thousandth of that for malnutrition. There is a body of research that shows that mortality anomalies are higher when temperatures fall than when they rise, and it is common ground that natural variation in temperature has always been a characteristic of Earth’s climate. One thing that we can be sure of is that global temperatures are not, and never have been, constant. There will always be a trend either up or down, and there will always be some people who suffer as a result.
Many climate change sceptics consider that the present concerns about global warming now amount to hysteria, and our assessment of the scientific evidence is no longer rational. If this is the case, then millions in the developing world are going hungry unnecessarily while the eyes of the first world are focused on efforts to control the climate.
This kind of hysteria kills.
Below is the link to the WSJ article by Bjorn Lomborg
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121720170185288445.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Max
Max,
In posting # 14 you say ” it is absolutely certain that AGW had nothing to do with it [Victorian fires]”. But, by posting # 24 you’ve softened that to “that is also why it is unlikely that the all-time record high local temperature at Melbourne has nothing to do with global warming or human CO2 emissions.”
So which is it? “Absolutely certain” or just “unlikely”?
I notice that you’ve singled out Prof Phil Jones for a mention. Do you think he’s part of the great conspiracy (hoax, scam whatever else you’ve called it)?
Or maybe you feel that he’s somewhat lacking in intellectual capacity and he’s something of a lightweight who just can’t understand it all?
Although, he looks to me to be a pretty smart guy.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/pjones/
who’s done well in his chosen field.
What’s the motivation for your attack? Why the accusation that he’s “removed from reality”
He was very sensibly trying to explain that there is no real cooling after 1998. As I showed in a recent post there was only one year (2008) which showed a data point below the 30 year trend line.
One data point! I would suggest that it is you who are removed from reality.
Hi Peter,
You posted this #27:
“In posting # 14 you say, ” it is absolutely certain that AGW had nothing to do with it [Victorian fires]”. But, by posting # 24 you’ve softened that to “that is also why it is unlikely that the all-time record high local temperature at Melbourne has nothing to do with global warming or human CO2 emissions.”
The first statement (#14) has to do with AGW as a cause for Victorian fires. Here I stated, “it is absolutely certain that AGW had nothing to do with it [Victorian fires]”. I will stick with this statement.
The second statement (#24) had to do with global warming or human CO2 emissions having anything to do with record high local temperature at Melbourne, which I stated to be “unlikely”. I will also stick with this statement.
So when you ask, “So which is it? “Absolutely certain” or just “unlikely”?
I would say, “it is absolutely certain that AGW had nothing to do with the Victorian fires”.
And ”it is unlikely that the all-time record high local temperature at Melbourne has anything to do with global warming or human CO2 emissions”.
No “softening of position here”, Peter. Just two different statements involving two different things.
Your next line was, “I notice that you’ve singled out Prof Phil Jones for a mention. Do you think he’s part of the great conspiracy (hoax, scam whatever else you’ve called it)?
Or maybe you feel that he’s somewhat lacking in intellectual capacity and he’s something of a lightweight who just can’t understand it all?
Although, he looks to me to be a pretty smart guy who’s done well in his chosen field.”
Jones may be a very intelligent guy, but he unfortunately made some rather silly statements about the temperature record, in defending his erroneous forecasts by explaining that external factors (ENSO) caused them to be wrong.
No “great conspiracy (hoax, scam)” is required. Jones is trying to sell the world an alarming AGW story, which just doesn’t happen to be occurring in real life at this time, so he resorts to the classical “my forecast was correct, except for…” line. The forecast went up; the temperature went down. To say, “well this was because of ENSO changes (which he did not foresee)” is a dumb cop-out. It just underscores how totally absurd the Hadley (i.e. Jones) predictions really are.
Now to your next statement, “What’s the motivation for your attack? Why the accusation that he’s “removed from reality”. He was very sensibly trying to explain that there is no real cooling after 1998.
There was no “attack”, Peter. Jones was, indeed, “removed from reality”, when he said “there is no real cooling after 1998”. All you have to do, Peter, to confirm this is to look at Jones’ own “manipulated, adjusted, corrected and massaged” Hadley record. It has cooled (at least since 2001), which is clearly visible from the trend. To deny this is to deny “reality”.
Peter, I would really suggest that you get your facts straight before shooting off a post like your #27. Otherwise it makes you look silly.
Regards,
Max
My Country
By Dorothea Mackellar. (Circa 1904)
The love of field and coppice, of green and shaded lanes,
Of ordered woods and gardens is running in your veins.
Strong love of grey-blue distance, brown streams and soft, dim skies-
I know but cannot share it, my love is otherwise.
I love a sunburnt country, a land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges, of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons, I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror- the wide brown land for me!
The stark white ring-barked forests, all tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains, the hot gold hush of noon,
Green tangle of the brushes where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops, and ferns the warm dark soil.
Core of my heart, my country! Her pitiless blue sky,
When, sick at heart, around us we see the cattle die –
But then the grey clouds gather, and we can bless again
The drumming of an army, the steady soaking rain.
Core of my heart, my country! Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine she pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks, watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness that thickens as we gaze.
An opal-hearted country, a wilful, lavish land –
All you who have not loved her, you will not understand –
Though earth holds many splendours, wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country my homing thoughts will fly.
There is an interesting interview (BBC4, Today, 10/02/2009) with Germaine Greer and a planning expert about the bush fires here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7880000/7880680.stm
If even a fraction of what she says is correct, then there will be plenty of officials and politicians blaming this tragedy on AGW as an attractive alternative to facing up to their own share of responsibility. It’s beginning to sound like a re-run of Hurricane Katrina, as Robin suggested.
Bob_FJ: A good point, well made. Thanks.
Bob FJ
Lovely poem. This is not a poet I am familiar with, this is her web site.
http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/about.asp
Your point is well made-Australia has savage contrasts and drought is a way of life- not an unusual occurence to be blamed solely on man. Bearing in mind these savage contrasts I wonder just how many more people Australia can absorb without severely compromising the very virtues that drew people there in the first place.
TonyB
TonyN: Germaine Greer’s BBC interview (#30) is interesting. But she seems to go much further than my comment at #18 (that managed burning might have been sensible) in indicating (if I heard her correctly) that there was little that could be done to eliminate an inevitable build-up of explosive materials in some of these areas. Bob and Peter: might she be right?
I look forward to the conclusions of the Royal Commission.
Bob: Dorothea Mackellar’s poem is a timely lesson for those of us who are used to a northern European environment. Thanks.
Robin #32
Speaking of the BBC I once suggested to them that they might like to run a programme called ‘Did co2 kill the planet?’
It would have a court room type scenario with the protagonists on either side being represented by a barrister. The various witnesses awould have to give their most compelling evidece and would be subject to cross examination.
Three judges would preside and would have to give a majority decision. It would be cheap, informative, and would sell round the world. I think it would also be the first time that both sides would have squared up to each other in a controlled environment. The standards of evidence would be the same as in a court of law.
I think someone mentioned you were a barrister? Which side do you think would present the most compelling evidence? (assuming that circumstantial evidence and theories are not admissable)
TonyB
Victorian bushfires:
I’ll come back on some other issues above, but meanwhile, here is a quick cut and paste from a long list of the more major bushfires (and grassfires) in Victoria since 1850.
That of 1969 is of memory to me because I was driven along that straight 4-lane highway to take-up my new job in Geelong, right-off the plane from England, just weeks after that grassfire.
Some of these fires extended into other States, but only the Victorian info is shown.
1851 – 6 February ‘Black Thursday’
Fires covered a quarter of what is now Victoria (approximately 5 million hectares). Areas affected include Portland, Plenty Ranges, Westernport, the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. Approximately 12 lives, one million sheep and thousands of cattle were lost.
1983 – 16 February ‘Ash Wednesday’
Australia’s most well-known bushfire event. Over 100 fires in Victoria burnt 210,000 hectares and caused forty seven fatalities. More than 27,000 stock and 2,000 houses were lost. Areas severely affected included Monivae, Branxholme, East Trentham, Mt Macedon, the Otway Ranges, Warburton, Belgrave Heights, Cockatoo, Beaconsfield Upper and Framlingham (see also Ash Wednesday
1969 – 8 January
280 fires broke out on the 8th of January 1969. Of these, 12 grass fires reached major proportions and burnt 250,000 hectares. Areas seriously affected included Lara, Daylesford, Dulgana, Yea, Darraweit, Kangaroo Flat and Korongvale. Twenty-three people died, including 17 motorists at Lara, trapped on the Geelong to Melbourne freeway. The fires also destroyed 230 houses, 21 other buildings and more than 12,000 stock.
1983 – 16 February ‘Ash Wednesday’
Australia’s most well-known bushfire event. Over 100 fires in Victoria burnt 210,000 hectares and caused forty seven fatalities. More than 27,000 stock and 2,000 houses were lost. Areas severely affected included Monivae, Branxholme, East Trentham, Mt Macedon, the Otway Ranges, Warburton, Belgrave Heights, Cockatoo, Beaconsfield Upper and Framlingham (see also Ash Wednesday
2003 – Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
Eighty seven fires were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 “Black Friday” bushfires. Burning for 59 days before being contained, the Alpine fires burnt over 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes and over 9,000 livestock, with thousands of kilometres of fencing also being destroyed. Areas affected include Mt Buffalo, Bright, Dinner Plain, Benambra and Omeo.
Re: #32, Robin
This post, and a previous one, at Bishop Hill’s excellent blog seems to confirm much that Germaine Greer was saying;
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2009/2/11/nillumbik-residents-turn-on-their-representatives.html
The fire risk was, apparently, aggravated by officialdom preventing common sense land management. Germaine Greer also mentions that some of the fires broke out in a national park where precautionary burning had not been undertaken, presumably on the grounds of conservation. Indeed such an area would no doubt have an active fire prevention policy inevitably leading to an exceptional buildup of underbrush and ever increasing risk of a catastrophic fire.
Max and TonyB
I’ve moved your last two comments to the NS thread which is where they clearly belong.
I’m going to ramble; on bushfire + AGW politics and stuff:
1) When the 3-day heatwave hit Melbourne at the end of January, there were a lot of asinine comments connecting it to AGW. For instance our great federal minister of that stuff; Penny Wong made that connection, but I suspect that 18 months (?) ago, when she was not “the authority“, that she could not even spell anthropogenic!
2) When various authorities and that “qualified climate scientist” Joe Romm at Gristmill made the AGW connection to serious infrastructure failures in Melbourne, they overlooked the fact that Adelaide’s heatwave was much worse both in temperature and duration, and yet they did not have such failures. (For instance, Melbourne train services collapsed in a big way because of buckled rail-lines. It turned out that since Melbourne rail was privatised, the scheduled program of replacing old rotten timber railway sleepers had fallen badly behind…. Even red-gum is inferior long-term to concrete!)
3) Speaking about Adelaide, which although much hotter, was very quiet on the bushfire front, how about this sparkling gem:
Atmospheric scientist Warwick Grace… …South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) Climate Applications Unit claims:
“Adelaide, with 15 days over 35 degrees, returns a one in 3,000 year event.”… [blah blah blah] …The all-time national heatwave record was set in Marble Bar in northern Western Australia, which had 160 consecutive days at or above 37.8 degrees celsius (or 100 degrees fahrenheit) in the summer of 1923-24.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/adelaide-heatwave-one-in-3000-years-20080318-2034.html
4) One of my favourite towns only ~75 to 90 minutes away in my camper-van, (cruising); winter base-camp for the Lake Mountain XC ski resort, and holiday destination for Melburnites to escape summer heat is apparently no more. It is still closed-off as a crime-scene. It has (had) magnificent forest walks and waterfalls, and scenic lookouts. Fortunately, most of it’s inhabitants appear to have escaped, via a good road in the right direction. Marysville was also one of my favourite places for “Sunday lunch”
5) Nearby my beloved Marysville, there are (were?) some groves of the largest hardwood trees in the world. (Eucalyptus Regnans, or Mountain Ash). They are awesome, and challenge the Californian redwoods. Unfortunately this eucalyptus, one of about 600 species, is unique (reportedly) in having no resistance to wildfire. There was a tragic case of Tasmanian Forestry killing the biggest giant a few years ago during a “controlled” burn-off, that was intended to reduce fire risk. I intend to post some magnificent photos of E. Regnans new growth forest from the massive 1.4 million hectare fire back in 1939 sometime, just to show that not all is lost to future generations.
6) Kinglake (and Kinglake West) was tragic. Atop the Kinglake Ranges, some ~30+ minutes north of me, is almost on an escarpment, with difficult very narrow windy and dangerous roads climbing up it with sheer drop-offs to the side. Only one of them is sealed. There is a good east-west road along the top, but apparently this was roughly parallel with the fire-front. I saw video scenes of cars all piled-up on that road, and burnt-out. Kinglake and it’s National Park and en route to Toolangi etc, is another favourite of mine
7) Prior to this wildfire (7 Feb) there were other fires on the go in Victoria NSW and S.A, but without strong winds. There were announcements that the conditions on that Saturday were predicted to be worse than the very tragic fires in Victoria and S.A. back in 1983. (75 killed and 2000+ homes destroyed and more).
People were advised (5-6 Feb) to the effect; You must decide whether to stay and defend your assets, OR, you must leave in plenty of time, before the fire gets there. Boy, that is quite a matter of judgement eh…. All your belongings and home or business or livestock whatever at stake, and how quick-bad will it be?????
8) The situation is that despite all the tragic history of bush and grass fires, no one seems to be aware. For instance, I have seen video of people hosing and beating-out flames wearing just shorts and shoes. (Radiant heat from flames at over 1,000 degrees C; Wot’s that?) One young lady decided to run from her burning house but did not have time to put shoes on and suffered badly burnt feet!
9) Last night I was half listening to an expert on radio from an Oz university, before I pricked-up with, (paraphrasing): Staying to defend your house is OK because it only takes about 15 minutes for the flame front to pass. [Uh? No mention of wind speed or anything thought I]. Then he continued: So, if your house does catch fire, [despite your measures], just hang around as long as you can, and then make a dash for it, by which time the fire-front will have passed, and it will be OK, providing you have a plan and have cleared sustaining incendiaries such as sheds or log piles whatever around your escape route. [And have predicted the correct direction to escape through the smoke etc]. This was after helicopter videos show whole townships totally burnt down! This expert deprecated the idea of dugout protection, because of the possibility of asphyxiation or toxic gasification.
10) I think I’ll end with one question led mainly by Robin I think: Has anything been learnt from the long history of wildfires in Oz?
The Victorian bushfires in 1939 were comparatively massive, and one of the lessons learnt was that low-tech dug-outs saved very many lives, providing that they not only protected the occupants from killer radiant heat, but also ensured no penetration of toxic gases. There were big losses of life where there were no dugouts or the latter issue was not covered. The Royal Commission that followed recommended the simple use of dugouts to save human life in all fire-prone areas. How many lives have been saved since in dugouts? I have not seen any evidence of it!
In 1969, 17 people died in their cars, or running from their cars, on a straight four-lane highway, from a grass fire near me. Was anything learnt? I don’t think so!
I’d better stop there.
When I read again Dorothea Mackellar’s poem, in context, I didn’t just cry, I sobbed convulsively.
Re a MSM “trial” see my post here.
Sorry, Tony, I didn’t notice that you had moved Max & TonyB’s “trial” posts to the NS thread. Ignore my #38.
Bob_FJ
Don’t forget the pics of the E. Regnans.
Max and Peter Martin have exchanged views on whether the recent tragic wildfires in Victoria have any connection with global warming. Also, whether the recent very high temperatures in the SE region have any such connection. Yesterday, I compiled the following graphic of temperature anomalies, (Per Oz BOM, relative to 1969-1990 average), which I feel should help clarify the issue. Here are some relevant points:
1) In 1939 the Melbourne max temperature was recorded at 45.6C (BTW, Adelaide was 46.1C in 1939) compared with recently at 46.4. One question is: are we comparing apples with apples… See 2) UHI effect, or even if the Melbourne temperature is all that relevant to the mountain areas where most of the severe bushfires occur.
2) (Quoting): Victoria’s population is drawn from some 160 different nationalities and number around 4.7 million people. Of this state total, Melbourne’s population is about 3.8 million people.
I can’t find a population number for the 1930’s, but Melbourne exploded by about 1 million Greek and Italian immigrants alone, shortly after WW2, and more recently with changed immigration policy, Asians now comprise over 16% of the Melbourne population.
Back in 1861, Melbourne’s population reached 125,000. In recent years its growth exponentially exceeded Sydney, and in not many years Melbourne is expected to be bigger than Sydney
3) I argue that the SE temperatures reached in both 1939, (See 1), and recently are exceptionally abnormal, and are nothing to do with AGW. It may also be that there is a UHI effect in the recent numbers for the city, which was much smaller, and of lower density and energy consumption back in 1939.
4) The HOT anomalies of up to and over 12C, are truly massive compared to the global land anomalies as published by Hadley and GISS. There is no rationale that I’m aware of that can make a connection to AGW!
5) At the same time as the hot anomalies there were cold anomalies up to and over 12C, and just by eyeballing it would seem that the average max temperatures of the entire continent seem to have remained somewhat stable.
6) A logical explanation of why there is a regional variation in distribution, is very simple: It is a matter of wind direction. (This can be seen in the harsh weather recently in USA, associated with cold winds from up north) In Australia, the central desert regions are very hot, and northerly winds from that area heats the south. However, when a weather front crosses from the west, the wind direction reverses, and if the wind is strong, temperatures can drop in minutes some 20 or even 30 degrees C! (as it did on 7 Feb in Melbourne)
7) In that latter situation, wildfire risk is heightened, (even though cooler) because the diminished flanks of fires may turn into a new strong front, more so in mountainous areas with directional wind swirl and gusting.
8) The sustained period of heat prior to 7 Feb, per se on the graphs, would seem to suggest much greater risk, but it was a slow moving high pressure system with low wind speeds, and the fires that existed then were relatively benign.
9) There were strong winds on 7 Feb, and a common radio warning was: The following communities… … should be alert to ember attack. This is also known as “spotting”, where embers are blown ahead of the main front and start new fires. Another effect of wind is the compound effect of the flames leaning forward and superheating the fuel ahead of the front, so wind is the big factor, once fires start by lightning or arson whatever.
10) Concerning the alleged heightened risk of very high danger with very high ambient temperature, I would say that this is over-played, other than in it gets very tough for the fire-fighters themselves. Once lightning or arsonists have done their work, I find the idea of a few degrees C having much contribution to flames burning and superheating fuel ahead at over 1,000C, a touch trivial.
BTW: Temperatures have since been below average, and winds relatively modest, and it is only this morning that authorities are saying things are currently under control. (some threats removed or on hold to townships). Some significant rains overnight helped too.
Bob_FJ,
You are right that the recent temperatures in Melbourne were exceptionally abnormal. Last time I was there , in November, I was surprised at the coldness.
They’ve been exceptionally abnormal before, and they’ll be exceptionally abnormal again, but as average temperatures increase, the degree of abnormality will inevitably diminish.
It is interesting to look at the Australian BOM website for trends over the past 40 years for all land areas including Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/g_trendmaps.cgi?variable=global_t®ion=global&season=0112&period=1970
These show that the interior of Australia, like many other land areas far from the sea, has warmed by much more than the global average. In central Australia by about 0.5 deg C per decade which would mean that these areas now are a couple of degrees hotter than 40 years ago. The white areas on the map have insufficient data so we can’t say for sure exactly how big an area; but, when the weather systems from these regions move towards Melbourne or Adelaide in future years it is likely that recent records will themselves be broken sooner rather than later.
Whether or not these high temperatures will lead to further loss of life through bushfires, will of course rely on many factors: Forest management, levels of arson, early warning systems etc.
A better map of Australian average temperature changes:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi?variable=tmean®ion=aus&season=0112&period=1970
I guess it was just a matter of time, but Joseph Romm, a (qualified climate scientist) has a new rant at Gristmill entitled:
What’s climate got to do with it?
Continuing his satire in the title, his first comment is:
He goes-on with stuff he disapproves of and stuff that he likes, such as:
The AP story in the Washington Post ends lamely:
Contrast that to AFP, which leads their story with:
Dear ol’ Joe, bless his soul; I’m about to make some more posts there. Anyone rationally interested, please assist.
Re my 44,
Don’t know what happened there! The link to Gristmill is:
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/2/10/14180/3852
Further my 44, I thought I’d advise Romm et al some history of wildfires in Victoria, by copying my 34 above, but in the process noticed that my mouse must have been naughty when I was cutting and pasting from the original list. Here it is revised with some additional points added.
Australian bushfires near Melbourne:
I’ll come back on some other issues above, but meanwhile, here is a quick cut and paste from a rather long list of the more major bushfires (and grassfires) in my state since 1850.
That of 1969 is by no means massive, but is unique and of memory to me because I was driven along that straight 4-lane highway during a heatwave, to take-up my new job in Geelong, right-off the plane from snow-bound South England, just weeks after that grassfire.
Some of these historical fires extended into other States, and other states have had their own separate major fires. Only the Victorian info is shown here.
The current tragic fire near me is actually modest in scope, (historically), but it had some bad hits on some towns with especially disastrous circumstances.
1851 – 6 February `Black Thursday’
Fires covered a quarter of what is now Victoria (approximately 5 million hectares). Areas affected include Portland, Plenty Ranges, Westernport, the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. Approximately 12 lives, one million sheep and thousands of cattle were lost.
1939 – 13 January ‘Black Friday’
From December 1938 to January 1939, fires burnt 1.5 to 2 million hectares, including 800,000 hectares of protected forest, 600,000 hectares of reserved forest and 4,000 hectares of plantations. The fire severity peaked on Friday January 13 – “Black Friday”. The fires caused seventy one fatalities and destroyed more than 650 buildings and the township of Narbethong. The findings of the Royal Commission that was held following the fires were highly significant in increasing fire awareness and prevention throughout Australia. [except that the most important recommendation of fire dug-outs (shelters) to save human life was as far as I can tell, not adopted]
1969 – 8 January
280 fires broke out on the 8th of January 1969. Of these, 12 grass fires reached major proportions and burnt 250,000 hectares. Areas seriously affected included Lara, Daylesford, Dulgana, Yea, Darraweit, Kangaroo Flat and Korongvale. Twenty-three people died, including 17 motorists at Lara, trapped on the Geelong to Melbourne freeway. The fires also destroyed 230 houses, 21 other buildings and more than 12,000 stock.
1983 – 16 February `Ash Wednesday’
Australia’s most well-known bushfire event. Over 100 fires in Victoria burnt 210,000 hectares and caused forty seven fatalities. More than 27,000 stock and 2,000 houses were lost. Areas severely affected included Monivae, Branxholme, East Trentham, Mt Macedon, the Otway Ranges, Warburton, Belgrave Heights, Cockatoo, Beaconsfield Upper and Framlingham (see also Ash Wednesday
2003 – Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
Eighty seven fires were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 “Black Friday” bushfires. Burning for 59 days before being contained, the Alpine fires burnt over 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes and over 9,000 livestock, with thousands of kilometres of fencing also being destroyed.
BTW, some may remember that the massive Victorian bushfires of 2003 were associated with those in NSW and the Capital Territory, but 1983 was actually much worse in terms of asset loss north of the border:
TonyN Remy 44,
You see how the whole text became linked and underlined for the URL, rather than just the URL target NAME?
It almost happened again in my 46 but I noticed that the automated link tags had no space between the “angle brackets” before and after the NAME. when I inserted a space each side it was then OK.
Thanks to several here for your responses to that wonderful poem by Dorothea Mackellar that made me cry in the recent perspective.
Her poem has, OBVIOUSLY, some great historic/scientific relevance what with reference to dreadful drought and floods and stock losses and whatnot, poeticised from a wonderful observer circa 1904, in the time of horse-drawn transport. (Peter Martin, don’t you dare suggest that it is merely anecdotal nonsense, or I will start to get really cross with you!)
Thanks too TonyN, for your interest in the most magnificent tree species that I have seen. (and yes I’ve spent a lot of time in Northern California, and various rainforests)
Here is an extract from a “ Parks Victoria Fact Sheet ” that may interest you.
I’ll come back sometime with some pics of regrowth, but it is not possible to take meaningful photo’s of the old giants, and I can even feel “dizzy” looking up at them.
TonyN, Further my 47, ditto for 48. I had to add a space before/after the tag “less than”/”more than” tag or NAME closures
Bob_FJ,
I took you up on your invitation to post at Gristmill. I hope it met with your approval:-)
I can understand why Joe is somewhat frustrated by the lack of scientific comment, in his home country, on the recent events in Australia. Fortunately for us in Australia and the UK we have the ABC and the BBC , (and the Australian BOM and the UK Hadley centre too) , to give us the factual information which is so relevant to a proper understanding of what is happening to our climate.
TonyN is very lucky that the BBC is publicly owned. He doesn’t seem to dare raise his voice in objection to anything that Mr Murdoch, or his hirelings, write or say in the Sun or Fox news but he’s well happy to rant away about the editorial policy of the BBC. So he should too. I’m not criticising for that.
And it is our climate. It isn’t owned by some US based multinational. No-one should be surprised that they may feel that it is though, and that it isn’t any of our business that parts of Australia are becoming increasingly uninhabitable. Naturally they don’t want to tell us that.