This is a continuation of a remarkable thread that has now received 10,000 comments running to well over a million words. Unfortunately its size has become a problem and this is the reason for the move.
The history of the New Statesman thread goes back to December 2007 when Dr David Whitehouse wrote a very influential article for that publication posing the question Has Global Warming Stopped? Later, Mark Lynas, the magazine’s environment correspondent, wrote a furious reply, Has Global Warming Really Stopped?
By the time the New Statesman closed the blogs associated with these articles they had received just over 3000 comments, many from people who had become regular contributors to a wide-ranging discussion of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change, its implications for public policy and the economy. At that stage I provided a new home for the discussion at Harmless Sky.
Comments are now closed on the old thread. If you want to refer to comments there then it is easy to do so by left-clicking on the comment number, selecting ‘Copy Link Location’ and then setting up a link in the normal way.
Here’s to the next 10,000 comments.
Useful links:
Dr David Whitehouse’s article can be found here with 1289 comments.
Mark Lynas’ attempted refutation can be found here with 1715 comments.
The original Continuation of the New Statesman Whitehouse/Lynas blogs thread is here with 10,000 comments.
Brute,
Further my 3249, here is a gloomy Oz ABC discussion about continuing drought after good rains back in May 2010. The leading public oracle in the BOM, David Jones, has a lot to say about continuing drought, despite the good rains, but no mention of floods. How are policy makers expected to react to this sort of stuff I wonder!
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2895424.htm
Yes Bob,
The “greens” and global Warmists have blood on their hands as well as untold billions of dollars in damages that they are directly responsible for causing.
The primary focus was not on flood control but alleviating illusionary (naturally occurring) “drought”. Coupled with bumbling government bureaucrats and handwringing environmentalists overcome with emotion surrounding a minnow, these criminals are guilty of negligent homicide.
The brainwashed politicians and policy makers were indoctrinated into the cult of global warming as they gazed into their theoretical models (crystal balls) and proclaimed unceasing drought all the while ignoring the historical floods of years past.
Now, real people are really dead and these soulless “environmentalists” and hack politicians continue to push their fraudulent theory.
Brute,
I don’t normally resort to such language but in your case I have have no hesitation in calling you a lying bastard.
The same goes for people like Christopher Booker too. You’re just trying to score cheap political points out of a difficult situation.
Brute,
This is what the Oz ABC had to say on Tuesday 11, January about the Brisbane floods.
So when did the Wivenhoe dam levels rise and fall per the reference from your Queensland friend???
*Thursday, 6/Jan @ 6:30 am…… 103.2% full and start rapid rise
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dire predictions reported by ABC 11/Jan.
*Wednesday, 12/Jan @ 9:00 am…… 188.5% full and start rapid emptying
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Just in time to support the peak level in Brisbane on 14/Jan?
*Wed, 19/Jan @ 8:40 am…… 99.1% full
Ho hum, experts at work again
I’d write that I’m shocked Pete; however, I’m not surprised……….you’ve lost the debate and now resort to name calling.
Will you stomp your feet and hold your breath next?
How childish……..(and typical).
What a surprise!……….Here’s a report that details how local government officials buried a report that warned of building on floodplains………..a cover-up so as not to dissuade people from building homes on unsuitable lands in order to increase local taxes to government coffers.
This and the global warmist politician that refused to relieve the water pressure on the dam due to their global warming beliefs, the focus on “drought mitigation” based on failed climate models as opposed to flood control and you’ve got a real criminal circus of incompetence, corruption and fraud.
Alarming report on Brisbane River risks covered up
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/alarming-report-on-risks-covered-up/story-e6frg6nf-1225986634328
This is what was said in 2006, in the middle of the drought.
“…….. it is expected that El Niño droughts will be hotter, and La Niña rains heavier. Cyclones may increase in intensity and spread further south, while it is also likely that fire regimes will also change, although to what extent is unknown”.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2006/07/06/2041907.htm
Brute,
If you want to be shocked I can do quite a bit better than that. You certainly deserve to be sufficiently shocked to get some sense into that head of yours.
The advice of the scientific community has always been correct on the risks of both droughts and . However, the simple facts of the matter are that all politicians , of all political parties, have given the green light to inappropriate development over the years.
Scientists can only give advice. They can’t make the policy too.
Wrong Pete………this is what “scientists were saying in 2006 and based on what “scientists” and the Alarmists were saying….followed government’s (deadly) policies.
Australia’s drought may stay for keeps
Friday, 15 December 2006
And this is what “they” said in 2007……and government agencies prepared for drought, not floods……ignoring historical precipitation records based on their cultish devotion to the global warming/”climate change”/”climate disruption” racket………
”They” failed to model flooding rainfalls and people suffered because of it.
The big dry: prolonged drought threatens Australia’s people, wildlife, and economyScience News, Oct 27, 2007
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1200/is_17_172/ai_n27453049/
Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management
A general increase in drought frequency associated with global warming was demonstrated by both indices for both climate models, except for the western part of Australia. Increases in the frequency of soil-moisture-based droughts are greater than increases in meteorological drought frequency. By 2030, soil-moisture-based drought frequency increases 20–40% over most of Australia with respect to 1975–2004 and up to 80% over the Indian Ocean and southeast coast catchments by 2070. Such increases in drought frequency would have major implications for natural resource management, water security planning, water demand management strategies, and drought relief payments. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
Leading environmentalist Professor Tim Flannery has warned that Australia is now entering long-term climate change, which could cause longer and more frequent droughts.
He also predicts that the ongoing drought could leave Sydney’s dams dry in just two years.
Professor Flannery, who is the director of the South Australian Museum, has told ABC TV’s Lateline that global warming is threatening Australia’s chance of returning to a regular rainfall pattern.
“Three major phenomena are depriving Australia of its rainfall,” he said.
Saturday, June 11, 2005
Brute,
Who are these “Some Australian experts” ? And where does your block quote come from anyway?
Look. Just get into into your thick head that the scientific advice on climate change is now, and always has been, that heat is a form of energy and more energy will lead to a more dynamic climate system with a greater range of climatic conditions. So, yes, drier droughts. But also wetter floods too. Give me one credible scientific reference which says that floods are or will no longer be a problem in Australia.
You can’t because none exist.
http://www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.html
“The report indicates that although there will be more dry days, when it does rain, rainfall is likely to be more intense.”
CSIRO 2007
Brute,
Quite apart from the inherent warnings contained in the Oz BOM rainfall records, I don’t remember seeing or hearing the oracle David Jones of the BOM, or Flannery of the Gaia god, or anyone warning; watchout for this still developing strong La Nina. Neither did the keepers of the Wivenhoe Dam apparently notice that we are in the monsoon season and that monsoonal troughs are easily capable of reaching Brisbane and further south, and are clearly strongly volatile as shown in the BOM records.
La Nina weather pattern as strong as the 1974 version (12/Jan. 2010 report)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/la-nina-weather-pattern-as-strong-as-the-1974-version/story-e6frg6xf-1225985877914
Bob_FJ,
There is no evidence that the operators of the dam have done anything other than operate it by the book.
You’ve got 2million ML of capacity in the dam. You can have zero for floods and 2 million ML for water supply. Or, you can have it the other way around. Or you can have it in the middle as its always been intended even before AGW became an issue.
Yes, any fool can be wise after the event and plenty are trying to be just that.
IPCC Prediction for Queensland: less rainfall, longer droughts, drier climate.
Bad science destroys Queensland. Who’s next?
January 18th, 2011
http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Bad-science-destroys-Queensland-Whos-next-660#
Hmmmm……record low temperature set this morning.
This seems rather curious as “scientists” tell us that the planet is getting warmer which would mean that record low temperatures would no longer be achieved as the planet warms.
The thermometer must be wrong……..or it is in the employ of “big oil”.
New record cold temperatures in Minnesota
From NWS Duluth, MN, an old record beaten by five degrees:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
518 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2011
…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN…
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -46 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -41 SET IN 1954.
Brute,
I suppose I should be used to you prattling on about things you know nothing about by now, and you clearly haven’t made an exception for either Queensland or Australia.
Firstly the local politicians in Qld don’t have any direct control over the operation of dam levels. There’s obviously a trade-off between having a high level in a dam for water supply purposes and a low level for flood mitigation. It’s a difficult thing to get right, particularly judging the day to day releases of excess water.
The politicians know that. They know there is likely to be flak when things go wrong. As there is and as they have! They are smart and wise enough to distance themselves from all that.
The deaths you will have read about, and which incidentally were far fewer than in last years bush fires (did you say the same thing about them?), were well upstream of the dam. Even with the benefit of hindsight it is difficult to know how they could have been avoided. They were the result of flash floods – they have always happened – and always will.
Finally the swing from one extreme to another, drought and fires last year and floods this year, has been predicted, at least as early as 2006, by the CSIRO as I showed in my last link.
What part of “The report indicates that although there will be more dry days, when it does rain, rainfall is likely to be more intense.” didn’t you understand?
Max,
I’ve always thought that the general public’s understanding of statistics and randomness was quite poor. For example its quite common to hear Brisbane-ites say that they are just going to get on with rebuilding in the same spot on the grounds that it will be another 49 years before our next “one in 50 year” event occurs. I haven’t the heart to tell them that it’s just as likely to happen all over again next year, or even that there’s plenty of 2011 left and it could just as well happen all over again again next month.
However, I’m surprised at you using a argument like “A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -46 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -41 SET IN 1954.” to try to discredit AGW.
So that’s 5 degrees. Add an extra one to account for the actual warming if you like. Right? Even if you assume that all warming can be expressed as a given number of degrees worldwide, I don’t think anyone is actually saying that it’s warmed by quite that much since 1954 which it would, of course, have had to do to prevent the previous record being broken.
It seems such an obvious thing, I’m surprised I’ve had to point it out to you.
Max,
OK you’re forgiven, for once. I should have noticed that the “low record” argument was from Brute, not you.
He’s used that one before, and I’ve explained why its wrong before too.
It probably needs another half dozen explanations. But I understand that is quite normal for those with intellectual disabilities.
I see………through your elitist eyes the general public is too stupid to realize whether or not it’s cold outside……therefore, decisions regarding economics, business decisions and tax policy should be left to the select few………the “chosen ones” that have bestowed upon themselves divine knowledge of how best we “little people” should live our lives.
On top of that, your expertise in the field allows you to ridicule comments regarding the topic even though you’ve failed to realize who wrote them.
Just so I understand…………According to Warmist religious doctrine, brushfires and drought are iron clad proof of man made global warming……but record low temperatures and floods are not? Flooding and record low temperatures, blizzards, record cold winters are just naturally occurring events (acts of God) or can be explained as “anomalies” and should not enter into the discussion.
But wait, Alarmists attribute the recent flooding to the effects of man made global warming (“climate change”………now “climate disruption”) as well as record cold winters, blizzards and prolonged rainy seasons to economic prosperity also?
Thanks for straightening me out Pete……we “little people” could’nt figure out how to tie our shoes without guidance from giant brains like yours.
I suggest you read a bit about Walter Lippman (American Progressive and protégé of Edward Bernays as well as advisor to numerous “Progressive” American Presidents).
Possibly one day you’ll realize the extreme level of arrogance that resides within you.
By the way Pete, your subservient/infantile reliance on others to do your thinking for you is (partially) not your fault.
The fact that you are mentally and emotionally incapable of providing/thinking for yourself or your family is part of your cultural upbringing.
You’ve been indoctrinated through generations of social engineering rooted in monarchical/oligarchic dependence…………
Americans on the other hand are schooled in the ideas of self reliance and independence.
Americans rejected the ideas of being led around by the nose by aristocrats two centuries ago.
You’ll catch up eventually.
Brute,
I don’t think that I’m of particularly aristocratic lineage. Except that 99% of the population of England, and those of English family origin, are descended from HenryIII. Or, are they?
If you reckon you’re good enough at stats, and good enough at thinking for yourself, to either show that statement to be either true or untrue, please be my guest.
I’ll work out what I feel is the likely answer shortly.
I’m not sure what is going on at the Daily Mail but credit where credit is due – they have actually managed to get something right for once
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1349031/2010-second-warmest-year-records-began-1850.html