Here are a couple of stories that have been very popular with the media recently.First, there is a sad tale of vanishing ice and an endangered species:
Emperor penguins face extinction
Emperor penguins, whose long treks across Antarctic ice to mate have been immortalised by Hollywood, are heading towards extinction, scientists say.
Based on predictions of sea ice extent from climate change models, the penguins are likely to see their numbers plummet by 95% by 2100.
That level of decline could wreak havoc on the delicate Antarctic food chain.
The research is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7851276.stm
So we have a heart-wrenching story, based entirely on the predictions of computer models, which was published in one of the most prestigious America science journals, PNAS. (The National Academy of Sciences is the American equivalent of the Royal Society.)
Then there is this thoroughly scary offering:
Global warming is ‘irreversible’
A team of environmental researchers in the US has warned many effects of climate change are irreversible.
The scientists concluded global temperatures could remain high for 1,000 years, even if carbon emissions can somehow be halted.
The report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Colorado comes as President Obama announces a review of vehicle emission standards.
It appears in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7852628.stm
The authors relied on measurements as well as many different models to support the understanding of their results.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090126_climate.html
Now we have two eye-catching papers published recently in PNAS that rely on what computer models tell us about the future, in this case not just a century ahead, but over a whole millennium.
At a time when global warming seems to have been on hold for nearly a decade, it is hardly surprising that climate scientists are having to rely on predictive models that tell them about the future, rather than on empiric evidence of climate change at the present time, to keep their research in the news. Vanishing glaciers, melting sea ice, rising sea levels and violent hurricanes are becoming harder to find. Worse still, most of North America and Europe are experiencing an unusually cold and snowy winter. The general public can hardly be expected to take climate change scare stories too seriously at the moment, as they only have to step outside the door to realise that it is pretty cold. To them, that is clear evidence that global warming is not happening, for the moment at least, even if this carries little weight scientifically.
For climate scientists, long range predictions have great advantages: Continue reading »
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