These polluters will not pay

Posted by TonyN on 13/06/2008 at 5:06 pm The Climate 6 Responses »
Jun 132008

Since starting Harmless Sky I’ve posted a couple of times on opinion polls that suggest the UK government and the green movement are not carrying public opinion with them in quite the way they might wish. (here and here) Then the results of the local elections on 1st May, when the Liberals and the Green Party failed to make any headway, seemed to confirm that there is a high degree of global warming scepticism among voters. (here)

Perhaps it was no coincidence that, about the same time as the elections, Opinium Research came up with some rather startling findings. In a poll carried out between 11th – 14th April and published on 2nd May, more than 70% of respondents said that they would not be willing to pay higher taxes in order to fund projects to combat climate change. Continue reading »

If you are looking for the continuation of the New Statesman discussion that ended today, then click on the appropriate link under Categories in the left-hand sidebar.

On 22nd May 2008 the Cambrian News published a letter from a Dr David Lewis with the heading, ‘Assembly stubbornly refused to answer our questions’. As Dr Lewis is the chairman of the Snowdonia Society’s Policy Committee, and therefor at the heart of the campaign to prevent Kemble Air Services’ taking over Llanbedr Airfield, it is reasonable to suppose that he would take this opportunity to make the best possible case for the society’s opposition.

Here is the first sentence of Dr Lewis’ letter:

Everyone in Ardudwy would like to see new jobs make up for those lost when Llanbedr airfield was closed four years ago.

Now, at first glance, there is nothing in the least bit controversial here, but who exactly is this Dr Lewis Continue reading »

In a previous post (here) I reported that 150 of the world’s leading climate modellers had gathered in Reading to discuss their need for computers one thousand times more powerful than the present generation of supercomputers. Now I want to look at another couple of aspects of this conference.
Here is an extract from the delegate’s official website under the heading Background:

The reality of climate change has been accepted by the world. Thanks to the sustained, comprehensive and objective assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a consensus, with a high degree of confidence, has emerged in the scientific community that human activities are contributing to climate change. A systematic program of numerical experimentation with climate models during the past 40 years has played a crucial role in creating this scientific consensus, and in its acceptance by the world.

http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModellingSummit/Background.html

Now is it just me, or does this sound like someone whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up? Surely if what this paragraph says is true and incontrovertible, then there is no need to restate it to the very people who have brought about this situation? Continue reading »

In my last post I considered the information that the Snowdonia Society is using to brief its members on the issues that underlie their campaign to prevent Kemble Air Services taking over Llanbedr Airfield. The statement on their campaign webpage is very short, and gives the impression that a major new development within the Snowdonia National Park is about to take place. In fact Kemble Air Services aviation plans involve no more than the resumption of flying operations, after a gap of just four years in the airfield’s busy 70-year history, on what will probably be a greatly reduced scale.

Now I want to look at the links on this page to press coverage of the society’s campaign. The obvious intention of these is to inform members and other visitors about what is going on.

Here is a selection of headlines on these linked pages: Continue reading »

I’ve been looking at the Snowdonia Society’s website where they have a page devoted to their campaign to prevent Kemble Air Services re-starting flying operations at Llanbedr Airfield.

On BBC Radio Cymru yesterday, the director of the Snowdonia Society, Alun Pugh, assured listeners that he has a mandate from his members for the campaign to derail Kemble’s plans. But for this to be true, it is of course necessary for the membership to have access to impartial and accurate information about the issues. Given the massive support for Kemble in this area, I thought it would be worth having a look at what the society is telling their members about this campaign.

Here is the headline on their page:

Llanbedr Airport – Latest

This seems very strange, as there is no such place as Llanbedr Airport, nor has there ever been. Throughout its long history this establishment has never been known as anything other than Llanbedr Airfield; an accurate description. But I suppose that if you are running a campaign you cannot afford to be too fussy about such niceties as getting a name wrong. If the term airport gives potential supporters the impression that this remote rural airfield is about to become a rival to Heathrow, then why worry about it being thoroughly misleading?

The term airport implies a major centre for air travel, and there is absolutely no question of any such development taking place at Llanbedr.

Next, we find this: Continue reading »

At another blog, I have been asked the following questions by ‘MH’:

Tony, I have no wish to talk about global warming here, but I would appreciate two things:

1. Can you substantiate how busy the airfield was before? How many flights a day and roughly how big the planes were? Obviously no-one cares about what things were like in the war, but how things were over the 10 or 20 years before it closed.

2. Can you tell what restrictions have been imposed (either through Planning Regulations or as part of the lease) on either the number, size or type of planes that can use the airfield now … or if there are night restrictions?

In the six years between 1998 and 2004, when QinetiQ ceased to operate from Llanbedr Airfield, there were 53,000 aerodrome and 14,000 radar movements. Continue reading »

It’s not often that rural communities get good news these days. Foot and Mouth disease, Blue Tongue, rural poverty and crime, pitifully small farm incomes and the rising costs of transport seem to crowd into the headlines on a regular basis. So it is a pleasure to be able to report some good news for a change.

Four years ago, the airfield at Llanbedr, on the shores of Cardigan Bay in North Wales’ beautiful Snowdonia National Park, ran into difficulties after QinetiQ gave up their lease. In spite of a long and determined campaign to find a new operator it is only in the last week that we have heard that Kemble Air Services is planning to start operations before the end of the summer.

The airfield has been a part of life in Llanbedr for nearly seventy years, so few people alive today can remember a time when it was not part of the community; several generations of some families having worked there. Servicemen who were stationed here when it was an RAF station during and after WWII have married local girls and come to live in the village. Others who came here in the course of their careers have been reluctant to leave an area that had become their home and have settled in and around Llanbedr when they retired.

There is undoubtedly something incongruous about celebrating the contribution an airfield has made to a national park, but Continue reading »

This week some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists have been attending a little get-together in Reading (yes really) with the snappy title of the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Their aspirations, as described on the official conference website, are quite modest:

The underlying goal of the summit is no less than to prepare a blueprint to launch a revolution in climate prediction.

http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModellingSummit/Background.html

Now this surely is something that we should all applaud. If one had to pick a single area of climate science that has contributed most towards convincing policy makers and the public that our planet faces a deadly peril from anthropogenic climate change, then the output from models would be a very obvious candidate. It is these vastly complex programs, run on the world’s most powerful supercomputers, which warn of rising temperature trends during the rest of this century.

Observed temperature change over the last hundred-and-fifty years is not really that scary (see here), but predictions from models, lovingly featured in IPCC reports, are definitely not for the faint-hearted. The problem is that these are just predictions; estimates of what may happen if a lot of assumptions about the way that the climate works are right. We will have no way of telling whether they come even close to the truth for decades. Continue reading »

Yesterday I pointed out that none of the contestants in the recent UK local government elections seem to have benefited from the hype surrounding the supposed dangers of anthropogenic climate change: here. There is also agreement among political commentators of all persuasions that there has been a convulsive change in the UK’s political landscape and that this has nothing to do with the government suffering from mid-term unpopularity; the expectations of the electorate have shifted fundamentally.

During a decade when politics in the UK has been conducted at a level of superficiality that, until now, has cultivated public indifferent to the electoral process, there are one or two MPs who stand out from the mass of lobby-fodder for their willingness to speak their mind in spite of the consequences. Such a person is Bob Marshall-Andrews, a somewhat haggard and care-warn barrister turned Labour MP for Medway. In recent years he has become the conscience of the Labour Party, never failing to ask awkward questions when his party’s policies are at odds with its stated principles. Of course many of his colleagues would like to portray his outbursts as disloyalty, but others with clearer consciences perhaps may secretly admire his integrity.

So at the weekend there was no surprise in finding Marshall-Andrews laying into his party leadership in our most right-wing Sunday newspaper under the headline, ‘Captain Brown is steering his ship onto the rocks’. At the end of his article, after lambasting those among his colleagues who would like to write off the recent electoral disaster as a short-term blip, he thoughtfully suggested a list of six measures that would help steer the ship clear of all danger. One of them was this:

 

Announce that there will be no third runway at Heathrow or anywhere else, and [impose] levies on oil companies and aviation to enhance renewables research.

Now no one in their right mind relishes the idea of increased noise pollution that an expanded London Airport would cause over the most densely populated part of the country, and those who believe that CO2 released from aircraft is affecting the climate would certainly welcome such decisiveness. But allowing an aviation bottleneck to become worse is not very smart either. Efficient communications is an essential part of any healthy economy.

Nor would many people object to research being directed at developing energy sources that will eventually reduce our dependency on fossil fuels. Cheap, reliable and plentiful sources of energy are also essential to economic growth. But why should the aviation and oil companies be forced to fund research into alternatives energy that will be directed and administered by central government? The age of cheap and secure oil supplies seems to be drawing to a close and market forces will lead them to explore these new technologies in any case.

What Marshall-Andrews is suggesting sounds very much like punitive taxation, but what is their crime?

These industries are responsible for carbon emissions because they provide goods and services that we all consume and see as being essential for our well-being, not because their managements are bogeymen driven by a desire to destroy the planet. Without oil and aviation, economies worldwide would crumble and our living standards with them. The poor, as ever would be the first to suffer.

Recent troubles in the financial markets are a sign of hard times ahead, and governments are going to have to look far more closely at the economic consequences of their actions in coming years. If these putative offenders against environmental rectitude are to be penalised by ‘levies’, the increased costs will, in any case, be passed on to the consumer.

Fear of climate change may have been a useful political device when the going was good, but from now on everyone will be looking at the bottom line far more carefully than they did during a decade of global economic growth and stability. The days when governments could confidently disburse funds to subsidise any politically convenient initiative are over. Politicians will have to be certain that they can justify expenditure if they are to retain the support of an impoverished electorate who are expected to pay the bills.

The so-called ‘battle against climate change’ will be expensive, and taxpayers expect value for money. A far higher standard of evidence that anthropogenic global warming is taking place will be required than is presently available. Perhaps what little evidence there is will at last be considered objectively, rather than through the filter of environmental activism, commercial interest and political expediency.

Bob Marshall-Andrews seems oblivious to the fact that that the advice he is offering to ‘Captain Brown’ is that he should set a course that will inevitably cause his ship to founder. The days when self-indulgent idealists in affluent countries could exploit fashionable concerns about a dimly perceived threat are over. We face a period of economic turbulence that may be more or less severe, but there are few reasons for thinking that it will be short lived. Our leaders will be facing a far more hard-headed electorate who demand realism, not vague but well meaning promises to save the planet.

The old certainties that New Labour have thrived on during a decade of worldwide economic growth and prosperity have lost their political magic. Already the sanctimonious, controlling, and authoritarian approach that Bob Marshall-Andrews is advocating seems to belong to another age.

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