These polluters will not pay

Posted by TonyN on 13/06/2008 at 5:06 pm The Climate 6 Responses »
Jun 132008

Since starting Harmless Sky I’ve posted a couple of times on opinion polls that suggest the UK government and the green movement are not carrying public opinion with them in quite the way they might wish. (here and here) Then the results of the local elections on 1st May, when the Liberals and the Green Party failed to make any headway, seemed to confirm that there is a high degree of global warming scepticism among voters. (here)

Perhaps it was no coincidence that, about the same time as the elections, Opinium Research came up with some rather startling findings. In a poll carried out between 11th – 14th April and published on 2nd May, more than 70% of respondents said that they would not be willing to pay higher taxes in order to fund projects to combat climate change. Continue reading »

If you are looking for the continuation of the New Statesman discussion that ended today, then click on the appropriate link under Categories in the left-hand sidebar.

In a previous post (here) I reported that 150 of the world’s leading climate modellers had gathered in Reading to discuss their need for computers one thousand times more powerful than the present generation of supercomputers. Now I want to look at another couple of aspects of this conference.
Here is an extract from the delegate’s official website under the heading Background:

The reality of climate change has been accepted by the world. Thanks to the sustained, comprehensive and objective assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a consensus, with a high degree of confidence, has emerged in the scientific community that human activities are contributing to climate change. A systematic program of numerical experimentation with climate models during the past 40 years has played a crucial role in creating this scientific consensus, and in its acceptance by the world.

http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModellingSummit/Background.html

Now is it just me, or does this sound like someone whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up? Surely if what this paragraph says is true and incontrovertible, then there is no need to restate it to the very people who have brought about this situation? Continue reading »

This week some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists have been attending a little get-together in Reading (yes really) with the snappy title of the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Their aspirations, as described on the official conference website, are quite modest:

The underlying goal of the summit is no less than to prepare a blueprint to launch a revolution in climate prediction.

http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModellingSummit/Background.html

Now this surely is something that we should all applaud. If one had to pick a single area of climate science that has contributed most towards convincing policy makers and the public that our planet faces a deadly peril from anthropogenic climate change, then the output from models would be a very obvious candidate. It is these vastly complex programs, run on the world’s most powerful supercomputers, which warn of rising temperature trends during the rest of this century.

Observed temperature change over the last hundred-and-fifty years is not really that scary (see here), but predictions from models, lovingly featured in IPCC reports, are definitely not for the faint-hearted. The problem is that these are just predictions; estimates of what may happen if a lot of assumptions about the way that the climate works are right. We will have no way of telling whether they come even close to the truth for decades. Continue reading »

May 012008

Myles Allen first hit the headlines when a research project that he was involved with issued a press release (26th Jan 2005) predicting that temperatures could rise by 11° C even if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is limited to only double the level before the Industrial Revolution. Given that temperatures only 6°C higher than today are considered to be catastrophic, this warning received extensive and highly sensationalised coverage in the media. But all was not quite as it appeared to be.

There is a transcript of part of a BBC Radio4 programme made by Simon Cox and Richard Vadon some time later called Overselling Climate Change, see here. This gives a brief but fascinating account of the controversy that followed. It is essential reading for anyone who wishes to follow the rest of this post.

On 21st April 2006, soon after this programme was broadcast, even RealClimate.net, the most strident advocates for anthropogenic global warming on the net, put up a post entitled How not to write a press release criticising Myles Allen’s handling of the affair. This carried some authority, as the proprietors of this blog are all leading figures in climate research. Normally in this field, dog does not eat dog, but in this case the way in which climateprediction.net had publicised their research seemed to be so unacceptable that general condemnation was called for. Continue reading »

If you read my post a few days ago on strange goings on at the BBC, you may remember that Jo Abbess, the climate activist, had various quite eye-catching things to say. This in one of them:

Several networks exist that question whether global
warming has peaked, but they contain very few actual scientists, and
the scientists that they do contain are not climate scientists so have
no expertise in this area.

The view that only scientists and climate scientists at that can express valid opinions on global warming is common among warmists. Or it is when anyone outside the charmed circle on which the IPCC smiles criticises research or asks awkward questions. And there are so many questions to ask, about predictions of future climate derived from computer models, the role that water vapour plays in controlling atmospheric temperature or what influence the sun has on natural climate variation. It is all too easy to dismiss unwelcome arguments by belittling the questioner’s qualifications in the hope that no one will notice that the substance of what is being said has not been considered at all.

This is very strange when you think about it. Do you really need to have a degree in economics to ask perfectly rational, and perhaps even perceptive, questions about the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s budget? Should patients with no medical training be completely uncritical of the treatment that they receive from doctors? Do you need a degree in sports management to assess the chances of Manchester United winning the FA cup? But one is expected to believe that climate science is different, a world in which only initiates should be listened to or believed. And where your qualifications are more important than what you say.

Some unkind souls at the Climate Audit Message Board have been doing research of their own, not into the causes of global warming, but into the qualifications of some of the people at the very top in the strange world of climate change. These are the results:

On another site, the “qualification” of global warming skeptics was raised.

These required qualification in physics, “climate science”, or a related field in order to have a relevant voice in the climate debate [the warmists say].

But how about the very top of the IPCC?

Here we have as Chair: Rajendra K. Pachauri, PhD in Industrial Engineering and Economics.

We also have 3 Vice-Chairs:
Richard Odingo (Kenya), graduate degree in Geography
Mohan Munasinghe (Sri Lanka), Engineering, PhD in Physics, Economics
Yuri A.Izrael (Russia), PhD in Physics, Climate Science

Courtesy of Maxa

And then this:

Yvo De Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Committee on Climate Change has “a technical degree in social work”.

Courtesy of Audrey Levin.

What more can one say?

Apr 222008

Not long ago I was talking to a friend who is doing an academic course in renewable and sustainable energy. He is a physicist who acts as a reviewer for a couple of learned journals and also has his own instrument manufacturing company that he has built on the research that earned him his PhD. Not surprising he has a very good mind that has been enhanced by the combination of academic distinction and the more practical problem solving skills required in the commercial world.

When we had last met, he was worried. His company was going through difficult times no fault of his own and he had a wife and family to consider. He was well aware that government cutbacks in funding for his field would make it very difficult, if things went seriously wrong with the business, to find work in the only profession for which he was qualified; as a research scientist. Jokingly I suggested that he should dream up some spurious application that his instruments might have in climate research, and then sit back while the grants rolled in. That was when he said that he was doing the renewables course, just as insurance against hard times.

When we met again, the other day, we talked about the course. Continue reading »

When news of an extraordinary exchange of emails between the BBC’s Environment Analyst, Roger Harrabin, and a climate change activist called Jo Abbess broke earlier this month, it aroused my innate scepticism. It appeared that a fanatical climate change activist had effortlessly bullied our revered national broadcasting service into changing a story that displeased her. How could this be?

It may surprise warmists, who have come to use ‘sceptic‘ as a term of abuse, that many who question what the public are being told about anthropogenic climate change apply the same standards of scepticism to both sides of the debate.

Was it possible, I asked myself, that the BBC had really allowed itself to be pushed around by an unknown extremist? Was this story an example of disinformation emanating from those shadowy forces that warmists so often blame for the general public’s reluctance to embrace their beliefs? Was someone trying to discredit the BBC? Might the emails have been fabricated? It all looked just a bit too neat and tidy to be true. Was it really possible that a fanatical member of the militant pressure group Campaign Against Climate Change could influence mainstream news coverage of a topic as important as climate change?

Here is a rather sensationalised, but quite accurate, version of what happened:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=216v5AoQcFQ

For those of you who don’t have the software to play this, or would like to see all the evidence in black and white, here is the full story:

On 4th April the BBC put a news item on their website written by Harrabin. The headline was “Global temperatures ‘to decrease'”; quite surprising for an organisation dedicated to spreading alarm about climate change. What followed was based on an announcement by Michel Jarraud, head of the World Meteorological Organizations. Now this is not a body that can in any way be called sceptical about global warming; it is one of the UN agencies that set up the IPCC. Given the BBC’s proclivity for making the most of a global warming scare story, and the impeccable source of its information, there is no reason to suspect that rumours of a downturn in temperatures were being exaggerated.

The BBC’s report started like this:

Global temperatures ‘to decrease’

Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007 due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organization’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.

But experts have also forecast a record high temperature within five years.

[It also said this:]

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

This did not please Jo Abbess, who sent an email to Harrabin headed, ‘Correction Demanded: “Global temperatures ‘to decrease'”.

Dear Roger,

Please can you correct your piece published today entitled “Global
temperatures ‘to decrease'” :-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm [this link is to the revised version of course]

1. “A minority of scientists question whether this means global
warming has peaked”
This is incorrect. Several networks exist that question whether global
warming has peaked, but they contain very few actual scientists, and
the scientists that they do contain are not climate scientists so have
no expertise in this area
.

2. “Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007”
You should not mislead people into thinking that the sum total of the
Earth system is going to be cooler in 2008 than 2007. For example, the
ocean systems of temperature do not change in yearly timescales, and
are massive heat sinks that have shown gradual and continual warming.
It is only near-surface air temperatures that will be affected by La
Nina, plus a bit of the lower atmosphere.

Thank you for applying your attention to all the facts and figures available,

jo.

My emphasis

Referring to Jo Abbess’ first point, it would seem that she is not a scientist either, merely a dedicated activist.

Harrabin’s response to these criticisms of his story by someone who clearly has a limited knowledge of the subject and distinctly partisan views was patient but firm: Continue reading »

Part 1 of this post (here) dealt with an opinion poll published by Ipsos MORI last summer. This showed a surprising level of global warming scepticism among the UK public and also indicated a high degree of confusion among the respondents.Before moving on to discuss a couple of more recent polls, I want to look at some more results from the July ‘07 poll. These seem to confirm the impression that public opinion on this very important subject may be shaped more by a failure to understand the issues than by informed judgements. Here is an example:

Q2 Which of the actions on this list, if any, do you think will do the most to help reduce climate change?

%

Recycling 40
Developing cleaner engines for cars 34
Avoiding creating waste in the first place 22
Making fewer car journeys 17
Using less electricity 16
Taking fewer foreign holidays 11
Using public transport 10
Walking or cycling 10
Buying locally-grown food 7
Using water sparingly 4
Reusing bottles/containers 4
People having fewer children 4
Buying organic produce 1
None of these 2
Don’t know 3

More recycling seems a very strange choice to head this list. Although reprocessing waste may lead to a minor reduction in CO2 emissions, it is unlikely that a scientist would seriously claim that this could have a really dramatic effect; cuts in emissions from electricity generation, industry, and transport would be far more relevant. So why do so many people seem to hold this view? Continue reading »

This post is mainly for people who have arrived here from a link at Steve McIntyre’s ClimateAudit blog. If you haven’t come from there, you will need to look here and then here to understand what it’s about.

Transcript from ‘Overselling Climate Change?’, A BBC Radio4 programme presented by Simon Cox and broadcast in April 2006. Continue reading »

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